316 Steuben St · Herkimer, NY 13350

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1900 4,400 sqft lot Est $166k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD Home, being sold as-is. Much potential for this 3 bedroom home with nice back yard. Local amenities nearby. LBP. IE-insurable escrow, financing available: cash, conventional, fha 203k.

Key facts

• White kitchen
• Functional layout
• Updated cabinetry

Tags

• WHITE KITCHEN
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• CROWN MOLDINGS
• VINYL REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story property; Existing construction; Aluminum siding
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Concrete driveway; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedroom and living spaces)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 5.5% in Herkimer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D+, crime D.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $120k implies a 497% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.17%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $166,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Steuben St	0.02mi	3/1.0	1,196 (+1%)	9mo	$148,000	$124	91
318 Gray St	0.05mi	3/1.0	1,316 (+11%)	11mo	$145,500	$111	70
609 Malcolm St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,137 (-4%)	7mo	$110,000	$97	68
519 Steuben Rd	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,115 (-6%)	5mo	$159,500	$143	63
150 Folts Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,188 (0%)	10mo	$184,000	$155	62
309 Eureka Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,183 (-0%)	15mo	$105,000	$89	61
317 S Bellinger St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,216 (+2%)	5mo	$171,720	$141	59
349 Gray St	0.09mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,344 (+13%)	13mo	$155,000	$115	58
302 W German St	0.46mi	3/1.5	1,318 (+11%)	2mo	$195,000	$148	57
209 Pullman St	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-8%)	13mo	$152,000	$139	54
115 Hillside Ave	0.41mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-13%)	16mo	$145,000	$140	42
602 Pine Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,014 (-15%)	10mo	$154,900	$153	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.81×
• Total profit: $94,255
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.2%
• Equity multiple: 8.59×
• Total profit: $255,013
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,531/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,127

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Lake St Herkimer, NY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	43d	1	0.42mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 517-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $120,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,531 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,531 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,531
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $3,792
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$910
• After-tax cash flow: $4,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — Herkimer

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6787

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+196.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $120,000 CNYIS
• 2018-01-25 Sold (MLS) $20,100 CNYIS
• 2017-11-17 Listed $20,000 CNYIS
• 2008-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records
• 2001-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2000-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,531 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.