13073 Pine Cliff Cir · Johnson Siding, SD 57702

$240,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1973 0.36 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Upgraded appliances
• Fenced yard space

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• UPGRADED APPLIANCES
• GOOD CABINET SPACE
• FENCED YARD SPACE
• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached parking
• Home design: Manufactured home on land; Residential property; Located in Pine Cliff Subdivision
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Workshop; Pets allowed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Wood stove; Electric heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Deck
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (9.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#335 in SD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rapid City Area School District 51-4 (urban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #50 of 59 in SD (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 237 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,181 units permitted in Pennington County in 2024 (715 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pennington County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,171 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.19%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-44,792
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-41,003
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57702

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$172 /mo · $2,062/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,937

Max offer price $218,297

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $240,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $240,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-21
    price $240,000
18. 2026-04-28
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,062 · $172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,144 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,082/yr (+$90/mo · 52.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$2,062
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,728
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,375
• After-tax cash flow: $-100/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rapid City Area School District 51-4
• NCES district ID: 4659820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,145
• Composite: 34.47/100
• National rank: #5189
• State rank: #50 of 59 in SD

Livability — Johnson Siding

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #335
• US rank: #25913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnson Siding, SD
• County: Pennington County · 99,403 people
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• Population (ZIP): 35,595
• Household income: $91,457
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 499.0

Population outlook (Pennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,504 people
• By 2030: 133,370 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 147,505 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 160,507 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 197,585 · +57.4%
• By 2100: 241,736 · +92.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pennington

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.4) · D 35.4% · R 61.9% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -26.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+33.0 2012: R+29.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.08%
• Current HPI: 230.5854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.09%
• Metro: Rapid City, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $240,000 MRAOR
• 2026-04-28 Listed $250,000 MRAOR

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,062 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.