1006 Blyth Rd · Victoria, TX 77904

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1967 0.56 ac lot $94/sqft · 36% below area Est $290k · 36% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to renovate a house and turn it into your dream home. Located on a big corner lot, this 3+2 is filled with potential. The family room Is open to the kitchen and features a lovely wood burning fireplace. The living & dining rooms are partially separated but could be completely opened to create a large, open living space. Two car attached garage. Take a look today! Seller may consider owner financing.

Key facts

• Big corner lot
• Open living space
• 0.56 acre lot

Tags

• BIG CORNER LOT
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• OPEN LIVING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $166k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $166k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Vickers El (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 505 students, 50% FRL); Harold Cade Middle (math 39% / reading 45%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 740 students, 47% FRL); Victoria West H S (math 18% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,157 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,766 students, 59% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Victoria ISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,708 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.45%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $289,776
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -36.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Luke Ct	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,008 (+2%)	1mo	$353,000	$176	86
609 Mason Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,766 (-10%)	1mo	$317,900	$180	69
111 Belmoor Ln	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,893 (-4%)	3mo	$347,500	$184	67
109 Raindance Ct	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,982 (+1%)	1mo	$394,900	$199	63
608 Berwick St	0.53mi	3/2.0	2,112 (+7%)	2mo	$268,900	$127	61
204 Windwood Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,701 (-14%)	2mo	$289,900	$170	60
301 Cobblestone Ct	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,879 (-4%)	3mo	$377,900	$201	60
604 Mason Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,684 (-14%)	1mo	$314,900	$187	60
102 Persimmon Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,025 (+3%)	3mo	$399,900	$197	60
502 Berwick St	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,013 (+2%)	2mo	$319,885	$159	60
306 Tuscany Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,871 (-5%)	1mo	$333,000	$178	55
114 Raindance Ct	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,138 (+9%)	2mo	$444,900	$208	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-36,601
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-40,099
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77904

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$368 /mo · $4,411/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,791

Max offer price $166,327

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1	-5% $-53	+0% $-106	+5% $-158	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-237	-5% $-171	+0% $-106	+5% $-40	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-59	base $-106	+0.5pp $-154	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $185,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $185,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $185,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $185,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-04-09
    status Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Great opportunity to renovate a house and turn it into your dream home. Located on a big corner lot, this 3+2 is filled with potential. The family room Is open to the kitchen and features a lovely wood burning fireplace. The living & dining rooms are partially separated but could be completely opened to create a large, open living space. Two car attached garage. Take a look today! Seller may consider owner financing.

11. 2026-04-06
    historical Active Under Contract 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Great opportunity to renovate a house and turn it into your dream home. Located on a big corner lot, this 3+2 is filled with potential. The family room Is open to the kitchen and features a lovely wood burning fireplace. The living & dining rooms are partially separated but could be completely opened to create a large, open living space. Two car attached garage. Take a look today! Seller may consider owner financing.

12. 2026-02-26
    listed $185,000 Active 426-char remark

    Show marketing remark (426 chars)

    Great opportunity to renovate a house and turn it into your dream home. Located on a big corner lot, this 3+2 is filled with potential. The family room Is open to the kitchen and features a lovely wood burning fireplace. The living & dining rooms are partially separated but could be completely opened to create a large, open living space. Two car attached garage. Take a look today! Seller may consider owner financing.

13. 2021-06-04
    soldstatus
14. 2018-09-06
    historical
15. 2018-09-03
    price $199,000
16. 2018-08-17
    price $207,900
17. 2018-08-17
    status Active
18. 2018-08-04
    historical
19. 2018-07-24
    price $211,900
20. 2018-07-09
    price $215,900
21. 2018-06-22
    listed $219,900 Active
22. 2017-11-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,411 · $368/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,411 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$4,411
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,050
• After-tax cash flow: $-218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,061
• Household income: $83,130
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1133.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 20% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.51%
• Current HPI: 142.2501
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2026-04-06 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $185,000 CTXMLS
• 2021-06-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-09-06 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2018-09-03 Price Changed $199,000 CTXMLS
• 2018-08-17 Price Changed $207,900 CTXMLS
• 2018-08-17 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2018-08-04 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2018-07-24 Price Changed $211,900 CTXMLS
• 2018-07-09 Price Changed $215,900 CTXMLS
• 2018-06-22 Listed $219,900 CTXMLS
• 2017-11-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,411 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.