207 N Hi Circle N St N Unit 105 A&B · Horseshoe Bay, TX 78657

$229,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · Condo · 490 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition $144/sqft · 48% below area Est $442k · 48% under $450/mo HOA · 21% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fabulous HSB location close to the hotel, marina and restaurants! Originally built as a split level, this condo is now 2 separate units each with a large bedroom, full kitchen, living room, bath, and private patio. Both units have a full array of appliances including refrigerators, stoves, dishwashers, microwaves and washer/ dryers. Upper unit has vaulted ceiling, cozy fireplace and loft space. One car garage can be assigned to either unit and additional assigned parking space is available. Lower unit also has a small exterior courtyard. New electrical panels and paint in both units and lower unit has new lighting, floors, kitchen counters, the bathroom vanity and plumbing fixtures. Lower unit may include furnishings if desired. .

Key facts

• New lighting
• New floors
• Private patio

Tags

• PRIVATE PATIO
• FULL ARRAY OF APPLIANCES
• SMALL EXTERIOR COURTYARD
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANELS
• NEW LIGHTING
• NEW FLOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (23.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 1.2% in Horseshoe Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#625 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Llano ISD (town): math 40% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #359 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Packsaddle El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 596 students, 83% FRL); Llano J H (math 42% / reading 45%, grade D, #530 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 423 students, 65% FRL); Llano H S (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 552 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1406 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 61% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 121 units permitted in Llano County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Llano County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 490 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,110 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 490 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.84%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $441,622
• List price: $229,000
• Delta: -48.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
207 Hi Cir N #112	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,588 (0%)	3mo	$219,900	$138	98
118 Longhorn	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,775 (+12%)	1mo	$373,000	$210	56
5321 Fm 2147 #3	0.98mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,572 (-1%)	4mo	$264,900	$169	53
1103 Ute Rd	0.95mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,662 (+5%)	2mo	$168,740	$102	51
1000 The Cape Rd #33	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-15%)	1mo	$639,000	$475	50
212 Knights Row Row	1.45mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,727 (+9%)	0mo	$475,000	$275	43
110 Big Spur S #2	0.76mi	2/2.0	1,224 (-23%)	0mo	$235,000	$192	40
1214 Hi Stirrup #100	0.81mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-21%)	0mo	$174,500	$140	40
200 Full Moon #3	0.57mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,977 (+24%)	0mo	$385,000	$195	39
104 S Big Spur #7	0.81mi	2/2.0	1,224 (-23%)	1mo	$235,000	$192	39
521 Lucy Ln	0.61mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,954 (+23%)	2mo	$999,000	$511	36
408 Horseshoe Bay North	0.63mi	3/3.5 (+1)	1,890 (+19%)	2mo	$799,000	$423	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-19,300
• Equity at exit: $77,526

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,278
• Equity at exit: $102,524

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 3 under contract
• Median asking: $289,000 ($189/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +47.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78657

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1406
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$286 /mo · $3,435/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$450
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,573

