8442 Breeze Hill Dr · Indian Lake Estates, FL 33898

$154,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,002 sqft · Manufactured public records · 256 Days on market

Built 1993 5,663 sqft lot $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW PRICE!! YOU OWN THE LAND!! BRAND NEW ROOF AND WASHING MACHINE. THE WATER HEATER IS JUST OVER A YEAR OLD. Spacious open floor plan and sitting on a large pond. YOU CAN FISH AND KAYAK FROM YOUR OWN BACK YARD! This home has 2-bedrooms, 2-bathrooms, a Florida Room on the back overlooking the pond, with no rear neighbors. Inside laundry, and the kitchen is huge with tons of cabinets and counter space. The community sits on the largest lake in Polk County. Great for water sports and fishing. Record bass have been caught on this lake. Bass tournaments are held here throughout the year. Great lake for Crappie fishing. This is an active 55+ community with a heated pool, fishing pier, boat ramp

Key facts

• Fishing pier
• Brand new roof
• Water heater

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF
• WATER HEATER
• FLORIDA ROOM
• LARGE POND
• FISHING PIER
• BOAT RAMP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment installed
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $200; roughly $16.67/month); Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, shuffleboard court, storage; Senior community; pets allowed; golf carts OK

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected; Sewer connected; Community is a lakefront community
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a manufactured home (double wide)
• Exterior features: Enclosed, screened rear porch; Patio / porch enclosed and screened; Rain gutters; Storage; Pond frontage with fishing pier

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (Electric, Heat Pump); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floorplan with living/dining room combo; Window treatments; Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (2.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 500 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $154k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.01%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-11,245
• Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,755
• Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33898

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 500
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $930/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,222

Max offer price $154,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,000 Active 256 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,000 Active 255 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,000 Active 254 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,000 Active 253 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,000 Active 251 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $154,000 Active 248 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,000 Active 247 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,000 Active 246 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,000 Active 245 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $154,000 Active 242 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,000 Active 240 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,000 Active 239 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 238 DOM
14. 2026-02-27
    price $154,000
15. 2025-12-02
    price $154,900
16. 2025-11-07
    status Active
17. 2025-11-06
    historical
18. 2025-11-02
    price $155,000
19. 2025-09-24
    listed $159,900 Active
20. 2025-09-18
    historical
21. 2025-08-16
    listed $159,900 Active
22. 2024-05-25
    historical
23. 2024-04-12
    listed $159,999 Active
24. 2024-04-11
    historical
25. 2024-01-18
    price $167,000
26. 2023-11-12
    listed $168,900 Active
27. 2021-08-25
    soldstatus $78,900
28. 2020-05-21
    soldstatus $78,900
29. 2006-09-21
    listed $92,000
30. 1994-05-16
    soldstatus $48,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $930 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,278 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$348/yr (+$29/mo · 37.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$930
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,435
• − Management: −$1,435
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable income: $72
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17
• After-tax cash flow: $2,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Indian Lake Estates

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 30,351
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,527
• Household income: $57,224
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 148.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 10% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.62%
• Current HPI: 340.6056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+216.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $154,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $154,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-24 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-16 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-25 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-12 Listed $159,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-18 Price Changed $167,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-12 Listed $168,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $78,900 Public Records
• 2020-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $78,900 Public Records
• 2006-09-21 Listed $92,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $48,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $930 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.