The 1818 Plan · Nolanville, TX 76559

$286,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,855 sqft · SingleFamily · 187 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Some images shown may be from a previously built Stylecraft home of similar design. Actual options, colors, and selections may vary. Contact us for details! If charm and elegance are what you're looking for - Welcome home! A favorite of many, the 1818 has several features that make it stand out from the rest. From the moment your eyes catch the stunning exterior, you're captivated. Interior features include dual living areas to use as you choose, a large kitchen with granite-topped island that is open through the dining and living room, stunning windows flowing with natural light, an optional study alcove, and a spacious primary suite.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 186 days

🏗️ New construction. The $286,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $309,154.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $287k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-594 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (22.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $195k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#176 in TX, #4,655 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard E Cavazos El (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 607 students, 66% FRL); Rancier Middle (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 722 students, 81% FRL); Killeen H S (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,076 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 47% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 388 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $115 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $195,196 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.24%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,154
• List price: $286,900
• Delta: -7.20%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
210 Thoroughbred Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,855 (0%)	0mo	$299,900	$162	93
253 Quarter Horse Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,873 (+1%)	1mo	$283,815	$152	84
203 Slippery Elm Dr	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,928 (+4%)	5mo	$327,000	$170	80
321 Clydesdale Ln	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (-3%)	1mo	$272,930	$152	77
204 Slippery Elm Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,036 (+10%)	5mo	$344,000	$169	72
103 Slippery Elm Dr	0.10mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,012 (+8%)	2mo	$374,900	$186	70
261 Quarter Horse Rd	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,612 (-13%)	1mo	$240,000	$149	64
313 Shadbush Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,610 (-13%)	3mo	$313,000	$194	63
349 Wayne Dr	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,826 (-2%)	2mo	$330,000	$181	62
309 Shadbush Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,625 (-12%)	4mo	$310,000	$191	62
905 N 1st St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,921 (+4%)	8mo	$453,000	$236	54
409 Mustang Loop	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,657 (-11%)	0mo	$289,000	$174	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-46,336
• Equity at exit: $90,343

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-47,812
• Equity at exit: $109,055

Cash invested: $86,563 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 65 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 26.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $287,895 ($165/sqft)
• Median days on market: 55 d
• This list price: 48% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76559

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,952 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,621
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$386 /mo · $4,637/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $-594

