KINGSTON Plan · Godley, TX 76044

$306,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,026 sqft · SingleFamily · 109 Days on market

Excellent condition 2-car garage

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Kingston is a thoughtfully designed single-story home offering approximately 2,026 sq. ft. of living space with 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage. A welcoming front porch opens into a defined foyer that leads into an open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room come together in one bright, connected living space ideal for both daily life and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, a centrally located island with sink overlooking the family room, and a walk-in pantry for added storage. The adjacent dining area flows seamlessly into the spacious family room, creating a comfortable central gathering space.

Key facts

• Defined foyer
• Open-concept layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• DEFINED FOYER
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• CENTRALLY LOCATED ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $306,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $380,561.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $307k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-674 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $248k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 725 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 89d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($279k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,603 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.59%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $380,561
• List price: $306,990
• Delta: -19.33%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
929 Tesslynn Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,974 (-3%)	2mo	$340,000	$172	76
605 E Godley Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,954 (-4%)	6mo	$500,000	$256	75
105 William Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,078 (+3%)	4mo	$379,890	$183	74
812 Tesslynn Ave	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,078 (+3%)	5mo	$359,990	$173	72
928 Tesslynn Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,161 (+7%)	2mo	$379,900	$176	68
920 Rodgers Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-3%)	11mo	$349,900	$179	64
205 High Ridge Ct	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,090 (+3%)	10mo	$395,000	$189	60
517 Highview Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,798 (-11%)	5mo	$335,000	$186	50
412 N Pearson St	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,206 (+9%)	2mo	$394,900	$179	48
500 Bruce Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,977 (-2%)	12mo	$350,000	$177	47
592 Highview Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,843 (-9%)	2mo	$360,000	$195	46
200 High Ridge Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,762 (-13%)	9mo	$369,000	$209	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-104,552
• Equity at exit: $56,743

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-146,158
• Equity at exit: $32,904

Cash invested: $106,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 77 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.3 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,990 ($175/sqft)
• Median days on market: 81 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 725
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,476 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,996
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$476 /mo · $5,708/yr
• Insurance: −$159
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-674

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,329

Max offer price $283,045

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-411	-5% $-542	+0% $-674	+5% $-805	+10% $-937
Rent	-10% $-870	-5% $-772	+0% $-674	+5% $-576	+10% $-478
Rate	-1.0pp $-482	-0.5pp $-577	base $-674	+0.5pp $-773	+1.0pp $-873

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,140
• Closing costs: $11,417
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	139d	1	0.25mi
640 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$2,325	$1.01	35d	1	0.43mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	139d	1	0.44mi
676 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,450	$1.06	26d	1	0.50mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	106d	1	0.52mi
1032 Fairfax Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	35d	1	0.87mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,375	$1.37	86d	1	0.90mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	26d	1	0.90mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	106d	1	1.24mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	112d	1	1.24mi
13404 Balderdash Ct Godley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2025	$2,538	$1.25	0d	1	1.25mi
8806 County Rd 1229 Godley, TX	4.0	3.5	2711	$3,250	$1.20	100d	1	1.33mi
8324 County Road 1006 Godley, TX	3.0	2.5	2386	$2,450	$1.03	88d	1	1.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $306,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (KINGSTON)Located at 708 Archer St, Godley TX 76044
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2026

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: KINGSTONActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $306,990 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $306,990 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $306,990 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $306,990 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $306,990 Active 105 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $306,990 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $306,990 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $306,990 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $306,990 Active 101 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $306,990 Active 100 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $306,990 Active 99 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $306,990 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $306,990 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $306,990 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $306,990 Active 90 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $306,990 Active 88 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $306,990 Active 86 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $306,990 Active 84 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $306,990 Active 83 DOM
20. 2026-08-26
    days on market $306,990 Active 81 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $306,990 Active 80 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $306,990 Active 79 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $306,990 Active 78 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $306,990 Active 77 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $306,990 Active 76 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $306,990 Active 75 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $306,990 Active 74 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $306,990 Active 73 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $306,990 Active 72 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $306,990 Active 71 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $306,990 Active 70 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $306,990 Active 69 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $306,990 Active 68 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $306,990 Active 67 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $306,990 Active 66 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $306,990 Active 65 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $306,990 Active 64 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $306,990 Active 63 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $306,990 Active 61 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $306,990 Active 60 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $306,990 Active 59 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $306,990 Active 58 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $306,990 Active 55 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $306,990 Active 54 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $306,990 Active 53 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $306,990 Active 52 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $306,990 Active 50 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $306,990 Active 48 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $306,990 Active 47 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $306,990 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,712
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,317
• − Property taxes: −$5,708
• − Insurance: −$1,903
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,377
• − Management: −$2,377
• − Depreciation: −$11,071
• Taxable loss: −$15,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,610
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, well-maintained bathrooms, and a good roof. It has a good exterior with landscaping and a neutral paint scheme. The home is move-in ready and can be enhanced with some exterior painting and landscaping to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the living areas — Modernizes the space and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godley El Middle Godley Middle High Godley H S F TX #859/1,632 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Godley, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,759
• Household income: $103,795
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

---

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $306,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (KINGSTON)Located at 708 Archer St, Godley TX 76044
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2026

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: KINGSTONActive listing