1527 Chimney Springs Dr · Barrett, TX 77532

$245,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,676 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $268k · 8% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Lennar Houston Home - The Ramsey Floor Plan - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $246,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home; Ramsey plan
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,676; Address: 1527 Chimney Springs Dr, Barrett, TX 77532

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Ramsey plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $246k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2 ($-25/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (0.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,335 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Crosby H S (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,937 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,254 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,160
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13003 Dianna Lee Dr	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-4%)	1mo	$261,990	$163	89
12915 Dianna Lee Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,607 (-4%)	2mo	$261,990	$163	88
12742 Oat Grass Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,676 (0%)	2mo	$286,990	$171	85
1330 Sea Oats Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,676 (0%)	2mo	$288,990	$172	84
1222 Bonnerjee Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-7%)	1mo	$283,990	$182	61
1223 Bonnerjee Dr	0.46mi	4/2.0	1,859 (+11%)	1mo	$292,990	$158	60
12746 Oat Grass Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	1,922 (+15%)	2mo	$302,990	$158	59
1338 Sea Oats Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,922 (+15%)	2mo	$306,990	$160	58
1331 Sea Oats Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,922 (+15%)	2mo	$304,990	$159	58
12734 Oat Grass Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,922 (+15%)	2mo	$307,990	$160	57
1226 Bonnerjee Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+14%)	1mo	$301,990	$159	50
1218 Bonnerjee Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,904 (+14%)	1mo	$272,040	$143	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,263
• Equity at exit: $36,678

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-50,849
• Equity at exit: $21,269

Cash invested: $68,877 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,213 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,290
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$307 /mo · $3,690/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,215

Max offer price $245,690

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $83	+0% $-2	+5% $-87	+10% $-172
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $-89	+0% $-2	+5% $85	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $60	base $-2	+0.5pp $-66	+1.0pp $-131

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,498
• Closing costs: $7,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 633-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,990 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,990 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $245,990 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $246,990 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $246,990 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $246,990 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $246,990 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $246,990 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $246,990 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $246,990 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 594-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listing id $246,990 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 414-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    listed $246,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,779
• − Property taxes: −$3,690
• − Insurance: −$1,230
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,124
• − Management: −$2,124
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$7,156
• Taxable loss: −$4,153
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$997
• After-tax cash flow: $972/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to paint and landscaping would significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modern kitchen appliances improve functionality and appeal
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Kitchen appliances — Modern kitchen appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Barrett

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1335
• US rank: #22991

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Barrett, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B