6949 Sundial Dr · Lakeland, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 7/10 · Major
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 8/10 · Major
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +9.9/15.0
- Cash flow +7.8/30.0
- Condition / age +5.0/5.0
- Schools +4.0/10.0
- Livability +3.9/5.0
- Rent growth +3.0/5.0
- 1% rule +2.4/10.0
- DSCR +1.9/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$284,990
6949 Sundial Dr · Lakeland, FL 33813
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,452 sqft · SingleFamily
· 114 Days on market
Built 2027
6,284 sqft lot
2-car garage
$196/sqft
· 5% below area
Est $301k · 5% under
$13/mo HOA · 1% of rent
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Pre-Construction. To be built. Welcome to Touchstone in Lakeland, FL! Picture coming home to a peaceful neighborhood designed for comfort, connection, and everyday ease. Whether you're splashing in the community pool, relaxing in the shaded cabana, or letting the kids burn off energy at the playground, Touchstone makes it easy to enjoy downtime close to home. Touchstone puts you moments from Lakeland’s best conveniences and attractions. You’ll enjoy quick access to US Hwy 98, making errands, work, and weekend outings a breeze. Choose from our line of open-concept floorplans, including both one- and two-story options.
Key facts
- Community pool
- Shaded cabana
- Included appliances
Tags
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated excellent.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-320 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (16.3% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (26.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $210k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
- Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Spessard L Holland Elementary (math 47% / reading 49%, grade D, #1,171 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 766 students, 52% FRL); Bartow Middle School (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #421 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,046 students, 63% FRL); Bartow Senior High School (math 26% / reading 46%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 2,125 students, 44% FRL).
- Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 415 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$210,392
(26.2% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.74% ✗
- Cap rate
- 4.94%
- Cash-on-cash
- -4.82%
- DSCR
- 0.79
- GRM
- 11.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $301,190
- List price
- $284,990
- Delta
- -5.38%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 1 within 2.0 mi
Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6688 Millstone Ave | 0.04mi | 3/2.0 | 1,486 (+2%) | 0mo | $301,190 | $203 | 94 |
| 4583 Great Blue Heron Dr | 2.15mi | 3/2.0 | 1,459 (+0%) | 0mo | $307,000 | $210 | 64 |
| 6403 Lakeland Highlands Rd | 2.14mi | 3/2.0 | 1,571 (+8%) | 0mo | $320,000 | $204 | 51 |
| 2060 Ashboro Pl | 2.21mi | 4/2.0 (+1) | 1,824 (+26%) | 0mo | $334,900 | $184 | 35 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -25.8%
- Equity multiple
- 0.13×
- Total profit
- $-69,037
- Equity at exit
- $42,493
10-year hold
- IRR
- -26.6%
- Equity multiple
- -0.21×
- Total profit
- $-96,207
- Equity at exit
- $24,641
Cash invested: $79,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 30 active · 22 under contract
- Months of supply
- 180.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $299,990 ($196/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 95 d
- This list price
- 27% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +5.8% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 33813
- Rents YoY
- 1.8%
- Active inventory
- 415
- Price-to-rent
- 11.3×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $2,104 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,495
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$356 /mo · $4,275/yr
- Insurance
- −$119
- HOA
- −$13
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$442
- Net cashflow
- $-320
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$2,509
Max offer price
$238,627
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-123 | -5% $-222 | +0% $-320 | +5% $-419 | +10% $-517 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-487 | -5% $-404 | +0% $-320 | +5% $-237 | +10% $-154 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-177 | -0.5pp $-248 | base $-320 | +0.5pp $-394 | +1.0pp $-469 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $71,248
- Closing costs
- $8,550
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 12 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4017 Lana Dr Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1651 | $1,851 | $1.12 | 63d | 1 | 0.49mi |
| 3842 Featherwood Trl Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1490 | $2,100 | $1.41 | 25d | 1 | 0.89mi |
| 3819 Resting Robin Ave Unit NA Bartow, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1824 | $2,299 | $1.26 | 72d | 1 | 0.95mi |
| 3305 Lounging Wren Ln Bartow, FL | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1824 | $2,299 | $1.26 | 72d | 1 | 0.97mi |
| 2702 Red Egret Dr Bartow, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1555 | $2,140 | $1.38 | 72d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 4134 April St N Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1256 | $1,910 | $1.52 | 72d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 5967 Hillside Heights Dr Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1393 | $1,800 | $1.29 | 19d | 1 | 1.28mi |
| 5967 Hillside Heights Dr Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1393 | $1,995 | $1.43 | 72d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 3858 Whitedove Dr Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1280 | $1,450 | $1.13 | 68d | 1 | 1.34mi |
| 3972 Whitedove Dr Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 1.5 | 1011 | $1,670 | $1.65 | 27d | 1 | 1.38mi |
| 6018 Charloma Dr Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1734 | $2,500 | $1.44 | 72d | 1 | 1.42mi |
| 5970 Chaps Dr Lakeland, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1874 | $2,281 | $1.22 | 46d | 1 | 1.46mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Home warranty includedGreen features include HVAC MERV 8+ filtration, low-VOC flooring and paint/finish, ventilation, drip irrigation, and low-flow fixtures
- Financial info
- Other annual assessment: $2,500Total monthly fees: $13Total annual fees: $156Lease restrictions apply
- HOA & community
- HOA: RYAN HOMESMonthly HOA $13 (includes maintenance of grounds and recreational facilities)Community poolPets allowed
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached 2-car garage (18x20)DrivewayGarage door opener
- Security
- Smoke detector(s)
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableWater availableOther utilities available
- Home design
- Single family residenceOne storyNew construction (projected completion 2026-11-30)Faces west
- Construction
- Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilder: RYAN HOMES (Model: MAHOGANY)Builder license CBC1257565Pre-construction conditionBuilt as green/energy-efficient with appliances, efficient lighting, thermostat, and energy-efficient windows
- Exterior features
- Covered patioPatioHurricane shuttersSliding doorsSidewalkPaved lotFl. friendly/native landscapingIrrigation equipment
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRefrigerator
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms
- Flooring
- CarpetCeramic tile
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Eat-in kitchenKitchen/family room comboStone countersThermostatWalk-in closet(s)ENERGY STAR qualified windowsSmoke detector(s)
- Laundry & utility
- WasherDryerInside laundryInside utility
HOA detail $13/mo · $156/yr
- Likely covers
- pool
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $284,990 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $284,990 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $284,990 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $284,990 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $284,990 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $284,990 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $284,990 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $284,990 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $284,990 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $284,990 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $284,990 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $284,990 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $284,990 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $284,990 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $284,990 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-07-19days on market $284,990 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $284,990 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $284,990 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $284,990 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $284,990 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $284,990 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $284,990 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-07-11days on market $284,990 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $284,990 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $284,990 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $284,990 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $284,990 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-07-03days on market $284,990 Active 78 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $284,990 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $284,990 Active 76 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $284,990 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $284,990 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $284,990 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $284,990 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $284,990 Active 71 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $284,990 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-06-23days on market $284,990 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $284,990 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-06-18days on market $284,990 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $284,990 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $284,990 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $284,990 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $284,990 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $284,990 Active 55 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $284,990 Active 54 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $284,990 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-06-07pricedays on market $284,990 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $279,990 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $279,990 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $279,990 Active 47 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 7/10 Severe
- Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $25,247
- − Mortgage interest
- −$15,964
- − Property taxes
- −$4,275
- − Insurance
- −$1,425
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,020
- − Management
- −$2,020
- − HOA
- −$156
- − Depreciation
- −$8,291
- Taxable loss
- −$8,903
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,137
- After-tax cash flow
- $-1,708/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos
100/100
None rehab
This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential for further value increases through minor updates and improvements.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
- Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves functionality. ↑
- Both Adding smart home features — Enhances convenience and adds value to the property. ↑
- Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value to the property. ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Spessard L Holland Elementary
D
FL #1,171/2,144
Nat'l #14,249/41,679
Middle
Bartow Middle School
F
FL #421/571
Nat'l #7,581/14,009
High
Bartow Senior High School
F
FL #359/667
Nat'l #9,405/17,239
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Polk
- NCES district ID
- 1201590
- Math proficiency
- 39% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 43% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,979
- Composite
- 34.74/100
- National rank
- #5132
- State rank
- #62 of 73 in FL
B
Composite livability gradescore 77/100
Livability — Lakeland
- Score
- 77/100
- State rank
- #206
- US rank
- #3179
Category grades
Amenities F
Commute F
Cost of living A+
Crime C+
Employment D+
Housing A+
Health & safety A+
User ratings A+
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- County
- Polk County · 752,975 people
- City population
- 277,690
- Metro
- Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 38,674
- Household income
- $99,497
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 12% of renters
Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 752,975 people
- By 2030
- 804,621 · +6.9%
- By 2040
- 906,117 · +20.3%
- By 2050
- 1,000,476 · +32.9%
- By 2075
- 1,197,520 · +59.0%
- By 2100
- 1,271,518 · +68.9%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (70%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 3%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
- Common ancestry
- Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 10% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 0%
Political lean MEDSL · Polk
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -224.20%
- Current HPI
- 296.1207
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 1.81%
- Metro
- Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
+5.6% since first listed3 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-06 Price Changed $284,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-12 Price Changed $279,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-04-16 Listed $269,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…