12420 Crystal Jade Way · Ruskin, FL 34219

$195,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,760 sqft · Townhouse public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition 2,161 sqft lot Est $243k · 20% under $366/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. You will love living at the Abacos. With 1,747 square feet, three bedrooms and two bathrooms, this two-story townhome provides plenty of space for the entire family. This home is perfect for anyone who loves to cook, with a huge kitchen and pantry, along with a large dining room for entertaining. A covered patio offers an outdoor view with shade from the Florida sun. Upstairs there is a large master suite with walk-in closet and his and her sinks, as well as two additional bedrooms. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built

Key facts

• Water views
• Pickleball courts
• Resort style pool

Tags

• PROSPERITY LAKES COMMUNITY
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• TENNIS COURTS
• WATER VIEWS
• COMMUNITY PIER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption claimed; Lot size approx. 0.05 acres; Living area reported as 1,760 square feet (building area 1,947 sq ft)
• HOA & community: HOA managed by ICON Management; Monthly HOA fee: $366.22 (includes pool); Community amenities: Clubhouse, Fitness Center, Playground, Pool, Tennis Courts; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Carport (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Townhouse; Two stories; Faces east; Residential property
• Construction: Block construction; Roof over; Slab foundation; Built as part of building number 12420
• Exterior features: Balcony; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Water softener
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $324 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $183k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($183k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.12%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12680 Peaceful Peridot Way	0.18mi	3/3.0	1,747 (-1%)	1mo	$238,000	$136	87
12676 Peaceful Peridot Way	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,714 (-3%)	3mo	$235,000	$137	85
13526 White Gold Run	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,747 (-1%)	11mo	$249,900	$143	85
12628 Peaceful Peridot Way Unit na	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,747 (-1%)	8mo	$241,500	$138	84
13575 White Gold Run	0.09mi	3/2.5	2,002 (+14%)	7mo	$253,250	$126	67
13535 White Gold Run	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+13%)	10mo	$274,990	$138	66
13523 White Gold Run	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+13%)	11mo	$269,900	$135	66
13518 White Gold Run	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+13%)	10mo	$262,340	$132	65
12751 Crystal Jade Way	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,993 (+13%)	10mo	$255,540	$128	60
13204 Stable Pl	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,704 (-3%)	7mo	$299,999	$176	59
13154 Stable Pl	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,558 (-12%)	3mo	$289,999	$186	49
13228 Stable Pl	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,558 (-12%)	2mo	$299,000	$192	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,875
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,375
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,835 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$446 /mo · $5,348/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$366
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $324

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,425

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,250	$1.27	2d	1	0.20mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,800	$1.30	3d	1	0.21mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	15d	1	0.31mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	11d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $366 · $4,392/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $195,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 65 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 56 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    status Active
16. 2026-05-14
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-20
    price $215,000
18. 2026-04-04
    listed $225,900 Active
19. 2023-07-27
    soldstatus $304,345 Closed 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Under Construction. You will love living at the Abacos. With 1,747 square feet, three bedrooms and two bathrooms, this two-story townhome provides plenty of space for the entire family. This home is perfect for anyone who loves to cook, with a huge kitchen and pantry, along with a large dining room for entertaining. A covered patio offers an outdoor view with shade from the Florida sun. Upstairs there is a large master suite with walk-in closet and his and her sinks, as well as two additional bedrooms. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built

20. 2023-03-20
    status Pending 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Under Construction. You will love living at the Abacos. With 1,747 square feet, three bedrooms and two bathrooms, this two-story townhome provides plenty of space for the entire family. This home is perfect for anyone who loves to cook, with a huge kitchen and pantry, along with a large dining room for entertaining. A covered patio offers an outdoor view with shade from the Florida sun. Upstairs there is a large master suite with walk-in closet and his and her sinks, as well as two additional bedrooms. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built

21. 2023-03-08
    listed $304,345 Active 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    Under Construction. You will love living at the Abacos. With 1,747 square feet, three bedrooms and two bathrooms, this two-story townhome provides plenty of space for the entire family. This home is perfect for anyone who loves to cook, with a huge kitchen and pantry, along with a large dining room for entertaining. A covered patio offers an outdoor view with shade from the Florida sun. Upstairs there is a large master suite with walk-in closet and his and her sinks, as well as two additional bedrooms. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,348 · $446/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,348 · $446/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,020
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,348
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,722
• − Management: −$2,722
• − HOA: −$4,392
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $1,265
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$304
• After-tax cash flow: $3,585/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained townhouse in Prosperity Lakes offers a good balance of modern amenities and a resort-style living experience. With minor updates, it can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters.
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
• Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-29.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Listed $225,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-27 Sold (MLS) $304,345 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-08 Listed $304,345 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+218.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,348 · -26.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.