148 Chapel St · Lockport, NY 14094

$67,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1860 3,485 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Lockport Rehab-Endless Potential! Interior mostly gutted, with newer roof, several new windows. Flexible layout with first floor in-law suite or studio potential. A true blank canvas ready for building your perfect dream home or investment property. Make it your own! Perfect for investors or owner-occupants. Conveniently located just minutes away from downtown Lockport and the Erie Canal. All utilities are shut off, so please bring a flashlight. Buyer to pay search, survey, and transfer tax.

Key facts

• Newer roof
• Erie canal
• Several new windows

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• SEVERAL NEW WINDOWS
• FIRST FLOOR IN-LAW SUITE
• STUDIO POTENTIAL
• ERIE CANAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story home; Existing structure; Partial basement
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (first level)
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 on second level; Bedroom 2 on second level; Bedroom 3 on second level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: In-law floorplan; See remarks / other
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $67k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.1% vs local median 4.5% in Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in NY, #3,669 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, employment D-.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1860 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $62,980 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1860 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.92%
• DSCR: 3.04
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $232,890
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
155 Chestnut St	0.26mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,212 (-0%)	2mo	$260,400	$118	79
166 Olcott St	0.33mi	3/2.0	2,046 (-8%)	6mo	$139,900	$68	67
308 East Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,108 (-5%)	10mo	$199,900	$95	62
492 Walnut St	0.44mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,988 (-10%)	8mo	$270,000	$136	48
23 Rochester St	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,222 (+0%)	20mo	$285,000	$128	47
187 Lock St	0.49mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,956 (-12%)	8mo	$200,000	$102	44
282 N Transit St	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,160 (-3%)	23mo	$47,000	$22	40
589 Market St	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,981 (-11%)	15mo	$207,500	$105	37
579 East Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	2,044 (-8%)	21mo	$208,000	$102	36
191 Washington St	0.72mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,890 (-15%)	17mo	$212,500	$112	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 43.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $35,900
• Equity at exit: $9,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 50.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.03×
• Total profit: $94,443
• Equity at exit: $5,793

Cash invested: $18,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $586

Max offer price $67,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,750
• Closing costs: $2,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $67,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $67,000 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $67,000 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $67,000 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $67,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $67,000 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $67,000 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $67,000 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $67,000 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $67,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $67,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $67,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $67,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $67,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $67,000 Active
17. 2026-04-10
    historical
18. 2026-02-10
    price $75,000
19. 2026-02-07
    price $69,999
20. 2026-01-14
    listed $75,000 Active
21. 2025-08-31
    status Pending
22. 2025-08-31
    historical
23. 2025-07-11
    status Active
24. 2025-07-11
    price $69,900
25. 2025-07-02
    status Pending
26. 2025-06-23
    price $64,900
27. 2025-06-10
    listed $79,900 Active
28. 2024-05-18
    historical
29. 2024-05-16
    historical
30. 2024-05-16
    historical
31. 2024-05-12
    listed $79,900 Active
32. 2003-02-04
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,753
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$335
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − Depreciation: −$1,949
• Taxable income: $8,025
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,926
• After-tax cash flow: $6,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lockport

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3669

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• City population: 50,153
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+11.7% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $67,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $75,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $69,999 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $75,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-08-31 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-07-11 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $69,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $64,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2024-05-18 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-05-16 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-05-16 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-05-12 Listed $79,900 WNYREIS
• 2003-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,665 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.