1653 N Maple Ave · Decatur, IL 62526

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 978 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1927 5,000 sqft lot Est $59k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice bungalow, craftsman style home. Updates includes new furnace & air in '05, carpet & paint. Large back yard could easily be fenced. Nice fireplace for cozy evenings.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Pex plumbing
• New water heater

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW WATER HEATER
• UPGRADED THERMOSTAT
• PEX PLUMBING
• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $451 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 7.0% in Decatur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,076 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Decatur SD 61 (urban): math 3% / reading 6% proficiency, ranked #605 of 620 in IL (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 63 units permitted in Macon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.2%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macon County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-2.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1927 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1927 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.68%
• DSCR: 2.72
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
780 Cushing St	0.09mi	2/1.0	1,050 (+7%)	5mo	$25,000	$24	80
777 W Harper Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	1,003 (+3%)	2mo	$88,000	$88	77
1429 Walnut Grove Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	884 (-10%)	1mo	$35,000	$40	72
67 Maple Ct	0.50mi	2/1.0	952 (-3%)	1mo	$64,500	$68	72
1356 Huron St	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	936 (-4%)	5mo	$31,500	$34	71
377 Burtschi Ct	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,001 (+2%)	3mo	$25,000	$25	69
1920 Gebhart Ct	0.29mi	2/1.0	873 (-11%)	4mo	$52,000	$60	65
18 Maple Ct	0.49mi	2/1.5	1,040 (+6%)	1mo	$105,000	$101	64
2148 N Graceland Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0	864 (-12%)	3mo	$37,000	$43	61
2050 College St	0.37mi	2/1.0	839 (-14%)	5mo	$36,000	$43	55
1059 Packard St	0.55mi	2/2.0	837 (-14%)	3mo	$76,500	$91	44
947 N Hill Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	832 (-15%)	3mo	$54,500	$66	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.21% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $22,336
• Equity at exit: $9,224

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $58,061
• Equity at exit: $7,423

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62526

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,044 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,083/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $451

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1311 N Walnut Grove Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	781	$1,100	$1.41	44d	1	0.33mi
2148 N Graceland Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,195	$1.38	44d	1	0.38mi
1908 N Union St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	704	$899	$1.28	44d	1	0.45mi
1245 N Union St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	1111	$995	$0.90	44d	1	0.52mi
1045 N Monroe St Decatur, IL	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,000	$0.91	44d	1	0.52mi
1345 N Fairview Ave Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	785	$985	$1.25	44d	1	0.63mi
853 N College St Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	936	$925	$0.99	44d	1	0.71mi
510 E Pierson Ave Decatur, IL	3.0	1.0	895	$1,200	$1.34	44d	1	1.01mi
927 E Harrison Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	720	$675	$0.94	21d	1	1.22mi
1091 N Oakcrest Ave Decatur, IL	2.0	1.0	672	$950	$1.41	44d	1	1.23mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2025-11-05
   soldstatus $50,000
2. 2025-10-21
   status Pending
3. 2025-09-18
   price $50,000
4. 2025-08-20
   price $54,000
5. 2025-07-10
   status Active
6. 2025-06-25
   status Pending
7. 2025-06-04
   historical Active Under Contract
8. 2025-05-20
   price $55,000
9. 2025-04-21
   listed $59,900 Active
10. 2007-04-10
    soldstatus $36,000
11. 2007-04-05
    soldstatus $36,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Very nice bungalow, craftsman style home. Updates includes new furnace & air in '05, carpet & paint. Large back yard could easily be fenced. Nice fireplace for cozy evenings.

12. 2006-11-01
    listed $38,500 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Very nice bungalow, craftsman style home. Updates includes new furnace & air in '05, carpet & paint. Large back yard could easily be fenced. Nice fireplace for cozy evenings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,083 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,109 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$26/yr (+$2/mo · 2.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$1,083
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,002
• − Management: −$1,002
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $4,933
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,184
• After-tax cash flow: $4,232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Decatur SD 61
• NCES district ID: 1711850
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,864
• Composite: 3.99/100
• National rank: #10059
• State rank: #605 of 620 in IL

Livability — Decatur

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1076
• US rank: #20533

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Decatur, IL
• County: Macon County · 78,333 people
• City population: 78,333
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,483
• Household income: $49,062
• Rent vs Own: 39.2% rent · 60.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1041.0

Population outlook (Macon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,568 people
• By 2030: 94,973 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 85,250 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 75,920 · -23.8%
• By 2075: 55,962 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 36,468 · -63.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 22% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macon

• 2024 margin: R (+18.9) · D 39.8% · R 58.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: 1.1pp · 2024: -18.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.9 2020: R+17.7 2016: R+18.1 2012: R+5.2 2008: D+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.21%
• Current HPI: 182.871
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Decatur, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+29.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-21 Pending — CIBR
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $50,000 CIBR
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $54,000 CIBR
• 2025-07-10 Relisted — CIBR
• 2025-06-25 Pending — CIBR
• 2025-06-04 Contingent — CIBR
• 2025-05-20 Price Changed $55,000 CIBR
• 2025-04-21 Listed $59,900 CIBR
• 2007-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-05 Sold (MLS) $36,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-01 Listed $38,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,083 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.