603 Blue Ridge Dr · Shenandoah, TX 77381

$325,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 112 Days on market

Built 1972 9,435 sqft lot $152/sqft · 8% below area Est $354k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.0/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this beautifully maintained home situated in a quiet neighborhood with large lots and easy freeway access. Designed for both comfort and entertaining, this residence offers an open, light-filled layout with four spacious bedrooms and a huge living area featuring a cozy fireplace, built-ins, and a wet bar. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with private access to the backyard oasis. This home is the perfect combination of space, comfort, and location—ready for its next owner to enjoy!

Key facts

• Easy freeway access
• Open layout
• Cozy fireplace

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS
• OPEN LAYOUT
• HUGE LIVING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE
• BUILT-INS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (7.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.6% in Shenandoah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#193 in TX, #4,918 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lamar El (math 49% / reading 54%, grade C-, #808 of 4,322 statewide, top 19%, 718 students, 51% FRL); Knox J H (math 65% / reading 67%, grade A-, #92 of 1,662 statewide, top 6%, 1,448 students, 31% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 30% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $325k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,378 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.82%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,282
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -8.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
619 Shenandoah Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,170 (+1%)	3mo	$360,000	$166	92
28923 Pine Hill Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,105 (-2%)	0mo	$299,010	$142	85
510 Shenandoah Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,078 (-3%)	6mo	$334,900	$161	83
603 Shenandoah Dr	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,970 (-8%)	2mo	$375,000	$190	80
206 Hickory Ridge Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,162 (+1%)	5mo	$389,000	$180	74
28710 Savannah Dr	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,196 (+3%)	6mo	$425,000	$194	69
711 Rosewood Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5	2,402 (+12%)	3mo	$350,000	$146	65
28814 Enchanted Dr	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,324 (+9%)	7mo	$384,000	$165	62
29021 Cherrywood Ln	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,920 (-10%)	1mo	$339,000	$177	60
3 Patina Pines Pl	0.59mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,061 (-4%)	1mo	$485,000	$235	56
119 Bonnie Ridge Cir	0.45mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,323 (+9%)	1mo	$570,000	$245	55
28926 Twisted Oak Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-13%)	9mo	$399,000	$214	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-63,789
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-76,306
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77381

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,584 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,071/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,758

Max offer price $300,651

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $46	-5% $-46	+0% $-138	+5% $-230	+10% $-322
Rent	-10% $-342	-5% $-240	+0% $-138	+5% $-36	+10% $66
Rate	-1.0pp $26	-0.5pp $-55	base $-138	+0.5pp $-222	+1.0pp $-308

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8900 Six Pines Dr Unit 8933 Shenandoah, TX	3.0	2.0	1425	$2,699	$1.89	0d	1	0.38mi
8900 Six Pines Dr Shenandoah, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1010	$3,161	$3.13	12d	24	0.38mi
8900 Research Park Dr Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$2,307	$2.04	0d	32	0.89mi
1950 Hughes Landing Blvd Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1162	$4,613	$3.97	0d	39	0.94mi
8906 Research Park Dr The Woodlands, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,280	$1.50	45d	1	0.94mi
1956 Hughes Landing Blvd The Woodlands, TX	3.0	2.0	1645	$3,865	$2.35	45d	1	0.96mi
18334 W Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,136	$1.32	24d	1	1.14mi
418 S Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1461	$1,876	$1.28	24d	1	1.14mi
446 S Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,451	$1.51	24d	1	1.16mi
18419 Idyllic Aly Conroe, TX	4.0	4.0	2013	$2,271	$1.13	0d	1	1.17mi
18415 Idyllic Aly Conroe, TX	4.0	4.0	2013	$2,066	$1.03	0d	1	1.17mi
305 N Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1487	$2,451	$1.65	0d	1	1.18mi
18403 Idyllic Aly Conroe, TX	4.0	4.0	1619	$1,931	$1.19	45d	1	1.19mi
18624 Whimsic Aly Conroe, TX	4.0	4.0	2013	$2,416	$1.20	45d	1	1.20mi
357 N Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,316	$1.43	0d	1	1.23mi
373 N Centro Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,286	$1.41	24d	1	1.24mi
27226 Pyeatt Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1933	$1,950	$1.01	5d	1	1.43mi
1 Riva Row Spring, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1331	$8,323	$6.25	0d	116	1.43mi

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 112 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $325,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $330,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $330,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $330,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $330,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $330,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $330,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $330,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $330,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $330,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Discover this beautifully maintained home situated in a quiet neighborhood with large lots and easy freeway access. Designed for both comfort and entertaining, this residence offers an open, light-filled layout with four spacious bedrooms and a huge living area featuring a cozy fireplace, built-ins, and a wet bar. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with private access to the backyard oasis. This home is the perfect combination of space, comfort, and location—ready for its next owner to enjoy!

