421 S 27th St · Louisville, KY 40212

$69,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 866 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1900 1,660 sqft lot Est $57k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 2-bedroom home sits on a desirable corner lot in the highly desired Russell neighborhood. Step inside to the open floor plan with an updated eat-in kitchen. The primary bedroom is spacious and features double closets for ample storage. Fully fenced yard. This can being sold with 1 other property (located at 1528 Wilson) or can be sold individually.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Double closets
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DOUBLE CLOSETS
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• FULLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; One HVAC unit
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story; Built in 1900
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Chain-link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms, both on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; No basement; First-floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $307 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($934 rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 140 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 0.5% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 27y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $69k implies a 130% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,965 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.08%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $57,156
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2831 W Madison St	0.20mi	2/1.0	937 (+8%)	1mo	$108,000	$115	76
2214 Cedar St	0.40mi	2/1.0	886 (+2%)	4mo	$46,000	$52	74
2230 Congress St	0.41mi	1/1.0 (-1)	856 (-1%)	2mo	$38,500	$45	72
111 S 28th St	0.34mi	2/1.0	816 (-6%)	9mo	$106,900	$131	67
216 N 25th St	0.52mi	2/1.0	840 (-3%)	6mo	$85,000	$101	66
503 S 32nd St	0.51mi	2/1.0	832 (-4%)	8mo	$35,000	$42	63
331 N 23rd St	0.72mi	2/1.0	855 (-1%)	4mo	$105,000	$123	61
315 N 26th St	0.57mi	1/1.0 (-1)	878 (+1%)	7mo	$29,000	$33	60
3226 W Jefferson St	0.62mi	2/1.0	920 (+6%)	6mo	$48,000	$52	56
3425 Vermont Ave	0.72mi	2/1.0	912 (+5%)	4mo	$36,500	$40	55
2822 Rowan St	0.48mi	2/1.0	944 (+9%)	10mo	$120,000	$127	55
2722 Slevin St	0.70mi	2/1.0	984 (+14%)	5mo	$65,000	$66	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $54,841
• Equity at exit: $62,161

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.35×
• Total profit: $141,909
• Equity at exit: $134,052

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40212

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $486/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $307

Break-even live

Break-even rent $546

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2623 Cedar St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	23d	1	0.06mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	928	$950	$1.02	23d	1	0.11mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	17d	1	0.11mi
2631 W Madison St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	928	$850	$0.92	23d	1	0.11mi
2614 W Jefferson St Unit 2614-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	740	$795	$1.07	23d	1	0.13mi
2614 W Jefferson St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$695	$1.10	20d	1	0.13mi
2718 W Jefferson St Unit 2718-3 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$699	$1.10	23d	1	0.14mi
2718 W Jefferson St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	633	$699	$1.10	21d	1	0.14mi
2300 W Madison St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$850	$0.94	23d	1	0.35mi
2221 W Madison St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	21d	1	0.39mi
2221 W Madison St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	23d	1	0.39mi
2733 Chase Ct Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$900	$1.00	16d	1	0.40mi
2411 Elliott Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	892	$895	$1.00	23d	1	0.41mi
3124 Vermont Ave Unit 3124-1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$695	$1.07	23d	1	0.48mi
3124 Vermont Ave Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$699	$1.08	23d	1	0.48mi
212 N 25th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1104	$895	$0.81	23d	1	0.48mi
214 N 24th St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1012	$915	$0.90	23d	1	0.52mi
220 Doctor W. J. Hodge St Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	570	$700	$1.23	17d	1	0.54mi
2310 W Broadway Unit 1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	3d	1	0.54mi
2927 Rowan St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,205	$1.20	11d	1	0.56mi
515 S 20th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	16d	1	0.59mi
2132 Rowan St Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	875	$928	$1.06	3d	4	0.60mi
322 N 24th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	16d	1	0.63mi
666 Eastlawn Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	936	$895	$0.96	16d	1	0.67mi
2433 Slevin St Unit 2433-2 Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	800	$875	$1.09	3d	1	0.68mi
701 Hazel St Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	832	$800	$0.96	10d	1	0.68mi
331 N 23rd St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	855	$1,150	$1.35	17d	1	0.70mi
2717 Slevin St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	620	$725	$1.17	16d	1	0.72mi
3421 River Park Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	994	$1,250	$1.26	23d	1	0.74mi
2925 Slevin St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	896	$775	$0.86	3d	1	0.77mi
848 S 23rd St Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,450	$1.38	23d	1	0.78mi
2724 Garland Ave Unit 202 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	950	$745	$0.78	3d	1	0.80mi
3416 W Main St Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	667	$825	$1.24	23d	1	0.82mi
353 N 27th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	23d	1	0.82mi
691 Madelon Ct Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	650	$675	$1.04	11d	1	0.84mi
2513 Date St Unit 2 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$745	$1.06	3d	1	0.85mi
112 N 18th St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	944	$1,050	$1.11	23d	1	0.87mi
451 N 25th St Unit Mk Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	988	$875	$0.89	3d	1	0.88mi
832 Hazel St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	720	$1,095	$1.52	3d	1	0.88mi
200 N 18th St Unit 200-4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	740	$775	$1.05	20d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on marketlisting id $69,000 Active 1 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-07
    price $75,000
15. 2026-03-24
    listed $80,000 Active
16. 2026-03-05
    listed $850
17. 2025-10-31
    historical
18. 2025-09-04
    listed $95,000 Active
19. 2025-08-22
    price $105,000
20. 2022-08-09
    price $875
21. 2018-06-06
    soldstatus $30,000 Closed
22. 2018-05-19
    status Pending
23. 2018-05-07
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2018-04-18
    status Active
25. 2018-03-07
    status Pending
26. 2018-02-09
    price $33,500
27. 2018-02-09
    price $34,500
28. 2018-02-09
    listed $35,500 Active
29. 2004-11-01
    soldstatus $4,000
30. 2004-08-20
    historical
31. 2004-08-19
    listed $5,900
32. 2004-07-14
    listed $12,900
33. 2000-04-30
    historical
34. 1999-11-09
    listed $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $486 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $593 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$108/yr (+$9/mo · 22.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$486
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$897
• − Management: −$897
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $2,716
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$652
• After-tax cash flow: $3,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 14,661
• Household income: $35,753
• Rent vs Own: 51.3% rent · 48.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1148.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 37% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.02%
• Current HPI: 293.2624
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.51%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+188.5% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $75,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $80,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed for Rent $850 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-31 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $95,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $105,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2022-08-09 Price Changed $875 RENT.
• 2018-06-06 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-05-19 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-05-07 Contingent — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-04-18 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-03-07 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2018-02-09 Listed $35,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-02-09 Price Changed $34,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2018-02-09 Price Changed $33,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-11-01 Sold (MLS) $4,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-08-20 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2004-08-19 Listed $5,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2004-07-14 Listed $12,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2000-04-30 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 1999-11-09 Listed $26,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $486 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.