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585 Running Woods St 🌊 Lakefront
D+ Composite 46.67
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +9.2/30.0
  • Schools +5.4/10.0
  • 1% rule +3.8/10.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Livability +3.5/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.4/5.0
  • DSCR +2.6/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$200,000

585 Running Woods St · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32065
2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,109 sqft · Townhouse public records · 138 Days on market
Built 2022 Good condition 1,307 sqft lot $180/sqft · 33% below area Est $297k · 33% under · waterfront $149/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 24% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

VIEWS!!! Water & preserve views in Towering Oaks, within the sought-after master-planned community of Oakleaf Plantation. Enjoy resort living just a stroll from your door with access to exceptional amenities-- lagoon-style pools with slides, a lap pool, adult pool, basketball and tennis courts, sports fields, and more. This beautifully maintained, smart technology, two-story townhome features 2 primary bedrooms with en-suite baths, plus a convenient half bath on the main level. Ideally located just minutes from the Oakleaf Town Center, you'll have easy access to top shopping and dining destinations like Costco, Target, Sam's Club, Walmart, and a variety of restaurants and entertainment options. The nearby First Coast Expressway offers quick access to major interstates in Jacksonville, making commuting a breeze. NAS Jax is also close by, and Oakleaf High School features a highly regarded Aerospace Engineering program.

Key facts

  • Lagoon style pools
  • Smart technology
  • Tennis courts

Tags

MASTER PLANNED COMMUNITYLAGOON STYLE POOLSBASKETBALL COURTSTENNIS COURTSSPORTS FIELDSSMART TECHNOLOGY

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (13.2% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.3% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $174k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Plantation Oaks Elementary School (math 60% / reading 61%, grade B-, #664 of 2,144 statewide, top 32%, 938 students, 48% FRL); Oakleaf Junior High (math 50% / reading 54%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 1,118 students, 46% FRL); Oakleaf High School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #175 of 667 statewide, top 27%, 2,371 students, 36% FRL).
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $173,638 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
  8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
  9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
  10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.88%
Cap rate
5.40%
Cash-on-cash
-3.20%
DSCR
0.86
GRM
9.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$296,548
List price
$200,000
Delta
-32.56%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
660 Yellow Oaks Ln 0.11mi 2/2.5 1,109 (0%) 14mo $198,500 $179 83
3937 Oak Mill Rd 0.11mi 2/2.5 1,107 (-0%) 14mo $215,000 $194 83
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #1803 0.52mi 2/2.5 1,110 (+0%) 3mo $190,000 $171 73
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #1309 0.60mi 2/2.0 1,150 (+4%) 5mo $145,000 $126 60
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #808 0.57mi 2/2.0 1,049 (-5%) 4mo $149,000 $142 59
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #516 0.56mi 2/2.0 1,150 (+4%) 10mo $153,000 $133 57
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #1301 0.60mi 2/2.0 1,049 (-5%) 5mo $150,000 $143 57
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #412 0.49mi 2/2.0 1,150 (+4%) 15mo $165,000 $143 56
575 E Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #1208 0.62mi 2/2.0 1,049 (-5%) 4mo $164,900 $157 56
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #609 0.55mi 2/2.0 1,150 (+4%) 16mo $155,000 $135 52
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #704 0.59mi 2/2.0 1,049 (-5%) 13mo $162,750 $155 50
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #1314 0.59mi 1/1.0 (-1) 1,011 (-9%) 16mo $129,900 $128 34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-20.7%
Equity multiple
0.28×
Total profit
$-40,496
Equity at exit
$29,821
10-year hold
IRR
-12.1%
Equity multiple
0.26×
Total profit
$-41,613
Equity at exit
$17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
13 active · 9 under contract
Months of supply
7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$174,500 ($158/sqft)
Median days on market
142 d
This list price
85% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+69.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32065

