2781 Windfall Estates Dr · Fairgarden, TN 37876

$349,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily · 225 Days on market

Built 2018 0.94 ac lot $208/sqft · 29% below area Est $490k · 29% under ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*SELLERS ARE OFFERING $5000 SELLERS CREDIT* Your Smoky Mountain escape that feels like home. This beautifully designed property offers an open-concept layout with vaulted ceilings, large windows, and a seamless flow from the great room to the kitchen featuring stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-style bath and walk-in closet, while additional bedrooms provide space for guests or family. A full unfinished basement offers endless potential for added living space, storage, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful mornings or sunset views from the covered deck surrounded by mature trees. It doesn't end there. Conveniently located just minutes from Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and the Great Smoky Mountains, this home is ideal as a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or short-term rental investment.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Spa-style bath
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• LARGE WINDOWS
• SPA-STYLE BATH
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-788 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (32.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (41.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (41.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.6% vs local median 1.9% in Fairgarden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#381 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sevier County (rural): math 31% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #62 of 139 in TN (top 45%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: New Center Elementary (math 32% / reading 28%, grade F, #415 of 952 statewide, top 44%, 855 students, 0% FRL); Seymour Junior High (math 40% / reading 30%, grade F, #65 of 333 statewide, top 20%, 766 students, 0% FRL); Sevier County High School (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #92 of 332 statewide, top 28%, 1,248 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.6%/yr); 1142 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,594 units permitted in Sevier County in 2024 (456 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $35k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sevier County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,514 (41.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 41% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.68%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 14.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $490,147
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -28.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2521 Black Oak Ridge Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,538 (-8%)	8mo	$455,000	$296	48
951 Hidden Harbor Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-9%)	5mo	$425,000	$277	48
1142 Sanctuary Shrs Way	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,715 (+2%)	16mo	$750,000	$437	48
2559 Fleming Way	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	14mo	$425,000	$271	46
1051 Willard Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-9%)	13mo	$429,000	$279	41
2548 Fleming Way	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-14%)	23mo	$455,000	$314	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $133,876
• Equity at exit: $314,407

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $423,002
• Equity at exit: $678,030

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37876

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 1142
• Price-to-rent: 14.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,055 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,235/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-788

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,053

Max offer price $234,932

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-547	-5% $-668	+0% $-788	+5% $-909	+10% $-1,029
Rent	-10% $-951	-5% $-869	+0% $-788	+5% $-707	+10% $-626
Rate	-1.0pp $-613	-0.5pp $-700	base $-788	+0.5pp $-879	+1.0pp $-971

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1150 Sanctuary Shores Way Sevierville, TN	2.0	2.0	1440	$2,800	$1.94	45d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $349,000 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $349,000 Active 223 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,000 Active 222 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,000 Active 221 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,000 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,000 Active 219 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $349,000 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,000 Pending - Continue to Show 216 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,000 Pending - Continue to Show 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,000 Pending - Continue to Show 213 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,000 Pending - Continue to Show 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,000 Pending - Continue to Show 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $349,000 Pending - Continue to Show 206 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $349,000 Pending - Continue to Show 205 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $349,000 Pending - Continue to Show 204 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $349,000 Pending - Continue to Show 203 DOM
17. 2026-05-10
    historical Pending - Continue to Show 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    *SELLERS ARE OFFERING $5000 SELLERS CREDIT* Your Smoky Mountain escape that feels like home. This beautifully designed property offers an open-concept layout with vaulted ceilings, large windows, and a seamless flow from the great room to the kitchen featuring stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-style bath and walk-in closet, while additional bedrooms provide space for guests or family. A full unfinished basement offers endless potential for added living space, storage, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful mornings or sunset views from the covered deck surrounded by mature trees. It doesn't end there. Conveniently located just minutes from Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and the Great Smoky Mountains, this home is ideal as a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or short-term rental investment.

18. 2026-03-30
    price $349,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    *SELLERS ARE OFFERING $5000 SELLERS CREDIT* Your Smoky Mountain escape that feels like home. This beautifully designed property offers an open-concept layout with vaulted ceilings, large windows, and a seamless flow from the great room to the kitchen featuring stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-style bath and walk-in closet, while additional bedrooms provide space for guests or family. A full unfinished basement offers endless potential for added living space, storage, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful mornings or sunset views from the covered deck surrounded by mature trees. It doesn't end there. Conveniently located just minutes from Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and the Great Smoky Mountains, this home is ideal as a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or short-term rental investment.

