43 Chestnut St · Commerce, GA 30529

$305,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2023 5,227 sqft lot $143/sqft · 13% below area Est $353k · 13% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and beautifully designed, this 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space in the heart of Commerce. The open floor plan creates an inviting flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is the centerpiece of the home, featuring a large island with plenty of workspace and seating, perfect for gathering with family and friends. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the home, offering both durability and style. The main level owner's suite provides convenience and privacy, while the additional bedrooms and bathrooms offer plenty of space for family or guests. With its functional layout, modern finishes, and great location near shopping, dining, and schools, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Great location
• Large island

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE ISLAND
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• MAIN LEVEL OWNER'S SUITE
• GREAT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-310 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.3% in Commerce — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Commerce City (town): math 49% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #19 of 174 in GA (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,491 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.35%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,501
• List price: $305,000
• Delta: -13.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
184 Ashford Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,198 (+3%)	2mo	$365,000	$166	72
208 Piedmont St	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,894 (-11%)	2mo	$355,000	$187	65
200 College Ave	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,300 (+8%)	8mo	$389,000	$169	52
210 College Ave	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,300 (+8%)	8mo	$399,000	$173	52
530 Clayton St	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,200 (+3%)	15mo	$385,000	$175	49
495 Shankle Hts	0.74mi	4/3.0	2,276 (+7%)	6mo	$305,000	$134	47
994 Lakeview Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5	2,374 (+12%)	3mo	$439,000	$185	44
162 Ashford Ln	0.42mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,444 (+15%)	10mo	$415,000	$170	40
309 Williford St	0.63mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,308 (+8%)	12mo	$344,900	$149	37
134 Millwood Dr	0.45mi	3/4.0 (-1)	1,900 (-11%)	24mo	$419,000	$221	34
92 Belmont Park Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,918 (-10%)	6mo	$364,900	$190	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $139,958
• Equity at exit: $274,768

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $416,189
• Equity at exit: $592,548

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30529

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,713/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $-310

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,577

Max offer price $250,253

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
173 Madison St Commerce, GA	4.0	2.0	1727	$2,200	$1.27	13d	1	0.35mi
548 Madison St Commerce, GA	3.0	2.5	1850	$2,100	$1.14	13d	1	0.72mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $305,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $305,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,900 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $319,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $319,900 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $319,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $319,900 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $319,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    price $319,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 44 DOM
19. 2026-05-13
    price $325,000 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Spacious and beautifully designed, this 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space in the heart of Commerce. The open floor plan creates an inviting flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is the centerpiece of the home, featuring a large island with plenty of workspace and seating, perfect for gathering with family and friends. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the home, offering both durability and style. The main level owner's suite provides convenience and privacy, while the additional bedrooms and bathrooms offer plenty of space for family or guests. With its functional layout, modern finishes, and great location near shopping, dining, and schools, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience.

20. 2026-05-13
    price $325,000 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Spacious and beautifully designed, this 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space in the heart of Commerce. The open floor plan creates an inviting flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is the centerpiece of the home, featuring a large island with plenty of workspace and seating, perfect for gathering with family and friends. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the home, offering both durability and style. The main level owner's suite provides convenience and privacy, while the additional bedrooms and bathrooms offer plenty of space for family or guests. With its functional layout, modern finishes, and great location near shopping, dining, and schools, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience.

21. 2026-04-15
    listed $335,000 New 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Spacious and beautifully designed, this 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space in the heart of Commerce. The open floor plan creates an inviting flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is the centerpiece of the home, featuring a large island with plenty of workspace and seating, perfect for gathering with family and friends. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the home, offering both durability and style. The main level owner's suite provides convenience and privacy, while the additional bedrooms and bathrooms offer plenty of space for family or guests. With its functional layout, modern finishes, and great location near shopping, dining, and schools, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience.

22. 2026-04-11
    historical $335,000 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Spacious and beautifully designed, this 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space in the heart of Commerce. The open floor plan creates an inviting flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is the centerpiece of the home, featuring a large island with plenty of workspace and seating, perfect for gathering with family and friends. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the home, offering both durability and style. The main level owner's suite provides convenience and privacy, while the additional bedrooms and bathrooms offer plenty of space for family or guests. With its functional layout, modern finishes, and great location near shopping, dining, and schools, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience.