Home prices YoY
-25.6%
Rents YoY
3.7%
Active inventory
307
Price-to-rent
9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,753 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,049
Tax from tax record
$253 /mo · $3,037/yr
Insurance
$83
HOA
$149
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$368
Net cashflow
$-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,942
Max offer price $173,638
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-36 -5% $-93 +0% $-149 +5% $-206 +10% $-262
Rent -10% $-288 -5% $-218 +0% $-149 +5% $-80 +10% $-11
Rate -1.0pp $-49 -0.5pp $-98 base $-149 +0.5pp $-201 +1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$50,000
Closing costs
$6,000
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 35 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
607 Crystal Way Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1440 $1,725 $1.20 100d 1 0.07mi
3978 Oak Mill Rd Orange Park, FL 2.0 2.5 1109 $1,450 $1.31 9d 1 0.09mi
3978 Oak Mill Rd Orange Park, FL 2.0 2.5 1109 $1,500 $1.35 67d 1 0.09mi
508 Running Woods St Orange Park, FL 2.0 2.5 1107 $1,600 $1.45 2d 1 0.09mi
3945 Buckthorne Dr Unit A Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1439 $1,695 $1.18 5d 1 0.09mi
3954 Oak Mill Rd Orange Park, FL 2.0 2.5 1109 $1,595 $1.44 9d 1 0.10mi
525 Big Tree Way Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1335 $1,850 $1.39 9d 1 0.11mi
513 Spanish Oaks Way Orange Park, FL 2.0 2.5 1109 $1,600 $1.44 112d 1 0.12mi
3940 Ivory Xing Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1440 $1,595 $1.11 9d 1 0.13mi
448 Running Woods St Unit 1 Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1333 $1,850 $1.39 119d 1 0.14mi
3972 Village View Ln Orange Park, FL 2.0 3.0 1109 $1,600 $1.44 80d 1 0.14mi
3972 Village View Ln Orange Park, FL 2.0 2.5 1109 $1,695 $1.53 119d 1 0.14mi
3996 Village View Ln Orange Park, FL 2.0 2.0 918 $1,524 $1.66 100d 1 0.15mi
433 Running Woods St Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1308 $1,845 $1.41 6d 1 0.17mi
785 Oakleaf Plantation Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1421 $2,000 $1.41 68d 1 0.26mi
785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #1824 Orange Park, FL 2.0 2.0 1339 $1,495 $1.12 87d 1 0.27mi
785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL 2.0–3.0 2.0 1430 $1,750 $1.22 119d 1 0.28mi
785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL 3.0–4.0 2.0 1593 $1,650 $1.04 9d 3 0.28mi
785 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL 3.0–4.0 2.0 1593 $1,600 $1.00 9d 3 0.28mi
625 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy #1113 Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1419 $2,000 $1.41 9d 1 0.42mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 1016 $2,300 $2.26 66d 3 0.59mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 1016 $2,300 $2.26 76d 5 0.59mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.5 1016 $2,300 $2.26 7d 2 0.59mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 1016 $2,300 $2.26 68d 3 0.59mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 969 $2,300 $2.37 119d 6 0.59mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL 2.0 1.0–2.0 1080 $1,888 $1.75 57d 3 0.59mi
575 Oakleaf Plantation Pkwy Orange Park, FL 1.0–2.0 1.0–2.0 1016 $2,300 $2.26 82d 5 0.59mi
550 Drysdale Dr Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1264 $1,875 $1.48 9d 1 0.70mi
607 Reese Ave Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.5 1475 $1,800 $1.22 0d 1 0.86mi
3800 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1353 $1,840 $1.36 68d 1 1.23mi
4123 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1334 $2,045 $1.53 97d 1 1.25mi
4119 Pebble Brooke Cir Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1349 $1,850 $1.37 62d 1 1.26mi
3703 Silver Bluff Blvd Orange Park, FL 3.0 2.0 1497 $1,850 $1.24 62d 1 1.35mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1068 $1,904 $1.78 0d 20 1.40mi
250 Cherry Ridge Dr Jacksonville, FL 1.0–3.0 1.0–2.0 1088 $1,522 $1.40 0d 19 1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Unit is unfurnished
Financial info
Other annual assessment $740Total annual HOA/fees $1,788Lease restrictions apply
HOA & community
Monthly HOA fee $149 (includes grounds maintenance)Association required (Pat Tully)Community clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool, sidewalks, tennis courtsPets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

Parking
Assigned parking
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedWater connectedSewer connected
Home design
TownhouseResidential propertyCompleted conditionTwo storiesFaces southeastEntry on second floor (unit on 2nd floor)
Construction
Shingle roofSlab foundationBuilt on two levels
Exterior features
AwningsSidewalkSliding doorsSprinkler (metered)StoragePond view

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherRangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorEat-in kitchen
Bedrooms
2 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetCeramic tile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air
Interior features
Ceiling fansEat-in kitchenKitchen open to family roomOpen floorplanThermostatWalk-in closets
Laundry & utility
Washer and dryer includedLaundry inside on upper level

