2746 Columbia Ln #10 · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85928

$129,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Manufactured · 39 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition $322/sqft · at area comps Est $127k · at est. ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Built 2021
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential type: Park Model/RV
• Financial info: Assessments present
• HOA & community: No HOA; Leased land with a monthly lease of $495

Exterior

• Utilities: Metered water available; Sewer available; Power available
• Home design: Manufactured park model (Park Model/RV); One story; Located in Rocky Rim Resort Cabins
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Trees on the property; Road maintenance by the city

Interior

• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $469 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($892 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,130 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.59%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,932
• List price: $129,000
• Delta: 1.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $31,435
• Equity at exit: $43,082

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.47×
• Total profit: $89,098
• Equity at exit: $56,520

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85928

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,723 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $469

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $559	-5% $514	+0% $469	+5% $425	+10% $380
Rent	-10% $333	-5% $401	+0% $469	+5% $537	+10% $605
Rate	-1.0pp $534	-0.5pp $502	base $469	+0.5pp $436	+1.0pp $402

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $129,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $129,000 Active
18. 2026-05-02
    historical
19. 2026-04-10
    listed $129,000 Active
20. 2025-10-03
    historical
21. 2025-07-12
    price $130,000
22. 2025-06-28
    price $134,900
23. 2025-06-28
    price $133,500
24. 2025-05-06
    listed $144,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,672
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,654
• − Management: −$1,654
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $3,805
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$913
• After-tax cash flow: $4,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good exterior, roof, and interior. It has a well-maintained deck and outdoor hot tub, making it a good candidate for cosmetic improvements to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Clean and maintain the deck — A clean and well-maintained deck can add value and provide a pleasant outdoor space for potential buyers or renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Clean and maintain the deck — A clean and well-maintained deck can add value and provide a pleasant outdoor space for potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 376

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Current HPI: 443.6984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-11.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $129,000 WMMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $129,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-07-12 Price Changed $130,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $134,900 ARMLS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $133,500 ARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Listed $144,900 ARMLS