2656 Nagano Dr · Clearwater, FL 33764

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · Manufactured · 360 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $131k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Shuffleboard courts
• Library
• Exceptional location

Tags

• EXCEPTIONAL LOCATION
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• RECREATION HALL
• BILLIARDS & CARD ROOM
• LIBRARY
• SHUFFLEBOARD COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $159,900

Exterior

• Home design: Spec new-construction plan: 2656 Nagano Drive; Address: 2656 Nagano Dr, Clearwater FL 33764

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1008

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $506 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 2.9% in Clearwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #988 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.2%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 360 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 360 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.56%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $131,040
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18675 US Highway 19 N #478	0.55mi	2/1.5	936 (-7%)	3mo	$69,900	$75	58
585 Sky Harbor Dr #416	0.52mi	2/1.0	946 (-6%)	10mo	$130,000	$137	53
20000 US Highway 19 N #420	0.45mi	2/1.5	966 (-4%)	20mo	$80,000	$83	53
585 Sky Harbor Dr #312	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+7%)	16mo	$157,000	$145	51
20000 US Highway 19 N #512	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,115 (+11%)	13mo	$145,000	$130	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $374
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $18,856
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33764

• Rents YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $506

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,399

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19355 US Highway 19 N Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,489	$2.28	3d	13	0.22mi
2650 Pearce Dr #111 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,000	$1.67	14d	1	0.24mi
1012 Pearce Dr #304 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,049	$1.71	4d	1	0.24mi
2650 Pearce Dr Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1175	$1,850	$1.57	24d	2	0.24mi
1001 Pearce Dr #302 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.5	1048	$1,750	$1.67	4d	1	0.27mi
19135 US Highway 19 N Clearwater, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1139	$1,849	$1.62	1d	30	0.31mi
2729 Seville Blvd Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$2,432	$2.30	1d	33	0.37mi
20000 US Highway 19 N #612 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	24d	1	0.41mi
19029 US Highway 19 N Unit 6-10 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	4d	1	0.43mi
20000 US Highway 19 N Unit 610 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	24d	1	0.44mi
2505 Harn Blvd #1 Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.5	1429	$2,400	$1.68	3d	1	0.45mi
19029 U.S. 19 Unit 1-19 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.5	950	$2,000	$2.11	21d	1	0.45mi
19029 U.S. 19 Unit 7-8 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$2,200	$2.08	17d	1	0.45mi
2525 Harn Blvd #3 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.5	1252	$1,899	$1.52	24d	1	0.51mi
2465 Brentwood Dr Clearwater, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,550	$1.96	24d	1	0.58mi
1330 Moreland Dr Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1192	$2,125	$1.78	24d	3	0.63mi
2430 Harn Blvd Unit 7 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	725	$1,500	$2.07	3d	1	0.65mi
2430 Harn Blvd Unit 14 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	725	$1,400	$1.93	24d	1	0.65mi
1515 Flournoy Loop Unit 1511622P Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	796	$3,057	$3.84	14d	1	0.70mi
1515 Flournoy Loop Unit 1511623P Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	796	$4,866	$6.11	1d	1	0.70mi
2730 Via Tivoli Unit 332B Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1198	$2,350	$1.96	24d	1	0.77mi
2730 Via Tivoli Unit 320B Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,350	$1.72	4d	1	0.77mi
1551 Flournoy Cir W Clearwater, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	916	$2,086	$2.28	1d	32	0.77mi
2738 Via Tivoli Unit 231B Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,500	$1.91	24d	1	0.78mi
2709 Via Cipriani Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,050	$1.50	24d	1	0.79mi
2709 Via Cipriani Unit 531A Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1309	$2,150	$1.64	24d	1	0.79mi
2755 Via Capri #1237 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	21d	1	0.81mi
2755 Via Capri #1220 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,300	$2.02	24d	1	0.81mi
2755 Via Capri #1226 Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	980	$2,798	$2.86	4d	1	0.81mi
2755 Via Capri #1211 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,995	$1.75	4d	1	0.81mi
1564 Flournoy Cir W Unit 1515105P Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	990	$5,329	$5.38	14d	1	0.81mi
2747 Via Capri #1126 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$2,250	$1.83	4d	1	0.82mi
2739 Via Capri #1023 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1230	$1,995	$1.62	1d	1	0.84mi
2731 Via Capri #930 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,995	$1.75	4d	1	0.86mi
2715 Via Capri #732 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,300	$2.02	4d	1	0.87mi
2909 Gulf To Bay Blvd Clearwater, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	931	$1,849	$1.98	3d	9	0.87mi
2705 Via Murano #136 Clearwater, FL	2.0	1.0	980	$2,100	$2.14	17d	1	0.90mi
2705 Via Murano #125 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	890	$1,795	$2.02	24d	1	0.90mi
2705 Via Murano #111 Clearwater, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$2,300	$2.02	17d	1	0.90mi
2724 Via Murano #634 Clearwater, FL	1.0	1.0	890	$1,695	$1.90	24d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 360 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 359 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 358 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 357 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 355 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 351 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 350 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 349 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,900 Active 346 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 345 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 343 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 342 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $3,750
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$900
• After-tax cash flow: $5,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Clearwater

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #988

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearwater, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 170,933
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,311
• Household income: $67,256
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1118.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -350.08%
• Current HPI: 315.4133
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.24%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B