Three Little Birds Plan · Riverside, CA 92501

$202,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured · 402 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Southern California Has Been Waiting 34 Years for This… And It's Finally Here. For the first time in over three decades, a brand-new manufactured home community has arrived in Southern California and it's already turning heads. In fact, 40% of the homes are already sold. By summer, this opportunity may be completely gone! Imagine owning a brand-new home starting at just $199,995. Modern design. Energy-efficient features. Open floor plans. The kind of home you're proud to invite friends and family into. Right now, we're offering limited-time incentives, including $7,500 on select three-bedroom homes that you can use your way (excluding down payment). That's money back in your pocket to personalize your new home. Want more? • Optional solar packages to help lower energy costs • Premium homesites overlooking a resort-style pool and recreation area • Financing options available - including zero down on approved credit This isn't just a home. It's a lifestyle upgrade. It's security. It's community. It's the moment you stop renting and start building equity in something that's yours. And with nearly half already sold, waiting could mean missing out entirely. Open Houses Every Weekend! Tour all three beautifully designed model homes and see why so many buyers have already said yes. Opportunities like this don't come around often - in fact, the last time was 34 years ago. Call today before someone else claims your future address!!

Key facts

• Dog park
• 6 inch walls
• Dual pane windows

Tags

• SECURITY GATES
• PLAYGROUND
• DOG PARK
• POOL RECREATIONAL AREA
• 6 INCH WALLS
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS

🏗️ New construction. The $202,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $183,249.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $203k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $203k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 3.0% in Riverside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#337 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, commute B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D, crime F.
• Riverside Unified (urban): math 36% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #574 of 1,400 in CA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 41 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,174/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($82k/yr) (locally 900% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 402 days — a 12% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,635 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 402 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.02%
• DSCR: 2.29
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,249
• List price: $202,995
• Delta: 10.78%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3444 Center St #13	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,223 (-2%)	1mo	$202,033	$165	96
3444 Center St #11	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	12mo	$215,000	$179	83
2851 S La Cadena Dr #130	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	7mo	$159,000	$147	60
2851 S La Cadena #123 Dr #123	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+8%)	20mo	$185,000	$138	58
2851 S La Cadena Dr #72	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (+8%)	22mo	$185,000	$138	52
2851 S La Cadena #100	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	20mo	$140,000	$122	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $40,485
• Equity at exit: $27,323

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $102,704
• Equity at exit: $15,844

Cash invested: $51,310 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92501

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,174 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$961
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$229 /mo · $2,749/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$667
• Net cashflow: $1,241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,603

Max offer price $183,249

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,812
• Closing costs: $5,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
716 N Orange St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$4,999	$4.63	1d	1	0.45mi
1054 Orange St Unit 207 Riverside, CA	2.0	1.0	735	$1,750	$2.38	24d	1	0.87mi
1151 Clark St Riverside, CA	4.0	2.0	1248	$2,800	$2.24	43d	1	0.98mi
19173 Sequoia Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1204	$3,250	$2.70	1d	1	1.16mi
7440 Fig Grove Ln Unit 7440 Riverside, CA	3.0	3.0	1257	$1,100	$0.88	43d	1	1.17mi
7512 Fig Grove Ln Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1410	$3,500	$2.48	1d	1	1.18mi
7281 Olive Grove St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.5	1257	$3,075	$2.45	43d	1	1.21mi
3812 Carrotwood St Riverside, CA	3.0	3.0	1381	$2,900	$2.10	43d	1	1.22mi
3516 Tyco Dr Riverside, CA	2.0	2.0	1037	$2,600	$2.51	43d	1	1.31mi
3647 Elliotta Dr Riverside, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$2,895	$2.76	43d	1	1.33mi
3523 Strong St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1126	$3,200	$2.84	10d	1	1.42mi
3745 Strong St Riverside, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	782	$1,995	$2.55	4d	2	1.42mi
3845 Strong St Riverside, CA	3.0	2.0	1032	$2,800	$2.71	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $202,995 Active 402 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $202,995 Active 401 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $202,995 Active 400 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $202,995 Active 399 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $202,995 Active 397 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $202,995 Active 396 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $202,995 Active 393 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $202,995 Active 392 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $202,995 Active 391 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $202,995 Active 388 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $202,995 Active 387 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $202,995 Active 386 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $202,995 Active 385 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $202,995 Active 384 DOM
15. 2026-04-10
    price $202,995 1471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1471 chars)

    Southern California Has Been Waiting 34 Years for This… And It's Finally Here. For the first time in over three decades, a brand-new manufactured home community has arrived in Southern California and it's already turning heads. In fact, 40% of the homes are already sold. By summer, this opportunity may be completely gone! Imagine owning a brand-new home starting at just $199,995. Modern design. Energy-efficient features. Open floor plans. The kind of home you're proud to invite friends and family into. Right now, we're offering limited-time incentives, including $7,500 on select three-bedroom homes that you can use your way (excluding down payment). That's money back in your pocket to personalize your new home. Want more? • Optional solar packages to help lower energy costs • Premium homesites overlooking a resort-style pool and recreation area • Financing options available - including zero down on approved credit This isn't just a home. It's a lifestyle upgrade. It's security. It's community. It's the moment you stop renting and start building equity in something that's yours. And with nearly half already sold, waiting could mean missing out entirely. Open Houses Every Weekend! Tour all three beautifully designed model homes and see why so many buyers have already said yes. Opportunities like this don't come around often - in fact, the last time was 34 years ago. Call today before someone else claims your future address!!

