None · Calverton, NY 11933

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 120 Days on market

Built 1991 $133/sqft · 34% above area Est $97k · 34% over $1143/mo HOA · 30% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ Community- park approval is required. 2/3 Bedrooms or office or extra den, Full Bath, Large Living Room, Open Kitchen , Foyer, Vaulted Master - light & bright, Very clean & neat. New Floors, Fresh Paint, New water heating system, Just move right in !

Key facts

• New floors
• Fresh paint
• Built 1991

Tags

• NEW FLOORS
• FRESH PAINT
• NEW WATER HEATING SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $895 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 7.2% in Calverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,053 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: crime C-, schools D, employment D.
• Riverhead Central School District (suburban): math 34% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #489 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; HOA is 30% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,209 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.36%
• DSCR: 2.40
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $96,763
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: 34.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1964 River Rd #37	0.13mi	3/1.0	964 (-2%)	6mo	$65,000	$67	86
1964 River Rd #106	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	900 (-8%)	1mo	$92,000	$102	75
1964 River Rd #35	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (-13%)	2mo	$70,000	$82	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $75,244
• Equity at exit: $60,317

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.14×
• Total profit: $186,877
• Equity at exit: $94,467

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11933

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,786 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$1,143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$795
• Net cashflow: $895

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,653

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,143 · $13,716/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $129,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $129,900 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,900 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-02-18
    listed $129,900 Active 264-char remark

    Show marketing remark (264 chars)

    55+ Community- park approval is required. 2/3 Bedrooms or office or extra den, Full Bath, Large Living Room, Open Kitchen , Foyer, Vaulted Master - light & bright, Very clean & neat. New Floors, Fresh Paint, New water heating system, Just move right in !

15. 2025-10-01
    historical
16. 2025-05-05
    price $132,500
17. 2025-04-03
    price $145,000
18. 2025-03-19
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2023-01-14
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed
20. 2022-12-04
    status Pending
21. 2022-11-07
    listed $115,000 Active
22. 2022-11-05
    historical $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$1,316
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,635
• − Management: −$3,635
• − HOA: −$13,716
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable income: $10,132
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,432
• After-tax cash flow: $8,309/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverhead Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 13.00%
• Median HH income: $61,607
• Composite: 36.38/100
• National rank: #4683
• State rank: #489 of 590 in NY

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1053
• US rank: #20908

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C- Employment D Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, NY
• City population: 6,784
• Population (ZIP): 6,784

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 10% Black 8% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Current HPI: 397.7148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+13.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $129,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-05 Price Changed $132,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $145,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-19 Listed $150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-14 Sold (MLS) $115,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-07 Listed $115,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-05 Coming Soon $115,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid