12420 Crystal Jade Way · Parrish, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 6/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 28 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 3 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +17.9/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- 1% rule +8.5/10.0
- DSCR +5.6/10.0
- Schools +5.0/10.0
- Condition / age +3.8/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- Rent growth +2.3/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$195,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
Under Construction. You will love living at the Abacos. With 1,747 square feet, three bedrooms and two bathrooms, this two-story townhome provides plenty of space for the entire family. This home is perfect for anyone who loves to cook, with a huge kitchen and pantry, along with a large dining room for entertaining. A covered patio offers an outdoor view with shade from the Florida sun. Upstairs there is a large master suite with walk-in closet and his and her sinks, as well as two additional bedrooms.
Key facts
- Water views
- Pickleball courts
- Resort style pool
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $195k).
- Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.7% in Parrish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2985 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.35% ✓
- Cap rate
- 7.30%
- Cash-on-cash
- 3.58%
- DSCR
- 1.16
- GRM
- 6.2
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $293,186
- List price
- $195,000
- Delta
- -33.49%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13445 Noble Garnet Ln | 0.20mi | 3/2.5 | 1,747 (-1%) | 3mo | $231,995 | $133 | 87 |
| 12680 Peaceful Peridot Way | 0.18mi | 3/3.0 | 1,747 (-1%) | 4mo | $238,000 | $136 | 85 |
| 12676 Peaceful Peridot Way | 0.18mi | 3/2.5 | 1,714 (-3%) | 6mo | $235,000 | $137 | 83 |
| 12628 Peaceful Peridot Way Unit na | 0.13mi | 3/2.0 | 1,747 (-1%) | 11mo | $241,500 | $138 | 82 |
| 13526 Noble Garnet Ln | 0.20mi | 3/2.5 | 1,993 (+13%) | 1mo | $248,740 | $125 | 68 |
| 13575 White Gold Run | 0.09mi | 3/2.5 | 2,002 (+14%) | 10mo | $253,250 | $126 | 64 |
| 13204 Stable Pl | 0.64mi | 3/2.5 | 1,704 (-3%) | 10mo | $299,999 | $176 | 57 |
| 13134 Stable Pl | 0.62mi | 3/2.5 | 1,558 (-12%) | 0mo | $284,999 | $183 | 52 |
| 13224 Stable Pl | 0.65mi | 3/2.5 | 1,558 (-12%) | 2mo | $279,999 | $180 | 49 |
| 13223 Stable Pl | 0.63mi | 3/2.5 | 1,558 (-12%) | 3mo | $274,999 | $177 | 49 |
| 13154 Stable Pl | 0.63mi | 3/2.5 | 1,558 (-12%) | 6mo | $289,999 | $186 | 47 |
| 13228 Stable Pl | 0.66mi | 3/2.5 | 1,558 (-12%) | 5mo | $299,000 | $192 | 46 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -15.2%
- Equity multiple
- 0.48×
- Total profit
- $-28,545
- Equity at exit
- $29,075
- IRR
- -16.0%
- Equity multiple
- 0.27×
- Total profit
- $-39,715
- Equity at exit
- $16,860
Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 43 active · 8 under contract
- Months of supply
- 18.4 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $245,240 ($125/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 16 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- +33.7% above current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 34219
- Home prices YoY
- -23.7%
- Rents YoY
- -0.9%
- Active inventory
- 2985
- Price-to-rent
- 6.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,631 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,023
- Tax from tax record
- −$446 /mo · $5,348/yr
- Insurance
- −$81
- HOA
- −$366
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$552
- Net cashflow
- $163
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $273 | -5% $218 | +0% $163 | +5% $108 | +10% $53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-45 | -5% $59 | +0% $163 | +5% $267 | +10% $371 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $261 | -0.5pp $212 | base $163 | +0.5pp $112 | +1.0pp $61 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $48,750
- Closing costs
- $5,850
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 13 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1767 | $2,095 | $1.19 | 65d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 13416 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1993 | $2,395 | $1.20 | 73d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 13441 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1747 | $2,295 | $1.31 | 80d | 1 | 0.20mi |
| 12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2162 | $2,600 | $1.20 | 78d | 1 | 0.21mi |
| 12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2584 | $3,000 | $1.16 | 111d | 1 | 0.31mi |
| 13524 Camelot Ct Parrish, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1853 | $2,350 | $1.27 | 3d | 1 | 0.59mi |
| 13159 Stable Pl Parrish, FL | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1404 | $2,100 | $1.50 | 0d | 1 | 0.62mi |
| 11824 Blue Diamond Trl Parrish, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2576 | $2,995 | $1.16 | 9d | 1 | 0.63mi |
| 12456 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2045 | $2,699 | $1.32 | 93d | 1 | 1.15mi |
| 12415 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL | 4.0 | 2.5 | 2045 | $2,700 | $1.32 | 5d | 1 | 1.19mi |
| 11007 Tamarack Pl Parrish, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2537 | $3,000 | $1.18 | 65d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2537 | $3,000 | $1.18 | 107d | 1 | 1.36mi |
| 10642 Chippewa Dr Parrish, FL | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2435 | $2,550 | $1.05 | 9d | 1 | 1.37mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Homestead exemption claimedLot size approx. 0.05 acresLiving area reported as 1,760 square feet (building area 1,947 sq ft)
- HOA & community
- HOA managed by ICON ManagementMonthly HOA fee: $366.22 (includes pool)Community amenities: Clubhouse, Fitness Center, Playground, Pool, Tennis CourtsPets allowed
Exterior
- Parking
- Attached garage (1 car)Carport (1 car)
- Utilities
- Public waterPublic sewerPublic utilities
- Home design
- TownhouseTwo storiesFaces eastResidential property
- Construction
- Block constructionRoof overSlab foundationBuilt as part of building number 12420
- Exterior features
- BalconyAsphalt road access
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherRangeMicrowaveRefrigeratorWater softener
