23 Baxter Rd · Willington, CT 06279

$119,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 450 sqft · Manufactured public records · 93 Days on market

Built 1950 0.60 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice lot, lightly wooded. Close proximity to Route I-84 and UCONN. The property has an uninhabitable existing trailer, size 10' x 45'. There is a 1-car garage in good condition. Currently the lot is nonconforming, but can be built following current setbacks. See letter from town.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New flooring
• New hot water heater

Tags

• OVERSIZED 1 CAR GARAGE
• LARGE FLAT BACKYARD
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1-car)
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Above-ground fuel tank
• Home design: Single family property; Prefab construction; Flat roof; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Prefab construction; No foundation listed
• Exterior features: Lightly wooded lot; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; Oil-fired heat; Electric hot water
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Crawl space basement (unfinished)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer (laundry on main level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $194 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Willington School District (rural): math 36% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #90 of 153 in CT (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 1,867 units permitted in Capitol Planning Region in 2024 (1,399 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $120k implies a 243% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,109 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.94%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,071
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $9,718
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06279

• Home prices YoY: -4.5%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,172/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $194

Break-even live

Break-even rent $983

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $119,900 Under Contract 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Under Contract - Continue to Show 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Under Contract - Continue to Show 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Under Contract - Continue to Show 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Under Contract - Continue to Show 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Under Contract - Continue to Show 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Under Contract - Continue to Show 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Under Contract - Continue to Show 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Under Contract - Continue to Show 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,900 Under Contract - Continue to Show 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $119,900 Under Contract - Continue to Show 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    remarks 382-char remark
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 74 DOM
19. 2026-05-03
    price $119,900
20. 2026-03-16
    listed $129,900 Active
21. 2023-11-17
    soldstatus $35,000 Closed 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Nice lot, lightly wooded. Close proximity to Route I-84 and UCONN. The property has an uninhabitable existing trailer, size 10' x 45'. There is a 1-car garage in good condition. Currently the lot is nonconforming, but can be built following current setbacks. See letter from town.

22. 2023-11-02
    status Under Contract 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Nice lot, lightly wooded. Close proximity to Route I-84 and UCONN. The property has an uninhabitable existing trailer, size 10' x 45'. There is a 1-car garage in good condition. Currently the lot is nonconforming, but can be built following current setbacks. See letter from town.

23. 2023-09-18
    listed $44,900 Active 280-char remark

    Show marketing remark (280 chars)

    Nice lot, lightly wooded. Close proximity to Route I-84 and UCONN. The property has an uninhabitable existing trailer, size 10' x 45'. There is a 1-car garage in good condition. Currently the lot is nonconforming, but can be built following current setbacks. See letter from town.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,172 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,869 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$697/yr (+$58/mo · 59.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,172
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $409
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$98
• After-tax cash flow: $2,233/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willington School District
• NCES district ID: 0905100
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $68,267
• Composite: 39.91/100
• National rank: #3851
• State rank: #90 of 153 in CT

Livability — Willington

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,563

Population outlook (Capitol County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 1,063,519

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Asian 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 8% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 2% Spanish 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Capitol

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.9) · D 60.1% · R 38.2% · Other 1.7%
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 270.5381
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+167.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $119,900 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $129,900 Smart MLS
• 2023-11-17 Sold (MLS) $35,000 Smart MLS
• 2023-11-02 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2023-09-18 Listed $44,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,172 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.