19250 N Lower Sacramento Rd #22 · Woodbridge, CA 95258

$194,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 90 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 3,419 sqft lot $244/sqft · 83% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your serene, countryside retreat by the water! Built in 2024 and lovingly maintained, this beautifully kept 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home offers modern comfort in a peaceful 55+ community. Enjoy picturesque views of Lodi Lake, which feeds into the scenic Mokelumne River bringing nature and sunsets right to your doorstep. Whether you're sipping your morning coffee or unwinding in the evening, the tranquil water views create the perfect backdrop for everyday living. Inside, you'll find a thoughtfully designed layout with bright, open living spaces, contemporary finishes, and the ease of singlelevel living. Tucked in a quiet location within the community, this private uni

Key facts

• Singlelevel living
• Quiet location
• Private unit

Tags

• PICTURESQUE VIEWS
• TRANQUIL WATER VIEWS
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED LAYOUT
• SINGLELEVEL LIVING
• QUIET LOCATION
• PRIVATE UNIT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $353 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#810 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.76%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $106,421
• List price: $194,900
• Delta: 83.14%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19250 N Lower Sacramento Rd #8	0.08mi	2/1.0	795 (-1%)	12mo	$130,000	$164	82
19250 N Lower Sacramneto Rd #4	0.08mi	2/2.0	720 (-10%)	3mo	$84,765	$118	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-9,073
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $21,173
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95258

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1279 Woodhaven Ln Unit 201 Lodi, CA	1.0	1.0	850	$2,750	$3.24	43d	1	0.75mi
1800 Lake St Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	966	$1,795	$1.86	14d	1	1.01mi
820 N Lower Sacramento Rd Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$1,695	$1.78	1d	1	1.03mi
308 Louie Ave Lodi, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,000	$2.00	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $194,900 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $194,900 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,900 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $194,900 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $194,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 72 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,066
• − Management: −$2,066
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $1,203
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$289
• After-tax cash flow: $3,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2024 manufactured home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a peaceful setting. It's move-in ready with minor maintenance items to address.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lodi Unified
• NCES district ID: 0622230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $57,165
• Composite: 26.84/100
• National rank: #7108
• State rank: #325 of 517 in CA

Livability — Woodbridge

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #810
• US rank: #22875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,868
• Population (ZIP): 3,868

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 20% Native American 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Italian 3% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.06%
• Current HPI: 316.1185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B