16. 2025-11-22
    price $199,995 1471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1471 chars)

    Southern California Has Been Waiting 34 Years for This… And It's Finally Here. For the first time in over three decades, a brand-new manufactured home community has arrived in Southern California and it's already turning heads. In fact, 40% of the homes are already sold. By summer, this opportunity may be completely gone! Imagine owning a brand-new home starting at just $199,995. Modern design. Energy-efficient features. Open floor plans. The kind of home you're proud to invite friends and family into. Right now, we're offering limited-time incentives, including $7,500 on select three-bedroom homes that you can use your way (excluding down payment). That's money back in your pocket to personalize your new home. Want more? • Optional solar packages to help lower energy costs • Premium homesites overlooking a resort-style pool and recreation area • Financing options available - including zero down on approved credit This isn't just a home. It's a lifestyle upgrade. It's security. It's community. It's the moment you stop renting and start building equity in something that's yours. And with nearly half already sold, waiting could mean missing out entirely. Open Houses Every Weekend! Tour all three beautifully designed model homes and see why so many buyers have already said yes. Opportunities like this don't come around often - in fact, the last time was 34 years ago. Call today before someone else claims your future address!!

17. 2025-05-13
    price $189,995 1471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1471 chars)

    Southern California Has Been Waiting 34 Years for This… And It's Finally Here. For the first time in over three decades, a brand-new manufactured home community has arrived in Southern California and it's already turning heads. In fact, 40% of the homes are already sold. By summer, this opportunity may be completely gone! Imagine owning a brand-new home starting at just $199,995. Modern design. Energy-efficient features. Open floor plans. The kind of home you're proud to invite friends and family into. Right now, we're offering limited-time incentives, including $7,500 on select three-bedroom homes that you can use your way (excluding down payment). That's money back in your pocket to personalize your new home. Want more? • Optional solar packages to help lower energy costs • Premium homesites overlooking a resort-style pool and recreation area • Financing options available - including zero down on approved credit This isn't just a home. It's a lifestyle upgrade. It's security. It's community. It's the moment you stop renting and start building equity in something that's yours. And with nearly half already sold, waiting could mean missing out entirely. Open Houses Every Weekend! Tour all three beautifully designed model homes and see why so many buyers have already said yes. Opportunities like this don't come around often - in fact, the last time was 34 years ago. Call today before someone else claims your future address!!

18. 2025-05-13
    listed $187,995 Active 1471-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1471 chars)

    Southern California Has Been Waiting 34 Years for This… And It's Finally Here. For the first time in over three decades, a brand-new manufactured home community has arrived in Southern California and it's already turning heads. In fact, 40% of the homes are already sold. By summer, this opportunity may be completely gone! Imagine owning a brand-new home starting at just $199,995. Modern design. Energy-efficient features. Open floor plans. The kind of home you're proud to invite friends and family into. Right now, we're offering limited-time incentives, including $7,500 on select three-bedroom homes that you can use your way (excluding down payment). That's money back in your pocket to personalize your new home. Want more? • Optional solar packages to help lower energy costs • Premium homesites overlooking a resort-style pool and recreation area • Financing options available - including zero down on approved credit This isn't just a home. It's a lifestyle upgrade. It's security. It's community. It's the moment you stop renting and start building equity in something that's yours. And with nearly half already sold, waiting could mean missing out entirely. Open Houses Every Weekend! Tour all three beautifully designed model homes and see why so many buyers have already said yes. Opportunities like this don't come around often - in fact, the last time was 34 years ago. Call today before someone else claims your future address!!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 27 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,087
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,265
• − Property taxes: −$2,749
• − Insurance: −$916
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,047
• − Management: −$3,047
• − Depreciation: −$5,331
• Taxable income: $12,733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,056
• After-tax cash flow: $11,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new manufactured home is move-in ready with modern design and energy-efficient features. It's part of a new community in Southern California, with limited-time incentives available.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverside Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633150
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,038
• Composite: 40.8/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #574 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Riverside

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #337
• US rank: #11613

Category grades

Amenities C Commute B+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverside, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 367,890
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 22,934
• Household income: $81,886
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 900.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 62% White 27% Two or more races 12% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 2% American 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 41% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.22%
• Current HPI: 457.2511
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.13%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+8.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $202,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-22 Price Changed $199,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $189,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-13 Listed $187,995 Zillow