1408 Carterville · Petal, MS 39465

$139,788

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,685 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 459 Days on market

Built 1928 $83/sqft · 32% below area Est $225k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House IS 1,850 Sq Ft MOL Bigger than it looks from Road, this is a MUST SEE!! Spacious, three bedroom, two bath home with oversized laundry room. Room off living room could be for office, playroom, sewing room, etc. Small fenced area next to carport. Long single carport accommodates two vehicles plus turn around next to driveway. Two storage buildings.

Key facts

• Room off living room
• Long single carport
• Small fenced area

Tags

• OVERSIZED LAUNDRY ROOM
• ROOM OFF LIVING ROOM
• SMALL FENCED AREA
• LONG SINGLE CARPORT
• TWO STORAGE BUILDINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.0% in Petal — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#18 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Petal School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #2 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 121 units permitted in Forrest County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $966 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Forrest County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 459 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $140k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,013 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 459 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.59%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,082
• List price: $139,788
• Delta: -37.89%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Harvey Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,801 (+7%)	1mo	$195,000	$108	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,407
• Equity at exit: $20,843

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $32,135
• Equity at exit: $12,086

Cash invested: $39,141 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39465

• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$733
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,134/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,121

Max offer price $139,788

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $418	+0% $378	+5% $339	+10% $299
Rent	-10% $252	-5% $315	+0% $378	+5% $441	+10% $505
Rate	-1.0pp $449	-0.5pp $414	base $378	+0.5pp $342	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,947
• Closing costs: $4,194
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,788 Active 459 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,788 Active 458 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,788 Active 457 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,788 Active 456 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,788 Active 455 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,788 Active 453 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,788 Active 452 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,788 Active 450 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,788 Active 449 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,788 Active 448 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,788 Active 447 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,788 Active 444 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,788 Active 442 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,788 Active 441 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,788 Active 440 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,788 Active 439 DOM
17. 2026-03-06
    price $139,788 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    House IS 1,850 Sq Ft MOL Bigger than it looks from Road, this is a MUST SEE!! Spacious, three bedroom, two bath home with oversized laundry room. Room off living room could be for office, playroom, sewing room, etc. Small fenced area next to carport. Long single carport accommodates two vehicles plus turn around next to driveway. Two storage buildings.

18. 2026-03-06
    price $139,888 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    House IS 1,850 Sq Ft MOL Bigger than it looks from Road, this is a MUST SEE!! Spacious, three bedroom, two bath home with oversized laundry room. Room off living room could be for office, playroom, sewing room, etc. Small fenced area next to carport. Long single carport accommodates two vehicles plus turn around next to driveway. Two storage buildings.

19. 2025-07-10
    price $145,000 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    House IS 1,850 Sq Ft MOL Bigger than it looks from Road, this is a MUST SEE!! Spacious, three bedroom, two bath home with oversized laundry room. Room off living room could be for office, playroom, sewing room, etc. Small fenced area next to carport. Long single carport accommodates two vehicles plus turn around next to driveway. Two storage buildings.

20. 2025-06-30
    price $150,860 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    House IS 1,850 Sq Ft MOL Bigger than it looks from Road, this is a MUST SEE!! Spacious, three bedroom, two bath home with oversized laundry room. Room off living room could be for office, playroom, sewing room, etc. Small fenced area next to carport. Long single carport accommodates two vehicles plus turn around next to driveway. Two storage buildings.

21. 2025-04-08
    price $158,800 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    House IS 1,850 Sq Ft MOL Bigger than it looks from Road, this is a MUST SEE!! Spacious, three bedroom, two bath home with oversized laundry room. Room off living room could be for office, playroom, sewing room, etc. Small fenced area next to carport. Long single carport accommodates two vehicles plus turn around next to driveway. Two storage buildings.

22. 2025-03-09
    listed $162,000 Active 363-char remark

    Show marketing remark (363 chars)

    House IS 1,850 Sq Ft MOL Bigger than it looks from Road, this is a MUST SEE!! Spacious, three bedroom, two bath home with oversized laundry room. Room off living room could be for office, playroom, sewing room, etc. Small fenced area next to carport. Long single carport accommodates two vehicles plus turn around next to driveway. Two storage buildings.

23. 2023-02-23
    soldstatus 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Spacious, well-kept three bedroom, two bath home with oversized laundry room. New windows installed 10 years ago. All appliances remain. Small fenced area next to carport. Long single carport accommodates two vehicles. Two storage buildings.

24. 2022-06-16
    soldstatus
25. 2022-03-02
    soldstatus
26. 2017-06-23
    soldstatus $83,000
27. 2017-04-04
    listed $82,500 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    Spacious, well-kept three bedroom, two bath home with oversized laundry room. New windows installed 10 years ago. All appliances remain. Small fenced area next to carport. Long single carport accommodates two vehicles. Two storage buildings.

28. 2015-05-07
    listed $89,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,134 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,134 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,830
• − Property taxes: −$1,134
• − Insurance: −$699
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$4,067
• Taxable income: $2,398
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$575
• After-tax cash flow: $3,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petal School District
• NCES district ID: 2803530
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,872
• Composite: 52.97/100
• National rank: #1526
• State rank: #2 of 130 in MS

Livability — Petal

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #18
• US rank: #5565

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petal, MS
• County: Forrest County · 65,413 people
• City population: 22,882
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• Population (ZIP): 22,882
• Household income: $74,035
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Forrest County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 79,264 people
• By 2030: 80,822 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 82,979 · +4.7%
• By 2050: 84,324 · +6.4%
• By 2075: 84,942 · +7.2%
• By 2100: 80,616 · +1.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Forrest

• 2024 margin: R (+17.9) · D 40.3% · R 58.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -17.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.9 2020: R+11.1 2016: R+14.2 2012: R+11.7 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.97%
• Current HPI: 158.6021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hattiesburg, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+55.5% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $139,788 HAAR
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $139,888 HAAR
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $145,000 HAAR
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $150,860 HAAR
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $158,800 HAAR
• 2025-03-09 Listed $162,000 HAAR
• 2023-02-23 Sold (MLS) — HAAR
• 2022-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-04 Listed $82,500 HAAR
• 2015-05-07 Listed $89,900 HAAR

Property tax history

-5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,134 · +21.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.