Ash Plan · Bryan, TX 77808

$1

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,780 sqft · SingleFamily · 391 Days on market

Good condition $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ash is a 5 bedroom, 3 and a half bathroom with an upstairs bonus room that could also be a bedroom. The large front porch invites you into an open concept home. This chefs-dream kitchen features everything you need to host the best family gatherings. Use your high-end gas range in style with the custom, real wood decorative vent hood and custom cabinetry. In the oversized island you have additional storage, the sink, dishwasher and a separate trash drawer. You are sure to have plenty of space for all things in your double wall oven. Adjacent to the kitchen is the pantry of your dreams, overflowing with storage, an extra sink and a beverage cooler. The direct line of sight to the living room and dining room is a must-have these days. Off the garage is the mud room with a large drop zone, another sink and more cabinetry. The primary bedroom is a great size with tons of natural light. Style and space is what comes to mind when you see this primary ensuite bathroom. Equipped with a freestanding tub, double vanities, a knee space, full tile walk-in shower, private toilet room and a great sized closet. The closet has direct access to a fantastic laundry room with folding counters and an additional sink. With two additional bedrooms and a bathroom on the main level, friends and family can pile in! Going up the stairs you have an oversized bonus room and private bathroom. Head outside on your back porch to enjoy your outdoor kitchen.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Double wall oven
• Chefs-dream kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT HOME
• CHEFS-DREAM KITCHEN
• HIGH-END GAS RANGE
• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• DOUBLE WALL OVEN

🏗️ New construction. The $1 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $517,884.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $1).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#99 in TX, #3,341 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities C-.
• Bryan ISD (urban): math 30% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #608 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 391 days — a 12% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 776825.3% of price.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 391 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.80%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $517,884
• List price: $1
• Delta: -100.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4605 River Valley Dr	0.57mi	4/3.5	2,725 (-2%)	2mo	$575,000	$211	69
3504 Abingdon Cv	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,665 (-4%)	15mo	$600,000	$225	67
3516 Chantilly Path	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,469 (-11%)	9mo	$475,000	$192	61
3448 Lockett Hall Cir	0.62mi	4/3.5	2,581 (-7%)	3mo	$495,000	$192	56
3305 Durant Ct	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,467 (-11%)	10mo	$799,000	$324	48
4663 River Rock Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,478 (-11%)	3mo	$499,500	$202	46
3264 Rose Hill Ln	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,617 (-6%)	13mo	$624,900	$239	46
3428 Lockett Hall Cir	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,641 (-5%)	22mo	$514,900	$195	44
3320 Lewisburg Ct	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,427 (-13%)	18mo	$475,000	$196	31
5489 FM 1179	0.74mi	3/3.0 (-1)	3,096 (+11%)	15mo	$560,000	$181	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-167,014
• Equity at exit: $77,218

10-year hold

• IRR: -49.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-252,267
• Equity at exit: $44,777

Cash invested: $145,007 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77808

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 371

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,716
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$647 /mo · $7,768/yr
• Insurance: −$216
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$611
• Net cashflow: $-1,306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,562

Max offer price $328,961

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $129,471
• Closing costs: $15,537
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3024 Teller Dr Bryan, TX	4.0	2.0	1979	$2,600	$1.31	21d	1	1.04mi
2915 Bombay Ct Bryan, TX	3.0	2.0	2085	$2,900	$1.39	13d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: trashgas

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1 Active 391 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 389 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 388 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $1 Active 386 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 385 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $1 Active 383 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1 Active 382 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1 Active 381 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1 Active 376 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1 Active 375 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 374 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 373 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $1 Active 372 DOM
16. 2025-05-23
    listed $1 Active 1449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1449 chars)

    Ash is a 5 bedroom, 3 and a half bathroom with an upstairs bonus room that could also be a bedroom. The large front porch invites you into an open concept home. This chefs-dream kitchen features everything you need to host the best family gatherings. Use your high-end gas range in style with the custom, real wood decorative vent hood and custom cabinetry. In the oversized island you have additional storage, the sink, dishwasher and a separate trash drawer. You are sure to have plenty of space for all things in your double wall oven. Adjacent to the kitchen is the pantry of your dreams, overflowing with storage, an extra sink and a beverage cooler. The direct line of sight to the living room and dining room is a must-have these days. Off the garage is the mud room with a large drop zone, another sink and more cabinetry. The primary bedroom is a great size with tons of natural light. Style and space is what comes to mind when you see this primary ensuite bathroom. Equipped with a freestanding tub, double vanities, a knee space, full tile walk-in shower, private toilet room and a great sized closet. The closet has direct access to a fantastic laundry room with folding counters and an additional sink. With two additional bedrooms and a bathroom on the main level, friends and family can pile in! Going up the stairs you have an oversized bonus room and private bathroom. Head outside on your back porch to enjoy your outdoor kitchen.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,010
• − Property taxes: −$7,768
• − Insurance: −$2,589
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,793
• − Management: −$2,793
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$15,066
• Taxable loss: −$25,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,098
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,570/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property.
• Both Outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal at night.
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Both Outdoor lighting — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal at night. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bryan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811790
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $41,895
• Composite: 26.26/100
• National rank: #7253
• State rank: #608 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bryan

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #3341

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bryan, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 101,772
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,797
• Household income: $113,343
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 110.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 6% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -94.49%
• Current HPI: 216.65
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B