1927 Dubourg Ave · Shively, KY 40216

$150,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily · 24 Days on market

Built 2011 9,121 sqft lot Est $193k · 22% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention Investors: Built in 2011, this spacious 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath single-family home is a strong addition to any investor's portfolio. Offering modern construction compared to older housing stock, this property features a functional layout, generous bedroom sizes, and low-maintenance potential. The home provides solid rental appeal for long-term tenants seeking comfortable living space at an affordable price point. With ample room for families, a convenient floor plan, and strong income-producing potential, this property is ideal for buy-and-hold investors or those looking to expand their rental portfolio. Don't miss this opportunity to secure a newer-built investment property with last

Key facts

• 9,121 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2011

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Woodmere Heights subdivision
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story home; Built in 2011
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built in 2011; Above-grade finished living area: 1,288
• Exterior features: Lot roughly 0.21 acres (approx. 57 x 160)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; One HVAC unit
• Interior features: Five total rooms; First-floor laundry; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $234 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.3% in Shively — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#78 in KY, #2,520 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, employment D, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 210 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,364 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.67%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3000 Garey Ln	0.35mi	4/1.0	1,283 (-0%)	18mo	$150,000	$117	66
2920 Garey Ln	0.44mi	4/1.0	1,368 (+6%)	10mo	$165,000	$121	59
2511 Neblett Ave	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,234 (-4%)	2mo	$193,000	$156	54
1716 Kennedy Rd	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,225 (-5%)	3mo	$200,000	$163	54
2522 Neblett Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (+4%)	11mo	$210,000	$156	45
1812 Farnsley Rd	0.65mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,370 (+6%)	13mo	$205,000	$150	41
1701 Marlow Rd	0.45mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,452 (+13%)	18mo	$189,000	$130	38
3810 Fitzgerald Rd	0.37mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,120 (-13%)	21mo	$210,000	$188	36
2313 Ratcliffe Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,425 (+11%)	11mo	$192,000	$135	34
2311 Allston Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,158 (-10%)	11mo	$135,000	$117	33
2029 Appleton Ln	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,110 (-14%)	13mo	$169,350	$153	33
2308 Allston Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,095 (-15%)	8mo	$60,000	$55	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-12,936
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,814
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40216

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $694/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,148

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $276	+0% $234	+5% $191	+10% $149
Rent	-10% $120	-5% $177	+0% $234	+5% $291	+10% $348
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $272	base $234	+0.5pp $195	+1.0pp $155

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2311 Plantation Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	988	$1,200	$1.21	17d	1	0.41mi
1731 Sonne Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,300	$1.29	17d	1	0.50mi
2629 Olive St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1120	$1,500	$1.34	25d	1	0.84mi
1522 Clara Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,150	$1.00	25d	1	1.05mi
3313 Penway Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	2.0	1142	$1,645	$1.44	25d	1	1.08mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	684	$1,350	$1.97	16d	4	1.08mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Unit 3530 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	886	$1,350	$1.52	4d	1	1.08mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	684	$1,350	$1.97	25d	2	1.08mi
2008 Foxhurst Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,875	$1.17	25d	1	1.09mi
3627 Parthenia Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,245	$1.38	25d	1	1.26mi
1622 Beech St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1108	$1,445	$1.30	17d	1	1.34mi
1301 Lillian Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	974	$1,250	$1.28	17d	1	1.34mi
1545 Catalpa St Louisville, KY	4.0	1.5	1760	$1,545	$0.88	4d	1	1.37mi
1708 W Gaulbert Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	936	$975	$1.04	25d	1	1.48mi
1147 Lincoln Ave Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1323	$1,295	$0.98	4d	1	1.49mi
1244 Algonquin Pkwy Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1136	$1,400	$1.23	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $150,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
6. 2026-05-15
   historical Active Under Contract
7. 2026-05-13
   listed $150,000 Active
8. 2010-10-12
   historical
9. 2009-08-31
   listed $10,250
10. 2009-06-17
    historical
11. 2008-12-17
    listed $13,000
12. 2008-10-28
    historical
13. 2007-10-28
    listed $12,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $694 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$596/yr (+$50/mo · 86.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$694
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$82
• After-tax cash flow: $2,720/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Shively

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #2520

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shively, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 44,047
• Household income: $56,441
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 43% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.72%
• Current HPI: 269.5447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1062.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $150,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-10-12 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2009-08-31 Listed $10,250 Metro Search MLS
• 2009-06-17 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2008-12-17 Listed $13,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2008-10-28 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2007-10-28 Listed $12,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $694 · -6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.