19. 2026-01-15
    price $389,900 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    *SELLERS ARE OFFERING $5000 SELLERS CREDIT* Your Smoky Mountain escape that feels like home. This beautifully designed property offers an open-concept layout with vaulted ceilings, large windows, and a seamless flow from the great room to the kitchen featuring stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-style bath and walk-in closet, while additional bedrooms provide space for guests or family. A full unfinished basement offers endless potential for added living space, storage, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful mornings or sunset views from the covered deck surrounded by mature trees. It doesn't end there. Conveniently located just minutes from Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and the Great Smoky Mountains, this home is ideal as a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or short-term rental investment.

20. 2026-01-14
    price $399,900 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    *SELLERS ARE OFFERING $5000 SELLERS CREDIT* Your Smoky Mountain escape that feels like home. This beautifully designed property offers an open-concept layout with vaulted ceilings, large windows, and a seamless flow from the great room to the kitchen featuring stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-style bath and walk-in closet, while additional bedrooms provide space for guests or family. A full unfinished basement offers endless potential for added living space, storage, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful mornings or sunset views from the covered deck surrounded by mature trees. It doesn't end there. Conveniently located just minutes from Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and the Great Smoky Mountains, this home is ideal as a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or short-term rental investment.

21. 2026-01-14
    price $389,900 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    *SELLERS ARE OFFERING $5000 SELLERS CREDIT* Your Smoky Mountain escape that feels like home. This beautifully designed property offers an open-concept layout with vaulted ceilings, large windows, and a seamless flow from the great room to the kitchen featuring stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-style bath and walk-in closet, while additional bedrooms provide space for guests or family. A full unfinished basement offers endless potential for added living space, storage, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful mornings or sunset views from the covered deck surrounded by mature trees. It doesn't end there. Conveniently located just minutes from Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and the Great Smoky Mountains, this home is ideal as a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or short-term rental investment.

22. 2026-01-03
    price $399,900 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    *SELLERS ARE OFFERING $5000 SELLERS CREDIT* Your Smoky Mountain escape that feels like home. This beautifully designed property offers an open-concept layout with vaulted ceilings, large windows, and a seamless flow from the great room to the kitchen featuring stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-style bath and walk-in closet, while additional bedrooms provide space for guests or family. A full unfinished basement offers endless potential for added living space, storage, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful mornings or sunset views from the covered deck surrounded by mature trees. It doesn't end there. Conveniently located just minutes from Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and the Great Smoky Mountains, this home is ideal as a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or short-term rental investment.

23. 2025-11-18
    price $409,000 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    *SELLERS ARE OFFERING $5000 SELLERS CREDIT* Your Smoky Mountain escape that feels like home. This beautifully designed property offers an open-concept layout with vaulted ceilings, large windows, and a seamless flow from the great room to the kitchen featuring stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-style bath and walk-in closet, while additional bedrooms provide space for guests or family. A full unfinished basement offers endless potential for added living space, storage, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful mornings or sunset views from the covered deck surrounded by mature trees. It doesn't end there. Conveniently located just minutes from Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and the Great Smoky Mountains, this home is ideal as a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or short-term rental investment.

24. 2025-11-08
    listed $419,900 Active 829-char remark

    Show marketing remark (829 chars)

    *SELLERS ARE OFFERING $5000 SELLERS CREDIT* Your Smoky Mountain escape that feels like home. This beautifully designed property offers an open-concept layout with vaulted ceilings, large windows, and a seamless flow from the great room to the kitchen featuring stainless appliances. The spacious primary suite includes a spa-style bath and walk-in closet, while additional bedrooms provide space for guests or family. A full unfinished basement offers endless potential for added living space, storage, or future expansion. Enjoy peaceful mornings or sunset views from the covered deck surrounded by mature trees. It doesn't end there. Conveniently located just minutes from Sevierville, Pigeon Forge, and the Great Smoky Mountains, this home is ideal as a full-time residence, vacation retreat, or short-term rental investment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,235
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,973
• − Management: −$1,973
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$15,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,832
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sevier County
• NCES district ID: 4703780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,730
• Composite: 25.12/100
• National rank: #7527
• State rank: #62 of 139 in TN

Livability — Fairgarden

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #381
• US rank: #24205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sevier County · 80,402 people
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• Population (ZIP): 33,561
• Household income: $58,277
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Sevier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,903 people
• By 2030: 113,633 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 123,969 · +14.9%
• By 2050: 132,123 · +22.4%
• By 2075: 148,524 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 153,436 · +42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sevier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.9% · R 80.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -48.1pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+61.7 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+48.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.06%
• Current HPI: 477.19
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.57%
• Metro: Sevierville, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-16.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $349,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $389,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $399,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $389,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $399,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $409,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-11-08 Listed $419,900 Knoxville MLS