45102 Balch Park Rd · Three Rivers, CA 93265

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1992 3.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fixer-Upper with Unlimited Potential! This diamond in the rough is ready for its transformation! Whether you're looking to move in and make it your dream home, or flip it for profit, this property has huge potential with the right vision and a little love.

Key facts

• 3 acre lot
• Built 1992
• Listed 30 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 0.6% in Three Rivers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#708 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, employment A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Springville Union Elementary (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #476 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Springville Elementary (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #621 of 1,571 statewide, top 42%, 329 students, 60% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 1,447 units permitted in Tulare County in 2024 (307 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tulare County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $157k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,179 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.98%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $129,046
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.95×
• Total profit: $374,606
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93265

• Home prices YoY: 9.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,822 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $741/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,690

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $168	+0% $104	+5% $40	+10% $-24
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $32	+0% $104	+5% $176	+10% $248
Rate	-1.0pp $217	-0.5pp $161	base $104	+0.5pp $46	+1.0pp $-14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-14
   soldstatus $157,000
2. 2025-03-21
   status Pending
3. 2025-02-18
   listed $225,000 Active
4. 2004-04-30
   soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $741 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$969/yr (+$81/mo · 130.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥89°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 62 unhealthy d/yr today · 70 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,861
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$741
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,749
• − Management: −$1,749
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,651
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$636
• After-tax cash flow: $1,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637770
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $53,881
• Composite: 43.58/100
• National rank: #6431
• State rank: #476 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Three Rivers

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #708
• US rank: #21274

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 2,307
• Population (ZIP): 3,532

Population outlook (Tulare County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,681 people
• By 2030: 496,241 · +2.4%
• By 2040: 518,507 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 534,920 · +10.4%
• By 2075: 548,417 · +13.2%
• By 2100: 513,085 · +5.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Asian 6% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala, South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tulare

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 38.5% · R 59.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.4pp toward R · 2008: -15.3pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+7.8 2016: R+12.1 2012: R+17.8 2008: R+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.24%
• Current HPI: 361.9818
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+25.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $157,000 Public Records
• 2025-03-21 Pending — TCMLS
• 2025-02-18 Listed $225,000 TCMLS
• 2004-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $741 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.