3127 Fairview St · Buena Vista, MI 48601

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 760 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1935 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

SINGLE FAMILY HOME AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO PACKAGE

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1935

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $489 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 18.0% vs local median 11.7% in Buena Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#615 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District (suburban): math 7% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #513 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.91%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $22,800
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2516 Bewick St	0.66mi	2/1.0	756 (-0%)	3mo	$38,000	$50	66
2400 Bewick St	0.54mi	2/1.0	816 (+7%)	3mo	$5,000	$6	60
2927 Fairview St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	834 (+10%)	20mo	$25,000	$30	56
4034 Randolph St	0.59mi	2/1.0	719 (-5%)	19mo	$10,800	$15	47
4137 Randolph St	0.70mi	2/1.0	708 (-7%)	15mo	$33,000	$47	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $23,026
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.29×
• Total profit: $60,104
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48601

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,004 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $254/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $489

Break-even live

Break-even rent $385

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 46%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3328 Webber St Saginaw, MI	3.0	1.0	878	$1,250	$1.42	43d	1	0.65mi
2554 Apollo Dr Unit AP2554 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	43d	1	0.73mi
2564 Apollo Dr Unit AP2564 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$883	$0.92	43d	1	0.74mi
2800 Gemini St Unit GE2800 Saginaw, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$920	$0.96	43d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-15
   historical

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO PACKAGE

3. 2026-03-15
   historical

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO PACKAGE

4. 2026-03-15
   historical 56-char remark

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO PACKAGE

5. 2026-03-14
   listed $50,000

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO PACKAGE

6. 2026-03-14
   listed $50,000 56-char remark

   Show marketing remark (56 chars)

   SINGLE FAMILY HOME AS PART OF A LARGER PORTFOLIO PACKAGE

7. 2012-10-19
   soldstatus $115,000
8. 2003-02-13
   historical 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Three bedroom home located in Buena Vista with a double lot, enclosed porch and a 1.5 car garage. A Handy Person Special w/ Immediate Occupancy!

9. 2003-02-07
   soldstatus $10,000 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   Three bedroom home located in Buena Vista with a double lot, enclosed porch and a 1.5 car garage. A Handy Person Special w/ Immediate Occupancy!

10. 2003-02-07
    soldstatus $10,000

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Three bedroom home located in Buena Vista with a double lot, enclosed porch and a 1.5 car garage. A Handy Person Special w/ Immediate Occupancy!

11. 2002-10-28
    listed $11,900 144-char remark

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Three bedroom home located in Buena Vista with a double lot, enclosed porch and a 1.5 car garage. A Handy Person Special w/ Immediate Occupancy!

12. 2002-10-28
    listed $11,900

    Show marketing remark (144 chars)

    Three bedroom home located in Buena Vista with a double lot, enclosed porch and a 1.5 car garage. A Handy Person Special w/ Immediate Occupancy!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $254 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $512 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$258/yr (+$22/mo · 101.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,047
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$254
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$964
• − Management: −$964
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,286
• After-tax cash flow: $4,580/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport-Spaulding Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2606780
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 17% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,403
• Composite: 10.13/100
• National rank: #9800
• State rank: #513 of 540 in MI

Livability — Buena Vista

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #615
• US rank: #20603

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buena Vista, MI
• City population: 32,069
• Population (ZIP): 32,069

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.46%
• Current HPI: 197.3359
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+320.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-03-14 Listed $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $50,000 REALCOMP
• 2012-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2003-02-13 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-02-07 Sold (MLS) $10,000 REALCOMP
• 2003-02-07 Sold (MLS) $10,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-10-28 Listed $11,900 REALCOMP
• 2002-10-28 Listed $11,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $254 · -77.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.