16. 2026-04-17
    price $335,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Discover this beautifully maintained home situated in a quiet neighborhood with large lots and easy freeway access. Designed for both comfort and entertaining, this residence offers an open, light-filled layout with four spacious bedrooms and a huge living area featuring a cozy fireplace, built-ins, and a wet bar. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with private access to the backyard oasis. This home is the perfect combination of space, comfort, and location—ready for its next owner to enjoy!

17. 2026-04-03
    price $340,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Discover this beautifully maintained home situated in a quiet neighborhood with large lots and easy freeway access. Designed for both comfort and entertaining, this residence offers an open, light-filled layout with four spacious bedrooms and a huge living area featuring a cozy fireplace, built-ins, and a wet bar. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with private access to the backyard oasis. This home is the perfect combination of space, comfort, and location—ready for its next owner to enjoy!

18. 2026-03-09
    price $345,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Discover this beautifully maintained home situated in a quiet neighborhood with large lots and easy freeway access. Designed for both comfort and entertaining, this residence offers an open, light-filled layout with four spacious bedrooms and a huge living area featuring a cozy fireplace, built-ins, and a wet bar. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with private access to the backyard oasis. This home is the perfect combination of space, comfort, and location—ready for its next owner to enjoy!

19. 2026-03-02
    listed $250,000 Active 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Discover this beautifully maintained home situated in a quiet neighborhood with large lots and easy freeway access. Designed for both comfort and entertaining, this residence offers an open, light-filled layout with four spacious bedrooms and a huge living area featuring a cozy fireplace, built-ins, and a wet bar. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with private access to the backyard oasis. This home is the perfect combination of space, comfort, and location—ready for its next owner to enjoy!

20. 2026-03-02
    price $350,000 514-char remark

    Show marketing remark (514 chars)

    Discover this beautifully maintained home situated in a quiet neighborhood with large lots and easy freeway access. Designed for both comfort and entertaining, this residence offers an open, light-filled layout with four spacious bedrooms and a huge living area featuring a cozy fireplace, built-ins, and a wet bar. The primary suite is a true retreat, complete with private access to the backyard oasis. This home is the perfect combination of space, comfort, and location—ready for its next owner to enjoy!

21. 2026-02-28
    historical
22. 2026-01-30
    price $350,000
23. 2026-01-08
    price $355,000
24. 2025-10-16
    price $360,000
25. 2025-08-25
    listed $370,000 Active
26. 2025-08-16
    historical $2,085
27. 2025-08-14
    price $2,085
28. 2025-08-07
    price $2,140
29. 2025-08-01
    price $2,195
30. 2025-07-29
    listed $2,250
31. 2021-10-29
    soldstatus
32. 2021-10-28
    soldstatus Sold
33. 2021-10-20
    status Pending
34. 2021-10-05
    status Option Pending
35. 2021-09-30
    listed $299,900 Active
36. 2010-07-02
    soldstatus
37. 2010-06-30
    soldstatus
38. 2010-04-29
    historical
39. 2010-03-22
    listed $160,000
40. 2007-04-05
    soldstatus
41. 1998-06-26
    soldstatus
42. 1997-02-28
    soldstatus $101,080

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,071 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,948 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,876/yr (+$156/mo · 46.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,005
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$4,071
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,480
• − Management: −$2,480
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$7,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,755
• After-tax cash flow: $101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shenandoah

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #193
• US rank: #4918

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 36,139
• Household income: $143,565
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 530.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Asian 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.06%
• Current HPI: 271.7165
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+226.5% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $330,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $335,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $340,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $350,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $355,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $360,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-25 Listed $370,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-16 Rental Removed $2,085 HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $2,085 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $2,140 HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $2,195 HARMLS
• 2025-07-29 Listed for Rent $2,250 HARMLS
• 2021-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-10-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-10-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-09-30 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2010-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-06-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-04-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-03-22 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 2007-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-06-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $101,080 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,071 · -15.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.