7722 Suffolk Valley Ln · Alvin, TX 77583

$270,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,835 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 147 Days on market

Built 2022 7,670 sqft lot Est $272k · at est. $71/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

SPACE, COMFORT, AND ROOM TO GROW. THIS HOME HAS IT ALL! Step inside and experience generously sized rooms designed to give everyone their own space while still feeling connected and comfortable. The open, airy layout creates an easy flow for everyday living, relaxing, and entertaining. Step outside and you’ll find a huge backyard that truly sets this home apart perfect for outdoor gatherings, playtime, gardening, or future enhancements tailored to your lifestyle. Whether you’re hosting weekend barbecues or enjoying quiet evenings under the Texas sky, this outdoor space offers endless possibilities. Situated in a growing Rosharon community with convenient access to nearby ameniti

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Huge backyard
• Outdoor gatherings

Tags

• HUGE BACKYARD
• OUTDOOR GATHERINGS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Community pool; Playground; Annual association fee of $850

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2022
• Construction: Brick exterior; Cement siding
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Fence (back yard); Private yard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Disposal; Kitchen island; Pantry; Walk-in pantry; Quartz counters; Breakfast bar; Pots & pan drawers
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (15 x 12); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 11); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10); Bedroom on first floor (11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity; Separate shower and tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Pots & pan drawers; Pantry; Quartz counters; Separate shower; Tub/shower combo; Walk-in pantry; Window treatments; Ceiling fan(s); Living/dining room
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (10.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $238k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.7% in Alvin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#704 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1139 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 8% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $271,580
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1103 Curly Angora Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,784 (-3%)	2mo	$285,000	$160	77
831 Petunia Falls Ln	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,833 (-0%)	2mo	$269,900	$147	72
7710 Murciana Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	2,061 (+12%)	3mo	$305,000	$148	71
7802 Murciana Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,061 (+12%)	2mo	$300,000	$146	70
1115 Della Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,879 (+2%)	3mo	$300,000	$160	66
8319 Tartan Ct	0.64mi	4/2.5	1,896 (+3%)	1mo	$260,000	$137	62
7219 Victorville Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,759 (-4%)	3mo	$267,000	$152	61
7227 Bakersfield Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (+3%)	0mo	$259,999	$137	56
827 Cloverdale Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,707 (-7%)	1mo	$258,600	$151	54
8223 Hush Heights Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,560 (-15%)	3mo	$230,000	$147	44
931 Modesto Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (-14%)	0mo	$275,000	$175	39
8318 Tartan Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,094 (+14%)	2mo	$255,900	$122	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-60,765
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.21×
• Total profit: $-91,694
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1139
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,704 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$702 /mo · $8,424/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$71
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,913

Max offer price $240,793

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7711 Sleek Flock Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2492	$2,850	$1.14	24d	1	0.12mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	43d	1	0.58mi
8210 Radial Ct Rosharon, TX	5.0	2.5	2506	$2,550	$1.02	43d	1	0.59mi
8043 House Bank Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2512	$2,550	$1.02	18d	1	0.60mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	43d	1	0.62mi
8414 Aster Glen Way Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2588	$2,650	$1.02	43d	1	0.62mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	22d	1	0.67mi
7218 Bakersfield Ct Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	2004	$2,200	$1.10	43d	1	0.69mi
6911 Rosemont Ct Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$1,750	$1.02	12d	1	0.76mi
1119 Toledo Bend Pass Rosharon, TX	5.0	3.0	2200	$2,500	$1.14	43d	1	0.78mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	43d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $71 · $852/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $270,000 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 146 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 145 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $250,000 Active 133 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $250,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 130 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 129 DOM
14. 2026-02-06
    historical Active Under Contract
15. 2026-01-22
    listed $250,000 Active
16. 2025-12-31
    historical
17. 2025-10-05
    price $278,000
18. 2025-07-18
    price $280,000
19. 2025-06-09
    listed $285,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,424 · $702/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,424 · $702/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$8,424
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,596
• − Management: −$2,596
• − HOA: −$852
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$6,349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,524
• After-tax cash flow: $-460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alvin

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #704
• US rank: #13148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 51,892
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $278,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-09 Listed $285,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

-3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,424 · +101.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.