277 Flintlock Ln · World Golf Village, FL 32095

$384,270

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · Land · 25 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $254/sqft · at area comps Est $387k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Drayton, an open-concept home with charming coastal-inspired curb appeal. This residence offers 4 generously sized bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2-car garage. Luxury vinyl plank flooring extends throughout the main living spaces, seamlessly connecting the gathering room to the enhanced covered lanai for effortless indoor-outdoor living. The upgraded kitchen features beautiful quartz countertops, a complete Whirlpool appliance package, crisp white cabinetry, a white tile backsplash, and an oversized center island ideal for entertaining and casual meals alike. Additional highlights include a Smart Home package, upgraded 8-foot interior doors, included washer and dryer, designer

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Upgraded kitchen
• Open concept home

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT HOME
• COASTAL INSPIRED CURB APPEAL
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• ENHANCED COVERED LANAI
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with park amenity; Monthly association fee of $54; CDD fee applicable

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water-conserving features: Water-smart landscaping and low-flow fixtures
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story
• Construction: Fiber cement and frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front and rear porches; Corner lot; Front and rear sprinkler systems; City street frontage; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Primary bathroom with shower (no tub); Smart home features including smart thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $384k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-381 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (17.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.0% in World Golf Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#168 in FL, #2,512 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 456 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($379k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $279,558 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.25%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $387,096
• List price: $384,270
• Delta: -0.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-89,978
• Equity at exit: $57,296

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-123,308
• Equity at exit: $33,225

Cash invested: $107,596 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32095

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 456
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,796 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,015
• Tax from tax record: −$361 /mo · $4,328/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$587
• Net cashflow: $-381

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,278

Max offer price $316,890

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,068
• Closing costs: $11,528
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 Bluejack Ln Saint Augustine, FL	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,850	$1.85	1d	1	0.50mi
50 Wexford Way St. Augustine, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,592	$2.65	3d	53	0.65mi
50 Ventures Dr St. Augustine, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,020	$2.00	1d	20	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $384,270 Pending 25 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $384,270 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $384,270 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-05-08
   listed $384,270 Active 992-char remark
5. 2026-05-03
   listed $384,270 Active 169-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,328 · $361/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,328 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,328
• − Insurance: −$1,921
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,684
• − Management: −$2,684
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$11,179
• Taxable loss: −$11,422
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,741
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — World Golf Village

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #2512

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: World Golf Village, FL
• County: Saint Johns County · 301,599 people
• City population: 48,288
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,399
• Household income: $136,038
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 101.0

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.44%
• Current HPI: 246.0743
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.77%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $384,270 realMLS