20930 E Marble Canyon Way · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1987 6,970 sqft lot Est $228k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is the definition of AFFORDABLE HOUSING & it is a 1987 Double Wide on .16 Acres with a 1 Car Carport & it has a durable white STEEL ROOF. Home features 1248 Sq Ft, 3Bedrooms, 2Bathrooms, Open/Split Floor Plan, GREAT ROOM Concept, Vaulted Ceilings, Ceiling Fans, Luxury Vinyl Wood Plank & New Carpet in Bedrooms, New 2 tone Interior Paint, & Horizontal Blinds. Kitchen has Oak Cabinetry, attractive Laminate Countertops, Electric Range, Stainless Steel Fridge, Built-In Pantry, & RO Filter. Master is Spacious with New Carpet, Full Tub/Shower with Tiled Surround, Tile Floor, Single Sink, & Walk-In Closet. Guest Bath has Tub/Shower with Tile Surround, Bedroom #2 has Walk-In Closet, & 3rd Bedroom is being used as Den. Additional Features include Laundry Room w/Washer & Dryer Conveying, Fenced Perimeter, Dog Run, New Exterior Paint, Stem Wall Foundation, 8'x10' Storage shed on slab, Covered Front Patio w/Handicap Ramp, Covered Back Patio, & the 42' Visio Television conveys.

Key facts

• Fenced perimeter
• Oak cabinetry
• Built-in pantry

Tags

• DURABLE WHITE STEEL ROOF
• OAK CABINETRY
• BUILT-IN PANTRY
• FENCED PERIMETER
• DOG RUN
• COVERED FRONT PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: Other
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 1 covered parking space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Private water company; Septic (connected)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction, painted; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front and back; County-maintained road; Mountain view

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Laminate countertops
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 3/4 bath in primary bedroom; Accessible approach with ramp; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-279 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $265k implies a 77% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,525 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.51%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,384
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20850 E Cedar Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (-5%)	3mo	$74,000	$63	82
20809 E Antelope Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+8%)	3mo	$239,900	$178	79
20907 E Marble Canyon Way	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (+3%)	13mo	$235,000	$183	76
20721 E Mingus Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	7mo	$190,000	$165	62
20921 E Skyview Ln	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (+13%)	3mo	$340,000	$240	60
16029 S Apache Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,061 (-15%)	11mo	$230,000	$217	54
20576 E Quail Run Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,380 (+11%)	16mo	$230,500	$167	46
20524 E Concho Ln	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,119 (-10%)	5mo	$199,000	$178	44
20935 E Bright Sun (1.03 Acres) Way	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,173 (-6%)	16mo	$306,000	$261	43
20605 E Conestoga Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+14%)	6mo	$260,000	$183	42
16057 S Indian Bend Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,081 (-13%)	15mo	$252,500	$234	39
20525 E Conestoga Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	10mo	$265,000	$245	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $126,598
• Equity at exit: $238,733

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $386,834
• Equity at exit: $514,837

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$331 /mo · $3,975/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $224,656

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $265,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $265,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1020 chars)

    Here is the definition of AFFORDABLE HOUSING & it is a 1987 Double Wide on .16 Acres with a 1 Car Carport & it has a durable white STEEL ROOF. Home features 1248 Sq Ft, 3Bedrooms, 2Bathrooms, Open/Split Floor Plan, GREAT ROOM Concept, Vaulted Ceilings, Ceiling Fans, Luxury Vinyl Wood Plank & New Carpet in Bedrooms, New 2 tone Interior Paint, & Horizontal Blinds. Kitchen has Oak Cabinetry, attractive Laminate Countertops, Electric Range, Stainless Steel Fridge, Built-In Pantry, & RO Filter. Master is Spacious with New Carpet, Full Tub/Shower with Tiled Surround, Tile Floor, Single Sink, & Walk-In Closet. Guest Bath has Tub/Shower with Tile Surround, Bedroom #2 has Walk-In Closet, & 3rd Bedroom is being used as Den. Additional Features include Laundry Room w/Washer & Dryer Conveying, Fenced Perimeter, Dog Run, New Exterior Paint, Stem Wall Foundation, 8'x10' Storage shed on slab, Covered Front Patio w/Handicap Ramp, Covered Back Patio, & the 42' Visio Television conveys.

17. 2026-05-26
    listed $265,000 Active 1020-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1020 chars)

    Here is the definition of AFFORDABLE HOUSING & it is a 1987 Double Wide on .16 Acres with a 1 Car Carport & it has a durable white STEEL ROOF. Home features 1248 Sq Ft, 3Bedrooms, 2Bathrooms, Open/Split Floor Plan, GREAT ROOM Concept, Vaulted Ceilings, Ceiling Fans, Luxury Vinyl Wood Plank & New Carpet in Bedrooms, New 2 tone Interior Paint, & Horizontal Blinds. Kitchen has Oak Cabinetry, attractive Laminate Countertops, Electric Range, Stainless Steel Fridge, Built-In Pantry, & RO Filter. Master is Spacious with New Carpet, Full Tub/Shower with Tiled Surround, Tile Floor, Single Sink, & Walk-In Closet. Guest Bath has Tub/Shower with Tile Surround, Bedroom #2 has Walk-In Closet, & 3rd Bedroom is being used as Den. Additional Features include Laundry Room w/Washer & Dryer Conveying, Fenced Perimeter, Dog Run, New Exterior Paint, Stem Wall Foundation, 8'x10' Storage shed on slab, Covered Front Patio w/Handicap Ramp, Covered Back Patio, & the 42' Visio Television conveys.

18. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $150,000 Closed 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath home with formal dining area, covered front porch. 1 car carport. Fenced, paved streets and some views. All electric home. New AC, New 40 year metal roof and New plumbing in 2020.

19. 2022-04-26
    soldstatus $150,000

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath home with formal dining area, covered front porch. 1 car carport. Fenced, paved streets and some views. All electric home. New AC, New 40 year metal roof and New plumbing in 2020.

20. 2022-04-03
    status Pending 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath home with formal dining area, covered front porch. 1 car carport. Fenced, paved streets and some views. All electric home. New AC, New 40 year metal roof and New plumbing in 2020.

21. 2021-11-17
    listed $165,000 Active 197-char remark

    Show marketing remark (197 chars)

    3 bedroom, 2 bath home with formal dining area, covered front porch. 1 car carport. Fenced, paved streets and some views. All electric home. New AC, New 40 year metal roof and New plumbing in 2020.

22. 2008-10-30
    soldstatus $23,000
23. 2008-10-30
    soldstatus $23,000
24. 2007-08-23
    soldstatus $39,100
25. 1996-07-24
    soldstatus $16,900
26. 1988-03-01
    soldstatus $3,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,583
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$3,975
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,887
• − Management: −$1,887
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$8,043
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,930
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,415/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+7471.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $265,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listed $265,000 ARMLS
• 2022-04-26 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2022-04-26 Sold (MLS) $150,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-03 Pending — PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-17 Listed $165,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-30 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-30 Sold (MLS) $23,000 PAARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $39,100 Public Records
• 1996-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $16,900 Public Records
• 1988-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $3,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $213 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.