467 Goethe St · Cumberland, MD 21502

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 202 Days on market

Built 1875 1,881 sqft lot $60/sqft · 75% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home perfectly situated just minutes from the newly revitalized downtown. Enjoy the convenience of shops, restaurants, parks, and community events right at your doorstep! Inside, the home features an updated kitchen with brand-new appliances, plumbing and a new furnace, offering peace of mind and improved energy efficiency. The layout provides a comfortable flow with bright living spaces, ample bedroom sizes, and a cozy atmosphere throughout.

Key facts

• New furnace
• Bright living spaces
• Brand-new appliances

Tags

• BRAND-NEW APPLIANCES
• NEW FURNACE
• BRIGHT LIVING SPACES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $423 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 6.7% in Cumberland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#64 in MD, #2,385 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Allegany County Public Schools (other): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #18 of 24 in MD (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.9%/yr); 235 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 24 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Allegany County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $13k; list at $85k implies a 544% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1875 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1875 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.15%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,555
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: 85.36%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
468 Baltimore Ave	0.02mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-8%)	5mo	$30,000	$23	82
506 Linden St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,440 (+2%)	1mo	$87,500	$61	81
348 Baltimore Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (+2%)	5mo	$29,000	$20	79
406 Davidson St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+3%)	4mo	$165,000	$114	78
533 Fort Ave	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,368 (-3%)	4mo	$120,000	$88	69
802 Bedford St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,378 (-2%)	11mo	$40,000	$29	67
312 N Waverly Ter	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,600 (+14%)	7mo	$26,000	$16	61
438 Chestnut St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+1%)	1mo	$130,000	$92	60
712 Lincoln St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,532 (+9%)	10mo	$165,000	$108	57
408 Broadway St	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,352 (-4%)	10mo	$85,000	$63	56
332 Baltimore Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,590 (+13%)	11mo	$9,500	$6	55
449 Pine Ave	0.42mi	3/1.5	1,602 (+14%)	11mo	$90,000	$56	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $19,739
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.43×
• Total profit: $81,687
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21502

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.9%
• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,238 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $212/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $423

Break-even live

Break-even rent $702

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
516 Bedford St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,195	$0.80	44d	1	0.38mi
118 Independence St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,250	$0.99	44d	1	0.48mi
201 Spring St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.0	1332	$950	$0.71	44d	1	0.74mi
423 Furnace St Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,250	$0.87	44d	1	0.80mi
418 N Mechanic St Unit 1C Cumberland, MD	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,295	$0.86	44d	1	0.84mi
418 N Mechanic St Unit 1B Cumberland, MD	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	44d	1	0.84mi
529 N Centre St Unit Rear Cumberland, MD	2.0	1.0	982	$850	$0.87	44d	1	0.93mi
131 Grand Ave Cumberland, MD	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,300	$0.90	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $85,000 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 201 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 200 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 199 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 198 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $90,000 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 192 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $90,000 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $90,000 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $90,000 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $90,000 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $90,000 Active 182 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    status Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home perfectly situated just minutes from the newly revitalized downtown. Enjoy the convenience of shops, restaurants, parks, and community events right at your doorstep! Inside, the home features an updated kitchen with brand-new appliances, plumbing and a new furnace, offering peace of mind and improved energy efficiency. The layout provides a comfortable flow with bright living spaces, ample bedroom sizes, and a cozy atmosphere throughout.

16. 2026-04-04
    status Pending 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home perfectly situated just minutes from the newly revitalized downtown. Enjoy the convenience of shops, restaurants, parks, and community events right at your doorstep! Inside, the home features an updated kitchen with brand-new appliances, plumbing and a new furnace, offering peace of mind and improved energy efficiency. The layout provides a comfortable flow with bright living spaces, ample bedroom sizes, and a cozy atmosphere throughout.

17. 2026-03-02
    price $96,000 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home perfectly situated just minutes from the newly revitalized downtown. Enjoy the convenience of shops, restaurants, parks, and community events right at your doorstep! Inside, the home features an updated kitchen with brand-new appliances, plumbing and a new furnace, offering peace of mind and improved energy efficiency. The layout provides a comfortable flow with bright living spaces, ample bedroom sizes, and a cozy atmosphere throughout.

18. 2025-11-20
    listed $97,000 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    Welcome to this 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom home perfectly situated just minutes from the newly revitalized downtown. Enjoy the convenience of shops, restaurants, parks, and community events right at your doorstep! Inside, the home features an updated kitchen with brand-new appliances, plumbing and a new furnace, offering peace of mind and improved energy efficiency. The layout provides a comfortable flow with bright living spaces, ample bedroom sizes, and a cozy atmosphere throughout.

19. 2024-08-16
    soldstatus $13,200 Closed 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    ONLINE AUCTION: Bidding begins 6/27/2024 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 7/1/2024 @ 11:35 AM. List Price is Suggested Opening Bid. Deposit: $5,000. 2 story detached home located in Cumberland, MD. JUST MINUTES to the many attractions of the Downtown Cumberland area. Easy access to major traffic artery US-68 (National Freeway).

20. 2024-07-01
    status Pending 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    ONLINE AUCTION: Bidding begins 6/27/2024 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 7/1/2024 @ 11:35 AM. List Price is Suggested Opening Bid. Deposit: $5,000. 2 story detached home located in Cumberland, MD. JUST MINUTES to the many attractions of the Downtown Cumberland area. Easy access to major traffic artery US-68 (National Freeway).

21. 2024-06-12
    listed $10,000 Active 321-char remark

    Show marketing remark (321 chars)

    ONLINE AUCTION: Bidding begins 6/27/2024 @ 10:00 AM. Bidding ends 7/1/2024 @ 11:35 AM. List Price is Suggested Opening Bid. Deposit: $5,000. 2 story detached home located in Cumberland, MD. JUST MINUTES to the many attractions of the Downtown Cumberland area. Easy access to major traffic artery US-68 (National Freeway).

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $212 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: +$357/yr (+$30/mo · 168.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$212
• − Insurance: −$1,092
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,188
• − Management: −$1,188
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $3,940
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$945
• After-tax cash flow: $4,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Allegany County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400030
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $39,760
• Composite: 18.95/100
• National rank: #8854
• State rank: #18 of 24 in MD

Livability — Cumberland

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #64
• US rank: #2385

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cumberland, MD
• County: Allegany County · 41,015 people
• City population: 41,015
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 41,015
• Household income: $60,725
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Allegany County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,778 people
• By 2030: 66,766 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 62,784 · -8.7%
• By 2050: 59,179 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 50,732 · -26.2%
• By 2100: 40,837 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 9% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegany

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 28.9% · R 69.2% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -25.9pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+48.0 2012: R+32.9 2008: R+25.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.33%
• Current HPI: 258.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.88%
• Metro: Cumberland, MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+860.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $96,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $97,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-08-16 Sold (MLS) $13,200 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-07-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-12 Listed $10,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $212 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.