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12420 Crystal Jade Way
C+ Composite 60.49
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +17.9/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • 1% rule +8.5/10.0
  • DSCR +5.6/10.0
  • Schools +5.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Livability +2.5/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.3/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$195,000

12420 Crystal Jade Way · Parrish, FL 34219
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · Townhouse public records · 137 Days on market
Built 2023 Good condition 2,161 sqft lot Garage $111/sqft · 33% below area Est $293k · 33% under $366/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 36% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. You will love living at the Abacos. With 1,747 square feet, three bedrooms and two bathrooms, this two-story townhome provides plenty of space for the entire family. This home is perfect for anyone who loves to cook, with a huge kitchen and pantry, along with a large dining room for entertaining. A covered patio offers an outdoor view with shade from the Florida sun. Upstairs there is a large master suite with walk-in closet and his and her sinks, as well as two additional bedrooms.

Key facts

  • Water views
  • Pickleball courts
  • Resort style pool

Tags

PROSPERITY LAKES COMMUNITYRESORT STYLE POOLPICKLEBALL COURTSTENNIS COURTSWATER VIEWSCOMMUNITY PIER

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
  • Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.7% in Parrish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
  • Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2985 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.35%
Cap rate
7.30%
Cash-on-cash
3.58%
DSCR
1.16
GRM
6.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$293,186
List price
$195,000
Delta
-33.49%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
13445 Noble Garnet Ln 0.20mi 3/2.5 1,747 (-1%) 3mo $231,995 $133 87
12680 Peaceful Peridot Way 0.18mi 3/3.0 1,747 (-1%) 4mo $238,000 $136 85
12676 Peaceful Peridot Way 0.18mi 3/2.5 1,714 (-3%) 6mo $235,000 $137 83
12628 Peaceful Peridot Way Unit na 0.13mi 3/2.0 1,747 (-1%) 11mo $241,500 $138 82
13526 Noble Garnet Ln 0.20mi 3/2.5 1,993 (+13%) 1mo $248,740 $125 68
13575 White Gold Run 0.09mi 3/2.5 2,002 (+14%) 10mo $253,250 $126 64
13204 Stable Pl 0.64mi 3/2.5 1,704 (-3%) 10mo $299,999 $176 57
13134 Stable Pl 0.62mi 3/2.5 1,558 (-12%) 0mo $284,999 $183 52
13224 Stable Pl 0.65mi 3/2.5 1,558 (-12%) 2mo $279,999 $180 49
13223 Stable Pl 0.63mi 3/2.5 1,558 (-12%) 3mo $274,999 $177 49
13154 Stable Pl 0.63mi 3/2.5 1,558 (-12%) 6mo $289,999 $186 47
13228 Stable Pl 0.66mi 3/2.5 1,558 (-12%) 5mo $299,000 $192 46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-15.2%
Equity multiple
0.48×
Total profit
$-28,545
Equity at exit
$29,075
10-year hold
IRR
-16.0%
Equity multiple
0.27×
Total profit
$-39,715
Equity at exit
$16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
43 active · 8 under contract
Months of supply
18.4 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$245,240 ($125/sqft)
Median days on market
16 d
This list price
lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking
+33.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

Home prices YoY
-23.7%
Rents YoY
-0.9%
Active inventory
2985
Price-to-rent
6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,631 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,023
Tax from tax record
$446 /mo · $5,348/yr
Insurance
$81
HOA
$366
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$552
Net cashflow
$163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,425
Max offer price $195,000
Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $273 -5% $218 +0% $163 +5% $108 +10% $53
Rent -10% $-45 -5% $59 +0% $163 +5% $267 +10% $371
Rate -1.0pp $261 -0.5pp $212 base $163 +0.5pp $112 +1.0pp $61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$48,750
Closing costs
$5,850
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL 3.0 2.5 1767 $2,095 $1.19 65d 1 0.20mi
13416 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL 3.0 2.5 1993 $2,395 $1.20 73d 1 0.20mi
13441 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL 3.0 3.0 1747 $2,295 $1.31 80d 1 0.20mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2162 $2,600 $1.20 78d 1 0.21mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2584 $3,000 $1.16 111d 1 0.31mi
13524 Camelot Ct Parrish, FL 3.0 2.5 1853 $2,350 $1.27 3d 1 0.59mi
13159 Stable Pl Parrish, FL 3.0 2.5 1404 $2,100 $1.50 0d 1 0.62mi
11824 Blue Diamond Trl Parrish, FL 4.0 3.0 2576 $2,995 $1.16 9d 1 0.63mi
12456 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2045 $2,699 $1.32 93d 1 1.15mi
12415 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL 4.0 2.5 2045 $2,700 $1.32 5d 1 1.19mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Parrish, FL 4.0 3.0 2537 $3,000 $1.18 65d 1 1.36mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL 4.0 3.0 2537 $3,000 $1.18 107d 1 1.36mi
10642 Chippewa Dr Parrish, FL 4.0 3.0 2435 $2,550 $1.05 9d 1 1.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Homestead exemption claimedLot size approx. 0.05 acresLiving area reported as 1,760 square feet (building area 1,947 sq ft)
HOA & community
HOA managed by ICON ManagementMonthly HOA fee: $366.22 (includes pool)Community amenities: Clubhouse, Fitness Center, Playground, Pool, Tennis CourtsPets allowed