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms
- Flooring
- CarpetCeramic tile
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
- Heating & cooling
- Central heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Ceiling fansWalk-in closets
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry roomWasherDryer
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-22days on market $195,000 Active 137 DOM
-
2026-09-21days on market $195,000 Active 136 DOM
-
2026-09-20days on market $195,000 Active 135 DOM
-
2026-09-19days on market $195,000 Active 134 DOM
-
2026-09-18days on market $195,000 Active 133 DOM
-
2026-09-17days on market $195,000 Active 132 DOM
-
2026-09-16days on market $195,000 Active 131 DOM
-
2026-09-15days on market $195,000 Active 130 DOM
-
2026-09-14days on market $195,000 Active 129 DOM
-
2026-09-13days on market $195,000 Active 128 DOM
-
2026-09-12days on market $195,000 Active 127 DOM
-
2026-09-11days on market $195,000 Active 126 DOM
-
2026-09-05days on market $195,000 Active 120 DOM
-
2026-09-04days on market $195,000 Active 119 DOM
-
2026-09-03days on market $195,000 Active 118 DOM
-
2026-08-31days on market $195,000 Active 115 DOM
-
2026-08-30days on market $195,000 Active 114 DOM
-
2026-08-29days on market $195,000 Active 113 DOM
-
2026-08-28remarks 699-char remark
-
2026-08-28days on market $195,000 Active 112 DOM
-
2026-08-27days on market $195,000 Active 111 DOM
-
2026-08-26days on market $195,000 Active 110 DOM
-
2026-08-25days on market $195,000 Active 109 DOM
-
2026-08-24days on market $195,000 Active 108 DOM
-
2026-08-23days on market $195,000 Active 107 DOM
-
2026-08-22days on market $195,000 Active 106 DOM
-
2026-08-21days on market $195,000 Active 105 DOM
-
2026-08-20days on market $195,000 Active 104 DOM
-
2026-08-19days on market $195,000 Active 103 DOM
-
2026-08-18days on market $195,000 Active 102 DOM
-
2026-08-17days on market $195,000 Active 101 DOM
-
2026-08-16days on market $195,000 Active 100 DOM
-
2026-08-15days on market $195,000 Active 99 DOM
-
2026-08-14days on market $195,000 Active 98 DOM
-
2026-08-13days on market $195,000 Active 97 DOM
-
2026-08-12days on market $195,000 Active 96 DOM
-
2026-08-11days on market $195,000 Active 95 DOM
-
2026-08-10days on market $195,000 Active 94 DOM
-
2026-08-09days on market $195,000 Active 93 DOM
-
2026-08-08days on market $195,000 Active 92 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $195,000 Active 91 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $195,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $195,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $195,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $195,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-07-31days on market $195,000 Active 84 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $195,000 Active 82 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $195,000 Active 81 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $195,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $195,000 Active 76 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $5,348 · $446/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $5,348 · $446/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 6/10 Major
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $31,571
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,923
- − Property taxes
- −$5,348
- − Insurance
- −$975
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,526
- − Management
- −$2,526
- − HOA
- −$4,392
- − Depreciation
- −$5,673
- Taxable loss
- −$791
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$190
- After-tax cash flow
- $2,145/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This well-maintained townhouse in Prosperity Lakes offers a good balance of modern amenities and a resort-style living experience. With minor updates, it can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/renters. ↑
- Resale Updating the kitchen backsplash — A fresh backsplash can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
- Resale Updating the bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can make the bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
- Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
- Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase the home's appeal and value, especially for tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Manatee
- NCES district ID
- 1201230
- Math proficiency
- 54% ▼ -6.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -2.00%
- Median HH income
- $49,607
- Composite
- 44.43/100
- National rank
- #2806
- State rank
- #26 of 73 in FL
Livability — Parrish
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- County
- Manatee County · 447,342 people
- City population
- 33,296
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 33,296
- Household income
- $113,773
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 16% of renters
Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 447,342 people
- By 2030
- 488,911 · +9.3%
- By 2040
- 567,934 · +27.0%
- By 2050
- 637,995 · +42.6%
- By 2075
- 781,970 · +74.8%
- By 2100
- 848,272 · +89.6%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (75%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Manatee
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -84.45%
- Current HPI
- 271.7131
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -0.95%
- Metro
- North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
||
Price history
-35.9% since first listed9 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-18 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-27 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-17 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-05-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-04-20 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2026-04-04 Listed $225,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-07-27 Sold (MLS) $304,345 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-03-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2023-03-08 Listed $304,345 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Property tax history
+218.6%/yrLatest (2025): $5,348 · -26.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…