3509 Mcknight Mill Rd · Greensboro, NC 27405

$182,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1948 0.52 ac lot Est $250k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming one-level, 3-bedroom home offering a spacious layout and generously sized rooms throughout. Designed for comfortable living, the floor plan provides a natural flow that’s perfect for both everyday life and entertaining. The kitchen serves as the heart of the home, ample cabinetry, and a spacious layout This home is full of potential, giving you the opportunity to add your personal touch with just a little updating. Hardwood flooring in select areas adds warmth and character, while the roomy interior creates a bright and inviting atmosphere. Outside, you’ll find even more to love with a convenient storage building, detached carport, and plenty of parking

Key facts

• 0.52 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1948

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (2 parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Natural gas for heating; Water heater: unknown
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; One story; Built in 1948; Living room fireplace
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Crawl space foundation; Shingle roof not specified
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Public-maintained road access; Septic tank

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Pantry in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on the main level
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on main level; Pull-down attic stairs; Ceiling fans; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer connection on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $182k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $294 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.8% in Greensboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#12 in NC, #1,335 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D, crime F.
• Guilford County Schools (urban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #99 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,843 units permitted in Guilford County in 2024 (2,397 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($47k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guilford County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($177k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $182k implies a 691% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,540 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.93%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $250,044
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3720 Hillrise Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,202 (-3%)	6mo	$234,900	$195	73
3801 Sanderston Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,265 (+2%)	8mo	$269,000	$213	72
3902 Arcola Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,265 (+2%)	9mo	$269,300	$213	71
3911 Arcola Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,265 (+2%)	12mo	$269,000	$213	70
3908 Arcola Way	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,199 (-4%)	16mo	$257,000	$214	62
109 Lemon Ln	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,418 (+14%)	1mo	$252,000	$178	60
2520 Mcknight Mill Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,126 (-10%)	7mo	$181,000	$161	59
3805 Sanderston Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,199 (-4%)	22mo	$257,900	$215	58
3700 Miller Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,334 (+7%)	15mo	$180,000	$135	55
2902 Desmond Woods Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,407 (+13%)	2mo	$265,000	$188	55
213 Pleasant Willow Pl	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,407 (+13%)	21mo	$265,000	$188	49
3411 Cecilside Ln	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-8%)	8mo	$230,000	$201	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-9,324
• Equity at exit: $27,137

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $21,951
• Equity at exit: $15,736

Cash invested: $50,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27405

• Home prices YoY: -20.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 381
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$954
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $856/yr
• Insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $294

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,394

Max offer price $182,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,500
• Closing costs: $5,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
109 Lemon Ln Greensboro, NC	3.0	3.0	1418	$2,000	$1.41	23d	1	0.21mi
3902 Arcola Way Greensboro, NC	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,795	$1.42	23d	1	0.30mi
4100 US Highway 29 N Greensboro, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	928	$1,529	$1.65	23d	1	0.44mi
3409 N O.Henry Blvd Greensboro, NC	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	925	$1,475	$1.59	14d	6	1.26mi
1811 Cody Ave Greensboro, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	18d	1	1.47mi
1811 Cody Ave Greensboro, NC	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $182,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $182,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $182,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $182,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $182,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $182,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $182,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $182,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $182,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $182,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $182,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $182,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $182,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $182,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-21
    price $182,000
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $195,000 Active
17. 1977-06-01
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $856 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,492 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$636/yr (+$53/mo · 74.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,195
• − Property taxes: −$856
• − Insurance: −$910
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$5,295
• Taxable income: $557
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$134
• After-tax cash flow: $3,399/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guilford County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701920
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,315
• Composite: 35.78/100
• National rank: #4842
• State rank: #99 of 178 in NC

Livability — Greensboro

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #1335

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Guilford County · 487,190 people
• City population: 329,421
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• Population (ZIP): 54,303
• Household income: $47,431
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2517.0

Population outlook (Guilford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 584,596 people
• By 2030: 616,851 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 678,451 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 734,788 · +25.7%
• By 2075: 862,985 · +47.6%
• By 2100: 948,704 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 20% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Ukrainian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guilford

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.2% · R 38.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 18.4pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+20.0 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.02%
• Current HPI: 243.1261
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: Greensboro-High Point, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+691.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $182,000 Triad MLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $195,000 Triad MLS
• 1977-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $856 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.