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,704

Max offer price $223,137

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-381	-5% $-488	+0% $-594	+5% $-701	+10% $-808
Rent	-10% $-749	-5% $-672	+0% $-594	+5% $-517	+10% $-440
Rate	-1.0pp $-439	-0.5pp $-516	base $-594	+0.5pp $-675	+1.0pp $-756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,289
• Closing costs: $9,275
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
207 Black Walnut Ct Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2017	$1,895	$0.94	36d	1	0.19mi
217 Slippery Elm Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.5	2076	$2,250	$1.08	5d	1	0.19mi
217 Slippery Elm Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.5	2076	$2,250	$1.08	1d	1	0.19mi
318 Walking Stick Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,400	$1.20	17d	1	0.20mi
318 Walking Stick Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1996	$2,400	$1.20	10d	1	0.20mi
220 Black Walnut Ct Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2158	$2,200	$1.02	18d	1	0.24mi
220 Black Walnut Ct Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2158	$2,200	$1.02	5d	1	0.24mi
209 Sugar Maple Ct Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1990	$1,950	$0.98	0d	1	0.25mi
209 Sugar Maple Ct Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1990	$1,950	$0.98	1d	1	0.25mi
729 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1639	$2,095	$1.28	0d	1	0.32mi
726 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1881	$1,895	$1.01	0d	1	0.35mi
810 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1974	$3,895	$1.97	154d	1	0.36mi
706 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2191	$1,995	$0.91	0d	1	0.37mi
854 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$1,901	$0.94	184d	1	0.38mi
621 Old Glory Rd Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1752	$1,823	$1.04	51d	1	0.39mi
870 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2191	$2,223	$1.01	162d	1	0.40mi
845 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1752	$1,872	$1.07	10d	1	0.40mi
853 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,073	$1.03	154d	1	0.41mi
605 Old Glory Rd Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,073	$1.03	164d	1	0.43mi
138 Ryan Cir Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.5	1271	$1,025	$0.81	41d	1	0.44mi
408 W St John Ave Apt A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,100	$0.88	184d	1	0.45mi
202 East Avenue H Unit H Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,550	$1.12	164d	1	0.90mi
100 Moss Rd Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1431	$1,525	$1.07	10d	1	0.93mi
310 10th St Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,095	$0.85	184d	1	1.01mi
370 Nolan Ridge Dr Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,150	$0.90	41d	1	1.02mi
319 Cedar Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,000	$0.78	37d	1	1.03mi
309 Cedar Ridge Dr Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2562	$1,100	$0.43	10d	1	1.04mi
309 Cedar Ridge Dr Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,150	$0.90	41d	1	1.04mi
309 Cedar Ridge Dr Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,150	$0.90	40d	1	1.04mi
303 Cedar Ridge Dr Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,195	$0.93	10d	1	1.04mi
303 Cedar Ridge Dr Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,195	$0.93	31d	1	1.04mi
308 Cedar Ridge Dr Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2562	$1,050	$0.41	154d	1	1.07mi
405 Gina Dr Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1627	$1,595	$0.98	10d	1	1.09mi
309 Sims Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1631	$1,525	$0.94	51d	1	1.10mi
309 Sims Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1631	$1,525	$0.94	10d	1	1.10mi
212 Cedar Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1673	$1,745	$1.04	12d	1	1.11mi
212 Cedar Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1673	$1,745	$1.04	0d	1	1.11mi
403 Jason Dr Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1994	$1,677	$0.84	7d	1	1.17mi
403 Jason Dr Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1994	$1,677	$0.84	0d	1	1.17mi
406 Diana Ln Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,600	$0.99	184d	1	1.18mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Nolanville, TX 76559
• Financial info: List price: $294,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Home design: The 1818 floor planNew construction plan
• Construction: New construction (Plan)Built as The 1818 model
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,855 square feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $286,900 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $286,900 Active 186 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $286,900 Active 185 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $286,900 Active 184 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $286,900 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $286,900 Active 181 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $286,900 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $286,900 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $286,900 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $286,900 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $286,900 Active 176 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $286,900 Active 175 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $286,900 Active 174 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $286,900 Active 173 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $286,900 Active 172 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $286,900 Active 171 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $286,900 Active 170 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $286,900 Active 169 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $286,900 Active 168 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $286,900 Active 167 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $286,900 Active 166 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $286,900 Active 165 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $286,900 Active 164 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $286,900 Active 163 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $286,900 Active 162 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    price $286,900 Active 161 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $295,900 Active 161 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $295,900 Active 160 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $295,900 Active 159 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $295,900 Active 158 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $295,900 Active 157 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $295,900 Active 156 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $295,900 Active 155 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $295,900 Active 154 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $295,900 Active 153 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $295,900 Active 152 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $295,900 Active 151 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $295,900 Active 150 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $295,900 Active 149 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $295,900 Active 148 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $295,900 Active 147 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $295,900 Active 146 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $295,900 Active 145 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $295,900 Active 144 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $295,900 Active 143 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $295,900 Active 142 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $295,900 Active 141 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $295,900 Active 140 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $295,900 Active 139 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $295,900 Active 138 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,424
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,317
• − Property taxes: −$4,637
• − Insurance: −$1,546
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,874
• − Management: −$1,874
• − Depreciation: −$8,994
• Taxable loss: −$12,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,076
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,275–$27,825 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior trim and replacing the countertops.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Improves functionality and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Richard E Cavazos El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Rancier Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Harker Heights H S F TX #652/1,632 Nat'l #6,890/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Nolanville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #176
• US rank: #4655

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nolanville, TX
• County: Bell · 371,114 people
• City population: 6,896
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,896
• Household income: $72,388
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 5% of renters

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Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 170.1375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Nolanville, TX 76559
• Financial info: List price: $294,900

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
• Home design: The 1818 floor planNew construction plan
• Construction: New construction (Plan)Built as The 1818 model
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,855 square feet

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility: Laundry/utility area (details not specified)