383 Sugar Grove Ln · Brownsville, TX 78520

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,326 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1981 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Recently remodeled 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offering 1,788 sq. ft. of living space. Features include granite countertops, updated finishes, and a spacious bonus room with central A/C, perfect for a home office, game room, second living area, or guest space. Conveniently located off Laredo Road in the heart of Brownsville, with easy access to shopping, dining, schools, medical facilities, and major thoroughfares. Homes in this area and price range are becoming increasingly difficult to find. Move in ready and waiting for its new owners.

Key facts

• Updated finishes
• Spacious bonus room
• Central a/c

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• UPDATED FINISHES
• SPACIOUS BONUS ROOM
• CENTRAL A/C

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Sugar Tree subdivision; Directions: GPS works

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-490/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (12.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in Brownsville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#62 in TX, #2,311 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D, crime D-, employment F.
• Brownsville ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #710 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Benavides El (math 23% / reading 39%, grade F, #2,429 of 4,322 statewide, top 57%, 882 students, 83% FRL); Manzano Middle (math 30% / reading 38%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 905 students, 82% FRL); Pace Early College H S (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 1,788 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools at 86% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.4%/yr); 346 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($50k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,804 (12.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-26,697
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $17,847
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78520

• Home prices YoY: -19.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 346
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,838 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$310 /mo · $3,718/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,890

Max offer price $201,785

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2393 McAllen Rd Unit D1-7 Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,400	$1.35	21d	1	0.22mi
424 Gilson Rd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.30mi
184 Stars Ave Unit 7 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,900	$1.31	21d	1	0.35mi
142 Country Club Rd Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,800	$1.23	44d	1	0.39mi
322 McFadden Dr Unit 14 Brownsville, TX	3.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	44d	1	0.39mi
714 Continental Dr #3 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1482	$2,400	$1.62	44d	1	0.62mi
715 Continental Dr #3 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1664	$2,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.65mi
10 Country Club Rd Unit A Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	44d	1	0.70mi
11 Country Club Rd Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,600	$1.33	21d	1	0.71mi
42 Fairway Dr Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	21d	1	0.75mi
2034 Toluca Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$2,000	$1.20	21d	1	0.75mi
35 La Paz Ct Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1660	$1,900	$1.14	14d	1	0.88mi
15 Valles Ct Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1715	$2,350	$1.37	14d	1	0.89mi
2901 Central Blvd Unit 202 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,400	$1.19	21d	1	0.93mi
2100 W San Marcelo Blvd Brownsville, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1069	$1,500	$1.40	44d	2	0.95mi
2100 W San Marcelo Blvd Apt 185 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	21d	1	0.97mi
375 Media Luna Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	940	$1,404	$1.49	14d	2	0.98mi
3055 El Paso Rd Unit H-1 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,050	$1.17	44d	1	1.03mi
3500 Old Alice Rd Unit 1100 H Brownsville, TX	2.0	1.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	1.08mi
3536 Hidalgo Cir Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	994	$1,700	$1.71	44d	1	1.08mi
3528 Hidalgo Cir Unit C Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1061	$1,600	$1.51	21d	1	1.08mi
3513 Hidalgo Cir Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.5	1289	$1,750	$1.36	14d	1	1.10mi
3525 Hidalgo Cir Unit 3 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	995	$1,650	$1.66	21d	1	1.12mi
3008 Chadwick Pl Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1380	$2,000	$1.45	14d	1	1.16mi
1150 Quail Hollow Dr Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.5	1333	$1,950	$1.46	21d	1	1.17mi
15 Sunnyside Ln Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1436	$2,000	$1.39	14d	1	1.18mi
501 Geraldine Ln Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1615	$1,900	$1.18	21d	1	1.20mi
3 Conquistador Dr Lot 3 Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	14d	1	1.25mi
1935 Athens St Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1196	$2,200	$1.84	14d	1	1.26mi
1935 Athens St Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1196	$2,200	$1.84	21d	1	1.26mi
2246 Athens St Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	21d	1	1.30mi
2425 Barnard Rd Brownsville, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,165	$1.31	14d	12	1.38mi
2425 Barnard Rd Unit A-13 Brownsville, TX	2.0	2.0	1137	$1,250	$1.10	44d	1	1.38mi
2425 Barnard Rd Unit ujnit 1-A Brownsville, TX	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,600	$1.23	44d	1	1.38mi
2186 Athens St Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1196	$1,750	$1.46	44d	1	1.40mi
1683 Artemisa Ave Brownsville, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$1,950	$1.14	21d	1	1.48mi
2733 Naples St Brownsville, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,400	$1.34	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $209,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 4 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 539-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $229,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,718 · $310/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,825 · $319/mo
• Expected delta: +$107/yr (+$9/mo · 2.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,718
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,765
• − Management: −$1,765
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$4,022
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$965
• After-tax cash flow: $475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811680
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $30,490
• Composite: 21.8/100
• National rank: #8249
• State rank: #710 of 826 in TX

Livability — Brownsville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #62
• US rank: #2311

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brownsville, TX
• County: Cameron County · 310,734 people
• City population: 212,132
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• Population (ZIP): 64,740
• Household income: $50,116
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1800.0

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 441,603 people
• By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
• By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
• By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 93% Two or more races 44% White 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 88%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.91%
• Current HPI: 214.4335
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.41%
• Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $229,000 RGVMLS
• 2020-08-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-05-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,718 · -8.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.