102 Forest Dr Unit 223 (plus lockout 225) interval I · Waitsfield, VT 05674

$210,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · Condo · 93 Days on market

Built 2006 Fair condition $180/sqft · 63% below area $763/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience ultimate mountain luxury in this beautifully furnished and equipped two-bedroom quarter share suite at Sugarbush Resort's Lincoln Peak, featuring views of the slopes and courtyard from the living area and both bedrooms. Enjoy effortless ski-in/ski-out access and indulge in year-round recreation and events in Vermont’s Mad River Valley. Interval ownership offers 13 weeks annually on an equitable rotating schedule, delivering the perfect blend of lifestyle flexibility and resort convenience without the demands of full-time ownership. As an owner at Clay Brook, you’ll enjoy an array of elevated amenities, including: Concierge-level ski and boot valet service, underground parking with EV charging station, a well-appointed onsite fitness center, private storage locker, year-round heated outdoor pool and hot tubs, plus complimentary membership to the Sugarbush Health & Recreation Club and more. Inquire today to learn more.

Key facts

• Views of the slopes
• $763 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• SKI-IN SKI-OUT ACCESS
• VIEWS OF THE SLOPES
• YEAR-ROUND HEATED OUTDOOR POOL
• ONSITE FITNESS CENTER
• PRIVATE STORAGE LOCKER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $210k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (21.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.1% in Waitsfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#37 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.

Recommended offer $164,371 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $565,222
• List price: $210,000
• Delta: -62.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $94,793
• Equity at exit: $189,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $295,948
• Equity at exit: $407,984

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05674

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,404 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$262 /mo · $3,150/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$763
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-315

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,803

Max offer price $164,371

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-170	-5% $-243	+0% $-315	+5% $-388	+10% $-460
Rent	-10% $-505	-5% $-410	+0% $-315	+5% $-220	+10% $-125
Rate	-1.0pp $-210	-0.5pp $-262	base $-315	+0.5pp $-370	+1.0pp $-425

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $763 · $9,156/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymdoorman
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $210,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $210,000 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 81 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $210,000 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 74 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 73 DOM
17. 2026-03-18
    listed $210,000 Active 959-char remark

    Show marketing remark (959 chars)

    Experience ultimate mountain luxury in this beautifully furnished and equipped two-bedroom quarter share suite at Sugarbush Resort's Lincoln Peak, featuring views of the slopes and courtyard from the living area and both bedrooms. Enjoy effortless ski-in/ski-out access and indulge in year-round recreation and events in Vermont’s Mad River Valley. Interval ownership offers 13 weeks annually on an equitable rotating schedule, delivering the perfect blend of lifestyle flexibility and resort convenience without the demands of full-time ownership. As an owner at Clay Brook, you’ll enjoy an array of elevated amenities, including: Concierge-level ski and boot valet service, underground parking with EV charging station, a well-appointed onsite fitness center, private storage locker, year-round heated outdoor pool and hot tubs, plus complimentary membership to the Sugarbush Health & Recreation Club and more. Inquire today to learn more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,150
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,308
• − Management: −$2,308
• − HOA: −$9,156
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$6,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,680
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The property is in fair condition with average interior and exterior features. It requires some landscaping and painting to enhance its curb appeal and overall value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Landscaping — Minimal landscaping could benefit from some updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Painting — Improves the home's appearance and can add value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Minimal landscaping could benefit from some updates.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$500–3,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Painting — Improves the home's appearance and can add value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Waitsfield

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #9382

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,678

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.62%
• Current HPI: 361.2902
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $210,000 PrimeMLS