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage (1 car)Carport (1 car)
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerPublic utilities
Home design
TownhouseTwo storiesFaces eastResidential property
Construction
Block constructionRoof overSlab foundationBuilt as part of building number 12420
Exterior features
BalconyAsphalt road access

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherRangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorWater softener
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetCeramic tile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air conditioning
Interior features
Ceiling fansWalk-in closets
Laundry & utility
Laundry roomWasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-22
    days on market $195,000 Active 137 DOM
  2. 2026-09-21
    days on market $195,000 Active 136 DOM
  3. 2026-09-20
    days on market $195,000 Active 135 DOM
  4. 2026-09-19
    days on market $195,000 Active 134 DOM
  5. 2026-09-18
    days on market $195,000 Active 133 DOM
  6. 2026-09-17
    days on market $195,000 Active 132 DOM
  7. 2026-09-16
    days on market $195,000 Active 131 DOM
  8. 2026-09-15
    days on market $195,000 Active 130 DOM
  9. 2026-09-14
    days on market $195,000 Active 129 DOM
  10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $195,000 Active 128 DOM
  11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $195,000 Active 127 DOM
  12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $195,000 Active 126 DOM
  13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 120 DOM
  14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 119 DOM
  15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 118 DOM
  16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 115 DOM
  17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 114 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $195,000 Active 113 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    remarks 699-char remark
  20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $195,000 Active 112 DOM
  21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $195,000 Active 111 DOM
  22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $195,000 Active 110 DOM
  23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $195,000 Active 109 DOM
  24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $195,000 Active 108 DOM
  25. 2026-08-23
    days on market $195,000 Active 107 DOM
  26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $195,000 Active 106 DOM
  27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $195,000 Active 105 DOM
  28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $195,000 Active 104 DOM
  29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $195,000 Active 103 DOM
  30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $195,000 Active 102 DOM
  31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $195,000 Active 101 DOM
  32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $195,000 Active 100 DOM
  33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $195,000 Active 99 DOM
  34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $195,000 Active 98 DOM
  35. 2026-08-13
    days on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
  36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $195,000 Active 96 DOM
  37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $195,000 Active 95 DOM
  38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $195,000 Active 94 DOM
  39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $195,000 Active 93 DOM
  40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 92 DOM
  41. 2026-08-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 91 DOM
  42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $195,000 Active 90 DOM
  43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $195,000 Active 89 DOM
  44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 88 DOM
  45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 87 DOM
  46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 84 DOM
  47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $195,000 Active 82 DOM
  48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $195,000 Active 81 DOM
  49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $195,000 Active 77 DOM
  50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $195,000 Active 76 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$5,348 · $446/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$5,348 · $446/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$31,571
− Mortgage interest
−$10,923
− Property taxes
−$5,348
− Insurance
−$975
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,526
− Management
−$2,526
− HOA
−$4,392
− Depreciation
−$5,673
Taxable loss
−$791
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$190
After-tax cash flow
$2,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,800–$26,400 screening

This well-maintained townhouse in Prosperity Lakes offers a good balance of modern amenities and a resort-style living experience. With minor updates, it can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters.
  • Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
  • Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers.
  • Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
  • Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers and renters.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virgil Mills Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Manatee
NCES district ID
1201230
Math proficiency
54% ▼ -6.00%
Reading proficiency
50% ▼ -2.00%
Median HH income
$49,607
Composite
44.43/100
National rank
#2806
State rank
#26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

County
Manatee County · 447,342 people
City population
33,296
Metro
North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
Population (ZIP)
33,296
Household income
$113,773
Rent vs Own
8.1% rent · 91.9% own
Severe rent burden
16% of renters

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
447,342 people
By 2030
488,911 · +9.3%
By 2040
567,934 · +27.0%
By 2050
637,995 · +42.6%
By 2075
781,970 · +74.8%
By 2100
848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (75%)
Race & ethnicity
White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
Common ancestry
Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
Foreign-born
10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
Languages at home
88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

2024 margin
Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
2008→2024 swing
-16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
All cycles
2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-35.9% since first listed
9 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-18 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-27 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-17 Relisted Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-14 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-20 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-04 Listed $225,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-07-27 Sold (MLS) $304,345 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-03-20 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2023-03-08 Listed $304,345 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+218.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,348 · -26.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…