23. 2026-04-02
    listed $335,000 Active 852-char remark

    Show marketing remark (852 chars)

    Spacious and beautifully designed, this 4 bedroom, 3.5 bath home offers over 2,000 square feet of comfortable living space in the heart of Commerce. The open floor plan creates an inviting flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas, making it ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is the centerpiece of the home, featuring a large island with plenty of workspace and seating, perfect for gathering with family and friends. Luxury vinyl plank flooring runs throughout the home, offering both durability and style. The main level owner's suite provides convenience and privacy, while the additional bedrooms and bathrooms offer plenty of space for family or guests. With its functional layout, modern finishes, and great location near shopping, dining, and schools, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience.

24. 2024-05-20
    soldstatus $295,000 Sold
25. 2024-05-20
    soldstatus $295,000 Closed
26. 2024-05-20
    soldstatus $295,000
27. 2024-03-09
    status Under Contract
28. 2024-02-28
    historical Active Under Contract
29. 2024-02-27
    historical Active Under Contract
30. 2024-02-09
    listed $299,000 New
31. 2024-02-09
    listed $299,000 Active
32. 2024-01-25
    soldstatus $225,000
33. 2024-01-24
    soldstatus $200,000 Sold
34. 2024-01-24
    soldstatus $200,000 Closed
35. 2024-01-02
    status Under Contract
36. 2024-01-02
    status Pending
37. 2023-12-01
    price $275,000
38. 2023-12-01
    price $275,000
39. 2023-11-22
    price $299,900
40. 2023-11-22
    price $299,900
41. 2023-11-10
    price $324,900
42. 2023-11-10
    price $324,900
43. 2023-10-18
    price $339,900
44. 2023-10-18
    price $339,900
45. 2023-09-29
    listed $343,000 New
46. 2023-09-29
    listed $343,000 Active
47. 2022-01-04
    soldstatus $58,000 Closed
48. 2022-01-04
    soldstatus $58,000 Sold
49. 2021-12-10
    status Pending
50. 2021-12-10
    status Under Contract

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,713 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,713 · $309/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$3,713
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable loss: −$9,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,201
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Commerce City
• NCES district ID: 1301440
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $40,945
• Composite: 41.1/100
• National rank: #3567
• State rank: #19 of 174 in GA

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #14693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Commerce, GA
• County: Jackson County · 50,436 people
• City population: 12,874
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• Population (ZIP): 12,874
• Household income: $62,168
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 297.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.53%
• Current HPI: 458.5304
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.25%
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+550.0% since first listed

34 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $325,000 FMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $325,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $335,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-11 Coming Soon $335,000 GAMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $335,000 FMLS
• 2024-05-20 Sold (Public Records) $295,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-20 Sold (MLS) $295,000 FMLS
• 2024-05-20 Sold (MLS) $295,000 GAMLS
• 2024-03-09 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-02-28 Contingent — FMLS
• 2024-02-27 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2024-02-09 Listed $299,000 FMLS
• 2024-02-09 Listed $299,000 GAMLS
• 2024-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-24 Sold (MLS) $200,000 FMLS
• 2024-01-24 Sold (MLS) $200,000 GAMLS
• 2024-01-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-01-02 Pending — FMLS
• 2023-12-01 Price Changed $275,000 GAMLS
• 2023-12-01 Price Changed $275,000 FMLS
• 2023-11-22 Price Changed $299,900 GAMLS
• 2023-11-22 Price Changed $299,900 FMLS
• 2023-11-10 Price Changed $324,900 GAMLS
• 2023-11-10 Price Changed $324,900 FMLS
• 2023-10-18 Price Changed $339,900 GAMLS
• 2023-10-18 Price Changed $339,900 FMLS
• 2023-09-29 Listed $343,000 FMLS
• 2023-09-29 Listed $343,000 GAMLS
• 2022-01-04 Sold (MLS) $58,000 GAMLS
• 2022-01-04 Sold (MLS) $58,000 FMLS
• 2021-12-10 Pending — FMLS
• 2021-12-10 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-12-06 Listed $50,000 GAMLS
• 2021-12-06 Listed $50,000 FMLS

Property tax history

+52.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,713 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.