9 Elder St · Alva, FL 33920

$150,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Condo public records · 280 Days on market

Built 1973 $301/mo HOA · 15% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property Information: Resident owned 55+ plus community located on the Caloosahatchee waterway offering its residents a communal marina, fishing dock and boat ramp with Gulf access! This spacious 2 bedroom 2 bath turnkey home is move in ready. Located in the heart of the park. Living room and separate dining room off of the kitchen. Featuring a large light and bright Florida room/den. Newly renovated kitchen including new appliances. Oak Park Village is an extremely active community that has low HOA fees of $301 a month and includes a community building, community park, swimming pool, exercise room, library and marina. 1 dog or cat under 25lbs allowed. Extra Storage Available for rent on a

Key facts

• Fishing dock
• Community park
• Florida room

Tags

• FISHING DOCK
• BOAT RAMP
• GULF ACCESS
• FLORIDA ROOM
• COMMUNAL MARINA
• COMMUNITY PARK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with conditions (call for details)
• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee (includes grounds maintenance, recreation facilities, road maintenance, street lights, trash, water); Community clubhouse; Community pool; Senior community; 299 units in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 2 covered carport spaces
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Private sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story; Modular/Prefab with vinyl siding; Resale property; Faces west
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Outbuilding; Community pool; East exposure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Freezer; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom; Florida room
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Shutters on windows; Furnished; Breakfast bar; Built-in features; Eat-in kitchen; Family/Dining room; Kitchen island; Living/Dining room; Pantry; Separate shower; Shower only; Cable TV
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-92 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (10.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#514 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 456 active listings in the ZIP; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 280 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 280 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.56%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-29,758
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-31,812
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33920

• Home prices YoY: -11.8%
• Active inventory: 456
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $826/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$301
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,083

Max offer price $133,758

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $301 · $3,612/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 280 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 279 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 276 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 272 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 270 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 265 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 263 DOM
10. 2025-09-09
    listed $150,000 Active
11. 2025-06-25
    historical
12. 2024-08-22
    price $165,000
13. 2024-08-07
    price $169,900
14. 2024-06-27
    listed $174,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $826 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$419/yr (+$35/mo · 50.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AE · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,598
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$826
• − Insurance: −$5,868
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − HOA: −$3,612
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,250
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$780
• After-tax cash flow: $-323/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alva

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #514
• US rank: #9471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alva, FL
• Population (ZIP): 7,689

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 5% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 5% German 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.83%
• Current HPI: 355.9229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-14.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-09 Listed $150,000 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2024-08-22 Price Changed $165,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-08-07 Price Changed $169,900 FORTMLS
• 2024-06-27 Listed $174,900 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $826 · +22.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.