653 Main Rd · Aquebogue, NY 11931

$895,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,581 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 309 Days on market

Built 1930 1.20 ac lot $566/sqft · 12% above area Est $798k · 12% over ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare Rural Corridor Zoning in highly trafficked, prime location on Main Road, in the heart of Aquebogue, the gateway to the North Fork. This zoning allows the existing home on level 1.2 acre to be converted to a wide variety of uses including professional offices, or the existing 1500 sf+ home may be enlarged for use as attorney, dentist, doctor, architect, or other professional office. If your desired use is as a rental, zoning allows creating a 2 family unit. RC Zoning also allows a bakery, coffee shop, cafe, bistro, antique store, tasting room, farmstand, place of worship, school and more, all in a high visibiity location near popular North Fork destinations.

Key facts

• 2 family unit
• Level 1.2 acre
• Existing home

Tags

• LEVEL 1.2 ACRE
• EXISTING HOME
• 1500 SF HOME
• 2 FAMILY UNIT
• HIGH VISIBILITY LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $895k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $10k ($120k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $895k).
• Recommended offer: $788k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#887 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $96k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $90k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $251k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$154k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 309 days — a 12% lower offer ($788k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $787,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 309 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.79%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $797,545
• List price: $895,000
• Delta: 12.22%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
224 Church Ln	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,650 (+4%)	11mo	$615,000	$373	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.48×
• Total profit: $1,123,155
• Equity at exit: $806,287

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.3%
• Equity multiple: 12.20×
• Total profit: $2,807,799
• Equity at exit: $1,738,788

Cash invested: $250,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11931

• Home prices YoY: 16.2%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,693
• Tax from tax record: −$754 /mo · $9,042/yr
• Insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $9,980

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,367

Max offer price $895,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $10,487	-5% $10,233	+0% $9,980	+5% $9,727	+10% $9,473
Rent	-10% $8,400	-5% $9,190	+0% $9,980	+5% $10,770	+10% $11,560
Rate	-1.0pp $10,431	-0.5pp $10,208	base $9,980	+0.5pp $9,748	+1.0pp $9,512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $223,750
• Closing costs: $26,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
97 Grant DR Aquebogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1900	$20,000	$10.53	44d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $895,000 Active 309 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $895,000 Active 308 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $895,000 Active 307 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $895,000 Active 306 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $895,000 Active 304 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $895,000 Active 300 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $895,000 Active 299 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $895,000 Active 298 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $895,000 Active 295 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $895,000 Active 294 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $895,000 Active 293 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $895,000 Active 292 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $895,000 Active 291 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    price $895,000 670-char remark

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    Rare Rural Corridor Zoning in highly trafficked, prime location on Main Road, in the heart of Aquebogue, the gateway to the North Fork. This zoning allows the existing home on level 1.2 acre to be converted to a wide variety of uses including professional offices, or the existing 1500 sf+ home may be enlarged for use as attorney, dentist, doctor, architect, or other professional office. If your desired use is as a rental, zoning allows creating a 2 family unit. RC Zoning also allows a bakery, coffee shop, cafe, bistro, antique store, tasting room, farmstand, place of worship, school and more, all in a high visibiity location near popular North Fork destinations.

15. 2026-01-13
    price $925,000 670-char remark

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    Rare Rural Corridor Zoning in highly trafficked, prime location on Main Road, in the heart of Aquebogue, the gateway to the North Fork. This zoning allows the existing home on level 1.2 acre to be converted to a wide variety of uses including professional offices, or the existing 1500 sf+ home may be enlarged for use as attorney, dentist, doctor, architect, or other professional office. If your desired use is as a rental, zoning allows creating a 2 family unit. RC Zoning also allows a bakery, coffee shop, cafe, bistro, antique store, tasting room, farmstand, place of worship, school and more, all in a high visibiity location near popular North Fork destinations.

16. 2025-08-13
    listed $975,000 Active 670-char remark

    Show marketing remark (670 chars)

    Rare Rural Corridor Zoning in highly trafficked, prime location on Main Road, in the heart of Aquebogue, the gateway to the North Fork. This zoning allows the existing home on level 1.2 acre to be converted to a wide variety of uses including professional offices, or the existing 1500 sf+ home may be enlarged for use as attorney, dentist, doctor, architect, or other professional office. If your desired use is as a rental, zoning allows creating a 2 family unit. RC Zoning also allows a bakery, coffee shop, cafe, bistro, antique store, tasting room, farmstand, place of worship, school and more, all in a high visibiity location near popular North Fork destinations.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,042 · $754/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,084 · $1,007/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,042/yr (+$253/mo · 33.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$50,134
• − Property taxes: −$9,042
• − Insurance: −$4,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$26,036
• Taxable income: $111,912
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$26,859
• After-tax cash flow: $92,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Aquebogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #887
• US rank: #17213

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Aquebogue, NY
• City population: 24
• Population (ZIP): 24

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.85%
• Current HPI: 199.64
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-8.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $895,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Price Changed $925,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-13 Listed $975,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,042 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.