349 S Brookside · South Lockport, NY 14094

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition 61 ac lot Est $38k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very nicely maintained 3 Bdrm 1 Bath in a Great Park with a Pool. Large covered side Patio on one side & a concrete open patio on the opposite side. Two Sheds for extra storage. Lot Rent is $505 & covers: Water, Garbage, Taxes & The Pool. No offers will be Accepted until after the potential buyer fills out an application at the Clubhouse & is accepted by The Park. Showings begin Saturday 3/28/26

Key facts

• 61.3 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1976

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $851 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.9% vs local median 1.5% in South Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $39,301 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 91.39%
• DSCR: 5.07
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $38,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
349 S Brookside	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,100 (0%)	0mo	$37,500	$34	100
378 Birchwood	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,095 (-0%)	2mo	$35,000	$32	79
288 Fox Hunt Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (+6%)	2mo	$45,600	$39	79
125 Sherwood Dr	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-4%)	2mo	$55,500	$53	74
210 Ash St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+10%)	0mo	$75,000	$62	70
464 Jim Kelly Dr	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (+10%)	2mo	$55,000	$45	68
149 Crestwood Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+14%)	7mo	$25,000	$20	63
1158 Timberwood Ct	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,064 (-3%)	6mo	$60,000	$56	54
1352 Fernwood Dr	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (+5%)	4mo	$39,000	$34	53
1289 Norwood Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,064 (-3%)	5mo	$37,000	$35	52
533 Applewood Dr	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-8%)	5mo	$35,000	$35	48
1108 Lockwood Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-8%)	0mo	$30,000	$30	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 92.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.36×
• Total profit: $48,714
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 95.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.41×
• Total profit: $116,311
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,426 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $851

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $878	-5% $865	+0% $851	+5% $837	+10% $823
Rent	-10% $738	-5% $795	+0% $851	+5% $907	+10% $963
Rate	-1.0pp $871	-0.5pp $861	base $851	+0.5pp $841	+1.0pp $830

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5834 S Transit Rd Lockport, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	2d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $39,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,113
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,369
• − Management: −$1,369
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $10,181
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,443
• After-tax cash flow: $7,767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to its exterior and interior to improve its condition and value. Painting and updating the exterior would significantly enhance curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Paint — Paint is chipping and faded in multiple areas.
• Moderate Siding — Siding appears weathered and may need repainting or replacement.
• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Cabinets appear dated but not structurally damaged.
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Fixtures appear functional but may need updating.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and updating the exterior — Fresh paint and updated siding would significantly improve curb appeal and value.
• Both Updating the kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Modernizing the kitchen would enhance functionality and aesthetics, attracting more buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint is chipping and faded in multiple areas.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Siding · Siding appears weathered and may need repainting or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen cabinets · Cabinets appear dated but not structurally damaged.	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Fixtures appear functional but may need updating.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$19,000–71,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and updating the exterior — Fresh paint and updated siding would significantly improve curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Modernizing the kitchen would enhance functionality and aesthetics, attracting more buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lockport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #11642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $39,900 WNYREIS