HOA detail $149/mo · $1,788/yr

Likely covers
waterpool

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    days on market $200,000 Active 138 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $200,000 Active 137 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $200,000 Active 136 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $200,000 Active 135 DOM
  5. 2026-09-19
    days on market $200,000 Active 134 DOM
  6. 2026-09-18
    days on market $200,000 Active 133 DOM
  7. 2026-09-17
    days on market $200,000 Active 132 DOM
  8. 2026-09-16
    days on market $200,000 Active 131 DOM
  9. 2026-09-15
    days on market $200,000 Active 130 DOM
  10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $200,000 Active 129 DOM
  11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $200,000 Active 128 DOM
  12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $200,000 Active 127 DOM
  13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $200,000 Active 126 DOM
  14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 120 DOM
  15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 119 DOM
  16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 118 DOM
  17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 115 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $200,000 Active 113 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $200,000 Active 112 DOM
  20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $200,000 Active 111 DOM
  21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $200,000 Active 109 DOM
  22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $200,000 Active 108 DOM
  23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $200,000 Active 107 DOM
  24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $200,000 Active 106 DOM
  25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $200,000 Active 105 DOM
  26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $200,000 Active 104 DOM
  27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $200,000 Active 103 DOM
  28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $200,000 Active 102 DOM
  29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $200,000 Active 101 DOM
  30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $200,000 Active 100 DOM
  31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $200,000 Active 99 DOM
  32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $200,000 Active 98 DOM
  33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $200,000 Active 97 DOM
  34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $200,000 Active 96 DOM
  35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $200,000 Active 95 DOM
  36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $200,000 Active 94 DOM
  37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $200,000 Active 93 DOM
  38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 92 DOM
  39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 91 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $200,000 Active 90 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $200,000 Active 89 DOM
  42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 88 DOM
  43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 87 DOM
  44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 84 DOM
  45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 82 DOM
  46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $200,000 Active 81 DOM
  47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $200,000 Active 79 DOM
  48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $200,000 Active 77 DOM
  49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $200,000 Active 76 DOM
  50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $200,000 Active 75 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$3,037 · $253/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$3,037 · $253/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$21,038
− Mortgage interest
−$11,203
− Property taxes
−$3,037
− Insurance
−$1,000
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,683
− Management
−$1,683
− HOA
−$1,788
− Depreciation
−$5,818
Taxable loss
−$5,174
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$1,242
After-tax cash flow
$-549/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,545–$16,635 screening

This well-maintained townhouse in Oakleaf Plantation offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and a great location.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and property value
  • Both Pool maintenance — Keeps the community amenity in top condition

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Plantation Oaks Elementary School B- FL #664/2,144 Nat'l #7,053/41,679 Middle Oakleaf Junior High C+ FL #217/571 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Oakleaf High School D+ FL #175/667 Nat'l #5,448/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Clay
NCES district ID
1200300
Math proficiency
58% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency
59% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income
$59,379
Composite
50.73/100
National rank
#1815
State rank
#14 of 73 in FL
B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

Score
70/100
State rank
#446
US rank
#8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Oakleaf Plantation, FL
County
Clay County · 230,495 people
City population
40,366
Metro
Jacksonville, FL
Population (ZIP)
41,578
Household income
$97,455
Rent vs Own
27.5% rent · 72.5% own
Severe rent burden
10% of renters

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
230,495 people
By 2030
242,427 · +5.2%
By 2040
262,244 · +13.8%
By 2050
275,148 · +19.4%
By 2075
295,397 · +28.2%
By 2100
287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
Race & ethnicity
White 51% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 15% Asian 6%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 3%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada, China
Languages at home
88% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

2024 margin
Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
2008→2024 swing
+3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
All cycles
2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-24.0% since first listed
20 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-05 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-05 Price Changed $200,000 realMLS
  • 2026-05-08 Listed $207,900 realMLS
  • 2026-05-08 Listed $207,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-03-26 Listing Removed realMLS
  • 2026-01-02 Price Changed $219,900 realMLS
  • 2025-09-26 Listed $225,000 realMLS
  • 2025-08-21 Listing Removed realMLS
  • 2025-06-19 Price Changed $235,000 realMLS
  • 2025-03-28 Price Changed $240,000 realMLS
  • 2025-02-21 Listed $250,000 realMLS
  • 2023-01-30 Sold (MLS) $220,990 realMLS
  • 2022-12-14 Pending realMLS
  • 2022-12-08 Price Changed $225,990 realMLS
  • 2022-12-01 Price Changed $227,990 realMLS
  • 2022-12-01 Relisted realMLS
  • 2022-07-05 Pending realMLS
  • 2022-06-22 Price Changed $252,990 realMLS
  • 2022-06-15 Price Changed $257,990 realMLS
  • 2022-05-25 Listed $262,990 realMLS

Property tax history

+46.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,037 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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