Max offer price $176,110

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-207	-5% $-286	+0% $-366	+5% $-445	+10% $-524
Rent	-10% $-532	-5% $-449	+0% $-366	+5% $-282	+10% $-199
Rate	-1.0pp $-250	-0.5pp $-307	base $-366	+0.5pp $-425	+1.0pp $-485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
412 Short Circuit #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1333	$1,550	$1.16	16d	1	0.02mi
516 Free Rein Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1708	$2,200	$1.29	16d	1	0.14mi
104 Cove E #107 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,500	$2.00	72d	1	0.28mi
100 Bay Point Dr #7 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$2,150	$1.73	59d	1	0.32mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1243	$1,800	$1.45	42d	1	0.34mi
100 Bay Point Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0	1.0	1070	$1,650	$1.54	93d	1	0.34mi
101 W Bank #14 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$3,500	$2.60	16d	1	0.39mi
101 W Bank Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$2,500	$1.56	16d	1	0.39mi
106 Cross Bow Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1764	$2,900	$1.64	93d	1	0.43mi
1101 The Cpe Unit HOA Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1485	$4,000	$2.69	16d	1	0.45mi
200 Full Moon Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,800	$1.54	13d	1	0.54mi
403 Island Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1875	$4,300	$2.29	93d	1	0.55mi
400 Green Leaf Horseshoe Bay, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,224	$1.27	72d	2	0.60mi
400 Green Leaf Unit 319-202 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1141	$1,349	$1.18	72d	1	0.60mi
307 Poker Chip Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1160	$1,995	$1.72	72d	1	0.65mi
400 Hi There #101 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	1.5	1160	$1,900	$1.64	16d	1	0.66mi
307 Crestview Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1240	$1,800	$1.45	13d	1	0.69mi
402 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	2038	$2,200	$1.08	93d	1	0.70mi
105 Star #6 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.5	1156	$1,200	$1.04	16d	1	0.72mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,400	$1.06	16d	1	0.72mi
300 Out Yonder #170 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,300	$0.98	16d	1	0.72mi
300 Out Yonder #172 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1321	$1,275	$0.97	93d	1	0.72mi
306 Out Yonder #154 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1900	$1,550	$0.82	72d	1	0.72mi
1206 Hi Stirrup Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,200	$0.96	93d	1	0.80mi
1210 Hi Stirrup #209 Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,500	$1.20	93d	1	0.81mi
106 Dawn #3 Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,600	$1.47	72d	1	0.88mi
202 Lighthouse Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1993	$2,500	$1.25	16d	1	1.05mi
1314 Clayton Nolen Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,850	$1.51	72d	1	1.10mi
1406 Prospect Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1998	$2,700	$1.35	46d	1	1.12mi
410 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	2.0	2.0	1964	$2,450	$1.25	93d	1	1.22mi
203 Hi Cir W Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,595	$1.42	72d	1	1.29mi
102 Prairie Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	2154	$2,700	$1.25	93d	1	1.38mi
3201 Oak Ridge Dr Horseshoe Bay, TX	3.0	3.0	1655	$3,600	$2.18	13d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail $450/mo · $5,400/yr condo

• Likely covers: electricparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 490 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $229,000 Active 489 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $229,000 Active 488 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $229,000 Active 487 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $229,000 Active 486 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 485 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 482 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $229,000 Active 481 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $229,000 Active 480 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $229,000 Active 478 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $229,000 Active 476 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $229,000 Active 475 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $229,000 Active 474 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $229,000 Active 473 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $229,000 Active 472 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $229,000 Active 469 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $229,000 Active 467 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $229,000 Active 466 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $229,000 Active 465 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    price $229,000 Active 464 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $245,900 Active 464 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $245,900 Active 463 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $245,900 Active 462 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $245,900 Active 461 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $245,900 Active 460 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $245,900 Active 458 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $245,900 Active 457 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $245,900 Active 456 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $245,900 Active 455 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $245,900 Active 454 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $245,900 Active 453 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $245,900 Active 452 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $245,900 Active 451 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $245,900 Active 450 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $245,900 Active 449 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $245,900 Active 448 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $245,900 Active 447 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $245,900 Active 445 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $245,900 Active 443 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $245,900 Active 442 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $245,900 Active 439 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $245,900 Active 438 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $245,900 Active 437 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $245,900 Active 436 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $245,900 Active 434 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $245,900 Active 433 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $245,900 Active 431 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $245,900 Active 430 DOM
49. 2026-06-09
    days on market $245,900 Active 429 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,900 Active 428 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$3,435
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − HOA: −$5,400
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$8,199
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,968
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,418/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,940–$23,820 screening

This split-level condo is in good condition with recent updates, making it a great investment for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both furniture — modernizes the living spaces and makes them more inviting ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Packsaddle El F TX #2,791/4,322 Nat'l #28,475/41,679 Middle Llano J H D TX #530/1,662 Nat'l #5,067/14,009 High Llano H S D- TX #591/1,632 Nat'l #6,330/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Llano ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827810
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,746
• Composite: 35.42/100
• National rank: #4940
• State rank: #359 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Horseshoe Bay

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #625
• US rank: #11913

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Horseshoe Bay, TX
• County: Llano County · 20,847 people
• City population: 7,591
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,591
• Household income: $91,452
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Llano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,847 people
• By 2030: 21,350 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 22,281 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 23,173 · +11.2%
• By 2075: 25,526 · +22.4%
• By 2100: 25,866 · +24.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Llano

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -52.2pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+60.1 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+60.4 2008: R+52.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.95%
• Current HPI: 229.9918
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $245,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $260,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $275,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-04-05 Listed $299,000 Unlock MLS