2104 Commissary Cir · Odenton, MD 21113

$200,000

2 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,652 sqft · Townhouse public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1990 1,500 sqft lot $121/sqft · 51% below area $86/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

As Is Short Sale. No Entry Access.

Key facts

• $86 HOA
• Built 1990
• Listed 14 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 3.9% in Odenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#161 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Anne Arundel County Public Schools (suburban): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #10 of 24 in MD (top 42%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,303 units permitted in Anne Arundel County in 2024 (299 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Anne Arundel County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.77%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $407,775
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -50.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2120 Commissary Cir	0.04mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,672 (+1%)	3mo	$405,000	$242	89
2246 Canteen Cir	0.19mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,840 (+11%)	3mo	$425,000	$231	64
220 Arcadia Shores Cir	0.54mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,674 (+1%)	2mo	$409,000	$244	64
163 Langdon Farm Cir	0.44mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,720 (+4%)	4mo	$405,000	$235	63
325 Assembly Point Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (-2%)	1mo	$405,000	$251	49
1976 Camelia Ct	0.74mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,704 (+3%)	3mo	$415,000	$244	49
1811 Sparrow Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,740 (+5%)	4mo	$295,000	$170	49
8221 Stewarton Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,581 (-4%)	1mo	$312,000	$197	47
300 Roff Point Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (-5%)	3mo	$405,000	$258	44
302 Assembly Point Ct	0.72mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,500 (-9%)	3mo	$377,000	$251	39
1847 Hawk Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,460 (-12%)	3mo	$280,000	$192	39
1826 Jaybird Ct	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,460 (-12%)	3mo	$270,000	$185	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,961
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $41,031
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21113

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,681 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$304 /mo · $3,645/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$86
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,926

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $709	-5% $653	+0% $596	+5% $540	+10% $483
Rent	-10% $384	-5% $490	+0% $596	+5% $702	+10% $808
Rate	-1.0pp $697	-0.5pp $647	base $596	+0.5pp $544	+1.0pp $492

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2251 Commissary Cir Odenton, MD	3.0	2.5	1780	$3,250	$1.83	25d	1	0.10mi
2202 Commissary Cir #208 Odenton, MD	3.0	2.5	1736	$2,800	$1.61	18d	1	0.14mi
2128 Colonel Way Odenton, MD	3.0	4.0	1904	$2,995	$1.57	25d	1	0.17mi
185 Hidden Hill Cir Odenton, MD	3.0	2.5	1966	$2,700	$1.37	44d	1	0.44mi
217 Miles River Ct Odenton, MD	3.0	3.5	1966	$2,850	$1.45	15d	1	0.46mi
229 Miles River Ct Odenton, MD	3.0	3.0	1952	$2,795	$1.43	6d	1	0.48mi
231 Kirbys Landing Ct Odenton, MD	3.0	2.5	1716	$2,699	$1.57	44d	1	0.65mi
315 Eagles Landing Ct Odenton, MD	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,250	$1.95	44d	1	0.65mi
300 Gatehouse Ln Odenton, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1045	$2,344	$2.24	3d	43	0.69mi
308 Assembly Point Ct Odenton, MD	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,700	$1.61	25d	1	0.71mi
2014 Crosbyside Ct Odenton, MD	3.0	2.5	1609	$2,700	$1.68	44d	1	0.72mi
1934 Palonia Ct Odenton, MD	3.0	2.5	1612	$2,295	$1.42	25d	1	0.77mi
178 Goldsborough Dr Odenton, MD	3.0	2.5	1672	$2,850	$1.70	25d	1	0.77mi
1934 Hackberry Ct Odenton, MD	3.0	2.5	1612	$2,700	$1.67	25d	1	0.78mi
8595 Pioneer Dr Severn, MD	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,950	$1.83	44d	1	0.79mi
2027 Odens Station Ln Odenton, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$2,457	$2.37	2d	49	0.80mi
8567 Pioneer Dr Severn, MD	3.0	1.0	1068	$2,050	$1.92	44d	1	0.83mi
8429 Pioneer Dr Severn, MD	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,150	$2.01	44d	1	0.84mi
8317 Severn Orchard Cir Severn, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	897	$1,768	$1.97	2d	81	0.89mi
1833 Richfield Dr Severn, MD	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,820	$1.62	2d	8	0.95mi
2008 Thornbrook Way Odenton, MD	3.0	2.5	2120	$3,150	$1.49	12d	1	0.95mi
2005 Town Center Blvd Odenton, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	848	$2,925	$3.45	3d	15	0.98mi
1839 Arwell Ct Severn, MD	3.0	1.0	1054	$2,500	$2.37	25d	1	0.99mi
2965 2nd Army Dr Fort Meade, MD	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1407	$2,325	$1.65	44d	1	1.00mi
1806 Kellington Ct Odenton, MD	3.0	2.5	2184	$3,250	$1.49	13d	1	1.00mi
1807 Arwell Ct Severn, MD	3.0	1.0	1068	$1,900	$1.78	15d	1	1.03mi
4750 English Ave Fort Meade, MD	2.0	2.0	1141	$1,350	$1.18	44d	1	1.29mi
8221 Barrington Ct Unit 41 Severn, MD	3.0	2.5	1740	$2,800	$1.61	6d	1	1.33mi
8203 Barrington Ct Severn, MD	3.0	3.0	1740	$2,595	$1.49	44d	1	1.34mi
8031 Brookstone Ct Severn, MD	3.0	3.0	1692	$2,795	$1.65	6d	1	1.44mi
8001 Laketowne Ct Severn, MD	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1014	$1,989	$1.96	4d	18	1.47mi
1415 Duckens St Odenton, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,490	$2.44	4d	10	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $86 · $1,032/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 34-char remark

