Taft Plan · Seguin, TX 78155

$250,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily · 832 Days on market

↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 832 days

🏗️ New construction. The $250,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $298,935.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-669 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (19.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 832 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,876 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 832 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.58%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,935
• List price: $250,490
• Delta: -16.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Lazyglade Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+4%)	4mo	$249,790	$158	80
4029 Lily Glade Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,619 (+7%)	3mo	$239,290	$148	71
316 Lazyglade Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,619 (+7%)	3mo	$249,662	$154	70
308 Pacific Waters	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-2%)	4mo	$210,999	$143	68
316 Pacific Waters	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-2%)	4mo	$214,999	$146	68
4053 Bermuda Ln	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,619 (+7%)	1mo	$247,732	$153	68
332 Pacific Waters	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-2%)	4mo	$260,999	$177	67
344 Pacific Waters	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-2%)	4mo	$205,999	$140	66
240 Pacific Waters	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+10%)	4mo	$220,999	$133	52
304 Pacific Waters	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+10%)	4mo	$211,999	$127	51
328 Pacific Waters	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+10%)	4mo	$273,999	$164	49
340 Pacific Waters	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+10%)	4mo	$266,999	$160	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-92,686
• Equity at exit: $44,572

10-year hold

• IRR: -50.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-142,242
• Equity at exit: $25,846

Cash invested: $83,702 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$374 /mo · $4,484/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-669

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,615

Max offer price $202,194

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,734
• Closing costs: $8,968
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,625	$1.09	1d	1	0.05mi
4153 Bermuda Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1937	$1,995	$1.03	1d	1	0.31mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,781	$1.21	1d	1	0.38mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,853	$1.11	1d	1	0.48mi
3824 High Tide Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,545	$1.05	1d	1	0.60mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,825	$0.97	10d	1	0.62mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,549	$1.05	1d	1	0.65mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	1d	1	0.68mi
2704 La Mundial St Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1910	$1,666	$0.87	1d	1	1.49mi
2720 Coral Vly Seguin, TX	4.0	3.0	1910	$2,195	$1.15	1d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,490 Active 832 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,490 Active 831 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,490 Active 830 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,490 Active 829 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,490 Active 827 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,490 Active 826 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,490 Active 823 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,490 Active 822 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,490 Active 821 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $250,490 Active 818 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,490 Active 817 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,490 Active 816 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,490 Active 815 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,490 Active 814 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    price $250,490 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

16. 2026-01-23
    price $249,490 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

17. 2025-07-02
    price $248,990 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

18. 2025-03-02
    price $247,990 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

19. 2024-12-16
    price $246,990 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

20. 2024-10-10
    price $261,990 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

21. 2024-06-02
    price $261,490 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

22. 2024-05-01
    price $260,990 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

23. 2024-03-28
    price $260,490 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

24. 2024-03-13
    price $259,490 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

25. 2024-03-09
    listed $258,990 Active 386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (386 chars)

    The Taft floor plan in Seguin combines comfort and practicality in a new home design. With an exclusive owner's suite featuring a spa-like bath and two secondary bedrooms, it's perfect for loved ones or hosting guests. The gourmet kitchen and dining room set the stage for memorable gatherings, while the cozy family room offers a relaxing retreat-all in a stunning and affordable home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,745
• − Property taxes: −$4,484
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − Depreciation: −$8,696
• Taxable loss: −$13,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,262
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $250,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $249,490 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $248,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-02 Price Changed $247,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-16 Price Changed $246,990 Zillow
• 2024-10-10 Price Changed $261,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-02 Price Changed $261,490 Zillow
• 2024-05-01 Price Changed $260,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-28 Price Changed $260,490 Zillow
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $259,490 Zillow
• 2024-03-09 Listed $258,990 Zillow