3681 Causeway Rd · Tully, NY 13110

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 735 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1950 4,000 sqft lot $272/sqft · 35% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sweet home close to OTISCO LAKE. Enjoy being 'at camp' year-round! The deck on the side of the home offers sunshine in the warm months, while inside the large family/dining room is cozy in the winter. Two bedrooms and the full bath are on the first floor also. Upstairs is a single bedroom with a balcony - lake views too! It's an easy couple minutes walk to the Causeway. You can buy this for less than you can rent. Investors - take note! - this property has rented consistently! Tully schools! Easy commute to Syracuse, Auburn and Cortland. Here's a thought - keep your boat at the marina for excellent fishing or sunbathing. Full market value: $83,333

Key facts

• 4,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 7 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Circuit breaker electrical service; Septic tank; Private well
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Asphalt roof; Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Covered patio/porch; Patio; Porch; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Laminate; Resilient; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Has heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Dining area; Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Combined living/dining room; Workshop; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (7.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.7% in Tully — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#800 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Tully Central School District (rural): math 53% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #308 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 11 active listings in the ZIP; 616 units permitted in Onondaga County in 2024 (256 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Onondaga County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $200k implies a 335% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $168,332 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $568,417
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -64.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3681 Nt Ave	0.03mi	3/1.0 (+1)	720 (-2%)	8mo	$120,000	$167	83
3565 J C Ave	0.07mi	2/1.0	718 (-2%)	19mo	$179,900	$251	77
1742 Otisco Valley Rd Rd	0.48mi	3/1.5 (+1)	844 (+15%)	12mo	$350,000	$415	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $97,677
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.31×
• Total profit: $296,967
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13110

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$510 /mo · $6,121/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,078

Max offer price $168,332

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 1220-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   listed $199,900 Active 1220-char remark
3. 2017-07-14
   soldstatus $46,000
4. 2017-06-16
   soldstatus $49,900 Closed Sale or Rented 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Sweet home close to OTISCO LAKE. Enjoy being 'at camp' year-round! The deck on the side of the home offers sunshine in the warm months, while inside the large family/dining room is cozy in the winter. Two bedrooms and the full bath are on the first floor also. Upstairs is a single bedroom with a balcony - lake views too! It's an easy couple minutes walk to the Causeway. You can buy this for less than you can rent. Investors - take note! - this property has rented consistently! Tully schools! Easy commute to Syracuse, Auburn and Cortland. Here's a thought - keep your boat at the marina for excellent fishing or sunbathing. Full market value: $83,333

5. 2017-04-27
   status Pending Sale 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Sweet home close to OTISCO LAKE. Enjoy being 'at camp' year-round! The deck on the side of the home offers sunshine in the warm months, while inside the large family/dining room is cozy in the winter. Two bedrooms and the full bath are on the first floor also. Upstairs is a single bedroom with a balcony - lake views too! It's an easy couple minutes walk to the Causeway. You can buy this for less than you can rent. Investors - take note! - this property has rented consistently! Tully schools! Easy commute to Syracuse, Auburn and Cortland. Here's a thought - keep your boat at the marina for excellent fishing or sunbathing. Full market value: $83,333

6. 2017-04-21
   historical Continue to Show- Under Contract 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Sweet home close to OTISCO LAKE. Enjoy being 'at camp' year-round! The deck on the side of the home offers sunshine in the warm months, while inside the large family/dining room is cozy in the winter. Two bedrooms and the full bath are on the first floor also. Upstairs is a single bedroom with a balcony - lake views too! It's an easy couple minutes walk to the Causeway. You can buy this for less than you can rent. Investors - take note! - this property has rented consistently! Tully schools! Easy commute to Syracuse, Auburn and Cortland. Here's a thought - keep your boat at the marina for excellent fishing or sunbathing. Full market value: $83,333

7. 2017-03-23
   listed $54,000 Active 659-char remark

   Show marketing remark (659 chars)

   Sweet home close to OTISCO LAKE. Enjoy being 'at camp' year-round! The deck on the side of the home offers sunshine in the warm months, while inside the large family/dining room is cozy in the winter. Two bedrooms and the full bath are on the first floor also. Upstairs is a single bedroom with a balcony - lake views too! It's an easy couple minutes walk to the Causeway. You can buy this for less than you can rent. Investors - take note! - this property has rented consistently! Tully schools! Easy commute to Syracuse, Auburn and Cortland. Here's a thought - keep your boat at the marina for excellent fishing or sunbathing. Full market value: $83,333

8. 2016-10-22
   historical
9. 2016-07-21
   price $57,000
10. 2016-05-16
    price $59,000
11. 2016-03-24
    listed $64,900 Active
12. 2014-04-25
    listed $59,000
13. 2007-11-05
    soldstatus $55,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,121 · $510/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,121 · $510/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,222
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$6,121
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,778
• − Management: −$1,778
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$5,466
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,312
• After-tax cash flow: $-832/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tully Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3629130
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $67,026
• Composite: 46.91/100
• National rank: #2365
• State rank: #308 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tully

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #800
• US rank: #15471

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,297
• Population (ZIP): 2,374

Population outlook (Onondaga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 467,894 people
• By 2030: 463,381 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 447,697 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 426,399 · -8.9%
• By 2075: 373,661 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 307,967 · -34.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Italian 7% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onondaga

• 2024 margin: D (+17.3) · D 58.6% · R 41.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: 20.3pp · 2024: 17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.3 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+12.8 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+20.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.70%
• Current HPI: 364.1864
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+260.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $199,900 CNYIS
• 2017-07-14 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-16 Sold (MLS) $49,900 CNYIS
• 2017-04-27 Pending — CNYIS
• 2017-04-21 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2017-03-23 Listed $54,000 CNYIS
• 2016-10-22 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2016-07-21 Price Changed $57,000 CNYIS
• 2016-05-16 Price Changed $59,000 CNYIS
• 2016-03-24 Listed $64,900 CNYIS
• 2014-04-25 Listed $59,000 CNYIS
• 2007-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $55,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,121 · +69.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.