15877 Blass Valley Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$318,210

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,218 sqft · SingleFamily · 12 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,338 sqft lot Est $324k · at est. $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Ready in August 2026! The Fentress floor plan by Centex Homes showcases modern design and superior craftsmanship. Welcoming foyer entryway leads to the heart of the home – a spacious and open-concept living area. Well-designed layout seamlessly integrates the kitchen, dining, and living spaces, creating an inviting atmosphere for both everyday living and entertaining. The first-level owner’s suite is a private sanctuary designed for ultimate comfort. The primary bath walk-in shower offers a haven of relaxation. Spacious walk-in closet provides an abundance of storage. Three secondary bedrooms offer versatility to suit your lifestyle. The upstairs loft is ideal for hosting a game

Key facts

• 5,338 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $318,210

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Fentress plan)
• Exterior features: Located at 15877 Blass Valley Dr, Conroe, TX 77302; Living area approximately 2218

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec home — Fentress plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $318k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-747/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (11.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (11.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Jacinto El (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,921 of 4,322 statewide, top 45%, 547 students, 81% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1117 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $280,611 (11.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,828
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16189 Sepia Manor St	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,318 (+4%)	1mo	$349,355	$151	86
16310 Vivid Creek Ct	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,285 (+3%)	1mo	$315,000	$138	82
15969 Blass Valley Dr	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,036 (-8%)	1mo	$279,540	$137	82
15190 Wild Gully Way	0.11mi	4/2.5	2,392 (+8%)	1mo	$359,200	$150	81
15027 Rustic Moon Rd	0.32mi	4/2.5	2,285 (+3%)	1mo	$314,370	$138	80
14993 Rustic Moon Rd	0.33mi	4/3.0	2,356 (+6%)	0mo	$274,930	$117	72
15385 Dapple Bluff Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,937 (-13%)	1mo	$294,910	$152	68
15035 Rustic Moon Rd	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,466 (+11%)	1mo	$346,690	$141	66
14977 Rustic Moon Rd	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,466 (+11%)	1mo	$319,650	$130	64
16022 Tangled Vine Ln	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,360 (+6%)	0mo	$345,000	$146	62
15019 Rustic Moon Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,924 (-13%)	1mo	$314,860	$164	60
17155 Crimson Crest Dr	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,351 (+6%)	1mo	$349,000	$148	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-54,587
• Equity at exit: $47,446

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-48,760
• Equity at exit: $27,513

Cash invested: $89,099 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1117
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,669
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$398 /mo · $4,773/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,885

Max offer price $309,202

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $158	-5% $48	+0% $-62	+5% $-172	+10% $-282
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-173	+0% $-62	+5% $49	+10% $159
Rate	-1.0pp $98	-0.5pp $19	base $-62	+0.5pp $-145	+1.0pp $-229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,552
• Closing costs: $9,546
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	45d	1	0.09mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	45d	1	0.49mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	26d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $318,210 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $318,210 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $318,210 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $318,210 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $318,210 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $318,210 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 687-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   days on marketlisting id $318,210 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $318,210 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $318,210 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $318,210 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    remarks 25-char remark
13. 2026-06-04
    listed $318,210 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,825
• − Property taxes: −$4,773
• − Insurance: −$1,591
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,694
• − Management: −$2,694
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$9,257
• Taxable loss: −$6,120
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,469
• After-tax cash flow: $722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a modern interior and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further updates to enhance its curb appeal and modernize the interior for increased value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Resale Updating kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers.
• Resale Updating bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior brick and updating landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Updating kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Updating bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B