The 1818 Plan · Nolanville, TX 76559

$295,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,855 sqft · SingleFamily · 141 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! If charm and elegance are what you're looking for - Welcome home! A favorite of many, the 1818 has several features that make it stand out from the rest. From the moment your eyes catch the stunning exterior, you're captivated. Interior features include dual living areas to use as you choose, a large kitchen with granite-topped island that is open through the dining and living room, stunning windows flowing with natural light, an optional study alcove, and a spacious primary suite.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 141 days

🏗️ New construction. The $295,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $319,655.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $296k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-609 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (31.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (31.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#176 in TX, #4,655 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard E Cavazos El (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 607 students, 66% FRL); Rancier Middle (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 722 students, 81% FRL); Killeen H S (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,076 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 47% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 334 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $119 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,481 (31.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,655
• List price: $295,900
• Delta: -7.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 Slippery Elm Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,928 (+4%)	3mo	$327,000	$170	81
204 Slippery Elm Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,036 (+10%)	3mo	$344,000	$169	73
103 Slippery Elm Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (+8%)	0mo	$374,900	$186	72
204 Sugar Maple Ct	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,978 (+7%)	9mo	$315,000	$159	68
313 Shadbush Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,610 (-13%)	1mo	$313,000	$194	64
349 Wayne Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,826 (-2%)	1mo	$330,000	$181	63
309 Shadbush Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,625 (-12%)	3mo	$310,000	$191	63
318 Walking Stick Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,996 (+8%)	18mo	$332,000	$166	61
106 Black Gum Ct	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-11%)	10mo	$250,000	$151	60
905 N 1st St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,921 (+4%)	7mo	$453,000	$236	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-47,580
• Equity at exit: $93,411

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-48,724
• Equity at exit: $112,759

Cash invested: $89,503 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 54 active · 25 under contract
• Months of supply: 36.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $280,265 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 85 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76559

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 334
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,795/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-609

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,796

Max offer price $231,465

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-389	-5% $-499	+0% $-609	+5% $-720	+10% $-830
Rent	-10% $-769	-5% $-689	+0% $-609	+5% $-529	+10% $-450
Rate	-1.0pp $-448	-0.5pp $-528	base $-609	+0.5pp $-692	+1.0pp $-777

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,914
• Closing costs: $9,590
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Black Walnut Ct Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2017	$1,895	$0.94	0d	1	0.19mi
217 Slippery Elm Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.5	2076	$2,250	$1.08	0d	1	0.19mi
209 Sugar Maple Ct Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1942	$1,950	$1.00	0d	1	0.25mi
726 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1881	$2,123	$1.13	0d	1	0.35mi
810 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1974	$3,895	$1.97	109d	1	0.36mi
706 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2191	$2,223	$1.01	6d	1	0.37mi
854 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$1,901	$0.94	139d	1	0.38mi
621 Old Glory Rd Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1752	$1,823	$1.04	6d	1	0.39mi
870 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2191	$2,223	$1.01	116d	1	0.40mi
853 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,073	$1.03	109d	1	0.41mi
605 Old Glory Rd Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,073	$1.03	119d	1	0.43mi
408 W St John Ave Apt A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,100	$0.88	139d	1	0.45mi
202 East Avenue H Unit H Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,550	$1.12	119d	1	0.90mi
310 10th St Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,095	$0.85	139d	1	1.01mi
303 Cedar Ridge Dr Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,195	$0.93	6d	1	1.04mi
308 Cedar Ridge Dr Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2562	$1,050	$0.41	109d	1	1.07mi
405 Gina Dr Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1627	$1,650	$1.01	6d	1	1.09mi
309 Sims Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1631	$1,525	$0.94	6d	1	1.10mi
406 Diana Ln Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,600	$0.99	139d	1	1.18mi
406 Diana Ln Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,750	$1.08	6d	1	1.18mi
304 Timber Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,750	$0.96	0d	1	1.19mi
120 Cedar Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1668	$1,745	$1.05	0d	1	1.21mi
1602 Old Nolanville Rd Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,350	$1.06	119d	1	1.26mi
1602 Old Nolanville Rd Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,250	$0.98	6d	1	1.26mi
106 Cedar Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$1,695	$0.94	109d	1	1.30mi
1806 Iron Jacket Trl Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	2178	$2,345	$1.08	119d	1	1.30mi
1804 Iron Jacket Trl Harker Heights, TX	4.0	3.0	2587	$2,395	$0.93	139d	1	1.30mi
2010 Red Fox Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2136	$2,175	$1.02	6d	1	1.35mi
7026 Chimney Hill Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.5	2041	$2,200	$1.08	119d	1	1.36mi
1805 Diana Ln Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1732	$1,595	$0.92	139d	1	1.37mi
707 End O Trl Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,850	$1.23	109d	1	1.43mi
801 Doubles Ct Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1885	$1,675	$0.89	6d	1	1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Nolanville, TX 76559
• Financial info: List price: $294,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Home design: The 1818 floor planNew construction plan
• Construction: New construction (Plan)Built as The 1818 model
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,855 square feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $295,900 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $295,900 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $295,900 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $295,900 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $295,900 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $295,900 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $295,900 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $295,900 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $295,900 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $295,900 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $295,900 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $295,900 Active 129 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $295,900 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $295,900 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $295,900 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $295,900 Active 118 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $295,900 Active 117 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $295,900 Active 116 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $295,900 Active 115 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $295,900 Active 114 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $295,900 Active 113 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $295,900 Active 112 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $295,900 Active 111 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $295,900 Active 110 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $295,900 Active 109 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $295,900 Active 108 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $295,900 Active 107 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $295,900 Active 106 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $295,900 Active 105 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $295,900 Active 104 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $295,900 Active 103 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $295,900 Active 102 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $295,900 Active 101 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $295,900 Active 100 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $295,900 Active 99 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $295,900 Active 98 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $295,900 Active 97 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $295,900 Active 96 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $295,900 Active 95 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $295,900 Active 94 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $295,900 Active 93 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $295,900 Active 92 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $295,900 Active 91 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $295,900 Active 90 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $295,900 Active 87 DOM
46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $295,900 Active 85 DOM
47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $295,900 Active 83 DOM
48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $295,900 Active 81 DOM
49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $295,900 Active 80 DOM
50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $295,900 Active 79 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,906
• − Property taxes: −$4,795
• − Insurance: −$1,598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$9,299
• Taxable loss: −$13,188
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,165
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,149/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,275–$27,825 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior trim and replacing the countertops.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Improves functionality and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Richard E Cavazos El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Rancier Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Harker Heights H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Nolanville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #176
• US rank: #4655

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nolanville, TX
• County: Bell · 371,114 people
• City population: 6,896
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,896
• Household income: $72,388
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 170.1375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Nolanville, TX 76559
• Financial info: List price: $294,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Home design: The 1818 floor planNew construction plan
• Construction: New construction (Plan)Built as The 1818 model
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,855 square feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)