510 Bay Pointe Cir · Flowood, MS 39047

$259,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,169 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1988 9,147 sqft lot Est $304k · 14% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Quality, space, and pride of ownership shine throughout this well-maintained Bay Pointe home! This 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence offers a thoughtful floor plan with a spacious sitting area just off the living room, providing the perfect spot for a home office, reading nook, or second living space. You'll appreciate the abundance of custom built-ins and storage throughout the home. The updated kitchen features granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and plenty of workspace for everyday living and entertaining. Spacious bedrooms, a large formal dining room, and solid construction reflect the care this one-owner home has received over the years. Step outside to find a large storage buil

Key facts

• Golf cart garage
• Custom built-ins
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT-INS
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE STORAGE BUILDING
• GOLF CART GARAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $150 (management included); Community clubhouse; Golf; Hiking/walking trails; Sidewalks; Street lights

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with direct access and concrete flooring
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick exterior; Asphalt shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Porch; Private yard; Outdoor lighting; Wood fencing; Shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric range; Built-in range; Built-in refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Granite counters; Dead bolt locks; Living room wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.3% in Flowood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#10 in MS, #3,075 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Northshore Elementary (math 82% / reading 68%, grade A, #5 of 375 statewide, top 1%, 551 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin Middle School (math 63% / reading 51%, grade B, #13 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,374 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Rankin High School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #34 of 197 statewide, top 17%, 1,898 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 433 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $238,987 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.40%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $303,660
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 Bay Pointe Pl	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,188 (+1%)	5mo	$299,777	$137	85
600 Bay Pointe Ln	0.04mi	4/2.0	2,314 (+7%)	3mo	$328,500	$142	85
744 Bearing Way	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,101 (-3%)	1mo	$418,900	$199	79
2165 W Fairway Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,168 (-0%)	8mo	$299,000	$138	76
102 Honeybee Cv	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,215 (+2%)	13mo	$327,500	$148	63
527 Ridge Cir	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,315 (+7%)	2mo	$319,900	$138	63
2150 W Fairway Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,422 (+12%)	6mo	$255,000	$105	63
3083 E Fairway Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,063 (-5%)	10mo	$349,900	$170	62
141 Vineyard Blvd	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,022 (-7%)	14mo	$279,900	$138	58
105 Pine Ridge Cir	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,220 (+2%)	13mo	$310,000	$140	52
118 Pine Ridge Cir	0.54mi	4/3.5	2,378 (+10%)	2mo	$315,000	$132	51
106 Pine Ridge Cir	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,082 (-4%)	13mo	$309,900	$149	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-21,620
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $6,589
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 433
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $918/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,976

Max offer price $259,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
913 Caitlin Cv Brandon, MS	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,100	$1.28	13d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $259,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $918 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,053 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,135/yr (+$95/mo · 123.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$918
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,294
• − Management: −$2,294
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$403
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$97
• After-tax cash flow: $4,024/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

Livability — Flowood

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #3075

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 123,614 people
• City population: 9,222
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 551.0

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $259,900 MLSU

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $918 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.