   Show marketing remark (34 chars)

   As Is Short Sale. No Entry Access.

2. 2026-05-04
   status Active 34-char remark

   Show marketing remark (34 chars)

   As Is Short Sale. No Entry Access.

3. 2025-05-30
   status Pending 34-char remark

   Show marketing remark (34 chars)

   As Is Short Sale. No Entry Access.

4. 2025-05-30
   listed $200,000 Active 34-char remark

   Show marketing remark (34 chars)

   As Is Short Sale. No Entry Access.

5. 2025-05-30
   historical 34-char remark

   Show marketing remark (34 chars)

   As Is Short Sale. No Entry Access.

6. 2023-05-31
   status Pending
7. 2023-05-31
   historical
8. 2023-05-30
   price $259,900
9. 2023-05-30
   listed $269,900 Active
10. 2022-12-31
    historical
11. 2022-12-29
    listed $339,000 Active
12. 2017-12-02
    soldstatus $235,000 Closed
13. 2017-12-02
    soldstatus $235,000 Sold
14. 2017-09-21
    status Contract
15. 2017-09-15
    historical Expired
16. 2017-08-15
    price $227,525
17. 2017-08-11
    status Active
18. 2017-08-08
    historical Expired
19. 2017-07-13
    price $239,500
20. 2017-06-12
    price $251,900
21. 2017-05-09
    listed $264,900 Active
22. 2016-11-30
    historical
23. 2016-11-30
    historical Withdrawn
24. 2016-06-30
    price
25. 2016-06-21
    listed Active
26. 2016-06-21
    listed $255,000
27. 1995-10-04
    soldstatus $124,500
28. 1990-04-17
    soldstatus $123,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,645 · $304/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,645 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,645
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,574
• − Management: −$2,574
• − HOA: −$1,032
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $4,327
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,038
• After-tax cash flow: $6,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anne Arundel County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $87,880
• Composite: 28.52/100
• National rank: #6733
• State rank: #10 of 24 in MD

Livability — Odenton

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #7349

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Odenton, MD
• County: Anne Arundel County · 535,653 people
• City population: 36,705
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 36,705
• Household income: $125,639
• Rent vs Own: 38.9% rent · 61.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1190.0

Population outlook (Anne Arundel County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 617,384 people
• By 2030: 642,094 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 686,621 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 723,031 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 809,346 · +31.1%
• By 2100: 837,658 · +35.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 29% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anne Arundel

• 2024 margin: D (+13.9) · D 55.7% · R 41.7% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.7pp toward D · 2008: -1.8pp · 2024: 13.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.9 2020: D+14.5 2016: D+0.7 2012: R+0.9 2008: R+1.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.76%
• Current HPI: 273.3267
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+62.1% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-30 Listed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-31 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-30 Price Changed $259,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-30 Listed $269,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-12-29 Listed $339,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-12-02 Sold (MLS) $235,000 MRIS
• 2017-12-02 Sold (MLS) $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-09-21 Pending — MRIS
• 2017-09-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-08-15 Price Changed $227,525 MRIS
• 2017-08-11 Relisted — MRIS
• 2017-08-08 Delisted — MRIS
• 2017-07-13 Price Changed $239,500 MRIS
• 2017-06-12 Price Changed $251,900 MRIS
• 2017-05-09 Listed $264,900 MRIS
• 2016-11-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 2016-11-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-06-30 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2016-06-21 Listed — MRIS
• 2016-06-21 Listed $255,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1995-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $124,500 Public Records
• 1990-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $123,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,645 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.