3440 Fulton Ave #25 · Arden-Arcade, CA 95821

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1978 $83/sqft · 95% above area Est $47k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move in Ready! Great price! Double Wide, newer windows, painted exterior and interior, kitchen cabinets bright white, gas stove, ALL AGES Park! 2 parking spaces, refrigerator, washer and dryer included! Swimming pool available. Nice clean park! Dogs/cats allowed!

Key facts

• Washer and dryer
• Parking spaces
• Swimming pool

Tags

• UPDATED UNIT
• PARKING SPACES
• REFRIGERATOR
• WASHER AND DRYER
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $820 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.0% vs local median 2.3% in Arden-Arcade — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 94 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.83% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.29%
• DSCR: 4.13
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $47,000
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: 6.38%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.86×
• Total profit: $39,971
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.14×
• Total profit: $85,987
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95821

• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 94
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,417 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $196/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $820

Break-even live

Break-even rent $379

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 37%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2929 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	660	$1,435	$2.17	43d	1	0.22mi
2647 Pope Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,895	$3.45	23d	1	0.25mi
2511 Edison Ave Unit 2511-26 D Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	535	$1,300	$2.43	20d	1	0.27mi
2511 Edison Ave Unit 2511-52 D Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	525	$1,300	$2.48	23d	1	0.27mi
2512 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	685	$1,495	$2.18	4d	5	0.33mi
2501 Edison Ave Unit 2501-34 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	525	$1,300	$2.48	23d	1	0.33mi
2400 Edison Ave Unit 3250 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	523	$1,295	$2.48	16d	1	0.46mi
2400 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	523	$1,195	$2.28	43d	1	0.46mi
3142 Edison Ave Unit 14 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,275	$1.96	23d	1	0.49mi
2340 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	623	$1,300	$2.09	23d	1	0.55mi
2315 Edison Ave #3 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,225	$2.04	3d	1	0.66mi
2909 Marconi Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,275	$2.32	21d	1	0.69mi
2318 Church Ave Unit 8 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	725	$1,150	$1.59	14d	1	0.73mi
2904 Marconi Ave Unit 2900-12 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,095	$1.99	43d	1	0.86mi
2904 Marconi Ave Unit 2904-10 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	675	$1,345	$1.99	20d	1	0.86mi
2904 Marconi Ave Unit 2900-17 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,045	$1.90	23d	1	0.86mi
2904 Marconi Ave Unit 2900-10 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,045	$1.90	14d	1	0.86mi
3101 Truax Ct Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	667	$1,495	$2.24	7d	4	0.88mi
2228 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	706	$1,914	$2.71	1d	6	0.90mi
3525 Whitney Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	640	$1,200	$1.88	4d	1	0.92mi
3536 Watt Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	730	$1,525	$2.09	2d	6	0.94mi
3120 Howe Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	725	$1,350	$1.86	23d	1	0.96mi
2121 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	580	$1,300	$2.24	43d	1	1.03mi
2633 Fulton Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	652	$1,447	$2.22	43d	1	1.04mi
3821 Annadale Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	660	$1,330	$2.02	21d	1	1.08mi
3831 Annadale Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	786	$1,700	$2.16	3d	4	1.09mi
3636 Edison Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	607	$1,710	$2.81	2d	9	1.10mi
2932 Watt Ave Unit E-22 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	575	$1,195	$2.08	21d	1	1.11mi
2932 Watt Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	575	$1,095	$1.90	16d	1	1.11mi
2740 Elvyra Way Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	625	$1,350	$2.16	4d	1	1.12mi
2930 Watt Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,200	$2.40	14d	2	1.13mi
3544 Auburn Blvd Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,495	$1.99	19d	1	1.15mi
3859 Annadale Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,200	$2.00	43d	1	1.20mi
3535 Marconi Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,895	$2.01	43d	1	1.20mi
2850 Darwin St Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	530	$1,300	$2.45	7d	4	1.24mi
2823 El Camino Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	773	$1,595	$2.06	4d	4	1.24mi
2125 North Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,095	$1.68	7d	1	1.24mi
2125 North Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,150	$1.77	20d	1	1.24mi
3100 Jersey Way Unit 18 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,245	$2.08	23d	1	1.28mi
3100 Jersey Way Unit 8 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,245	$2.08	14d	1	1.28mi

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $196 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $380 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$184/yr (+$15/mo · 94.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 33 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,004
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$196
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,360
• − Management: −$1,360
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $9,583
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,300
• After-tax cash flow: $7,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Arden-Arcade

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arden-Arcade, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 100,586
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,064
• Household income: $64,963
• Rent vs Own: 51.5% rent · 48.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2609.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 20% Asian 13% Two or more races 12% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 9% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -485.09%
• Current HPI: 306.3799
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $196 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.