8527 31st Ave S · Lakewood, WA 98499

$50,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Built 1973 Good condition Est $60k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated and move-in ready! Nestled in a desirable 55+ community with a clubhouse and pool, this charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers comfort, convenience, and thoughtful updates throughout. Enjoy updated laminate wood flooring, newer carpet, newer appliances, fresh interior and exterior paint, and a newer roof for added peace of mind. The open floor plan creates an inviting flow between the spacious living room, dining area, and kitchen, while the dining room features a built-in hutch for added storage and character. The utility area is conveniently located off the kitchen and includes a washer and dryer. Both bedrooms offer generous closet space. Outside, enjoy a covered fron

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Clubhouse
• Newer roof

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• UPDATED LAMINATE WOOD FLOORING
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• NEWER ROOF
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount $925; Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Located in Village Green park; Park approved for sale; Senior community with senior exemption; Approximately 150 homes in the park; Park amenities include clubhouse, common area, pool, high-speed internet availability, RV parking; Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Carport
• Utilities: Electric energy; Public water (water paid through park); Sewer paid through park; Power paid through park; Electric water heater located in laundry room; Xfinity internet available
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One level; Olympian model 64/14; Mobile home remains; Metal skirting
• Construction: Metal/vinyl construction; Torch down roof; Built as a manufactured house
• Exterior features: Metal/vinyl exterior; Paved lot; Has view; Tie down foundation

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Water heater; Awnings; Ceiling fan(s); Drapes; Landscaped; Patio/Porch/Deck; Walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry/utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $925 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Cap rate 28.5% vs local median 2.6% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in WA, #4,754 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Clover Park School District (urban): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #190 of 291 in WA (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Four Heroes Elementary (559 students, 92% FRL); Lochburn Middle School (510 students, 85% FRL); Clover Park High School (1,315 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 52% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $50,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.26%
• DSCR: 4.53
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $59,640
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8527 31st Ave S	0.00mi	2/1.0	840 (0%)	11mo	$40,000	$48	91
2906 93rd Street Ct S #23	0.51mi	2/1.0	784 (-7%)	6mo	$65,000	$83	60
3121 S 86th street Ct #87	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	950 (+13%)	14mo	$120,000	$126	54
3250 S 77th St #18	0.56mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	7mo	$35,000	$36	41
2508 96th St S #28	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	924 (+10%)	17mo	$66,000	$71	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.63×
• Total profit: $50,816
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.58×
• Total profit: $120,183
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98499

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,608 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $925

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 37%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $959	-5% $942	+0% $925	+5% $907	+10% $890
Rent	-10% $798	-5% $861	+0% $925	+5% $988	+10% $1,052
Rate	-1.0pp $950	-0.5pp $937	base $925	+0.5pp $912	+1.0pp $899

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2611 84th Street Ct S Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,895	$2.23	23d	6	0.15mi
8333 32nd Ave S Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,695	$1.99	3d	5	0.21mi
3422 86th St S Lakewood, WA	1.0	1.0	672	$1,295	$1.93	11d	2	0.31mi
3102 92nd St S Unit 3104 Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	708	$1,497	$2.11	23d	1	0.38mi
3418 90th St S Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	45d	1	0.42mi
2604 92nd St S Unit B Lakewood, WA	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	45d	1	0.43mi
2604 92nd St S Unit B Lakewood, WA	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	26d	1	0.43mi
3407-3411 92nd St S Unit 17 Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,395	$1.99	26d	1	0.45mi
3407-3411 92nd St S Unit 17 Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,395	$1.99	1d	1	0.45mi
3411 92nd St S Unit 15 Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,595	$2.28	26d	1	0.46mi
8420 S Tacoma Way Unit 1/2 Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	19d	1	0.47mi
3415 92nd St S Lakewood, WA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,200	$1.85	19d	1	0.47mi
3415 92nd St S Apt 2 Tacoma, WA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,200	$1.85	18d	1	0.47mi
8740 S Hosmer St Tacoma, WA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,100	$1.69	1d	1	0.50mi
8740 S Hosmer St #155 Tacoma, WA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,100	$1.47	26d	1	0.50mi
3232 94th St S Unit 15 Lakewood, WA	1.0	1.0	632	$1,150	$1.82	26d	1	0.54mi
8801 S Hosmer St Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	443	$1,795	$4.05	1d	26	0.60mi
2425 S 96th St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,225	$1.44	1d	14	0.61mi
9210 S Hosmer St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,685	$2.14	1d	11	0.62mi
9324 S Tacoma Way Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	16d	1	0.63mi
9318 S Steele St Unit D61 Tacoma, WA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	16d	1	0.68mi
9318 S Steele St Unit DD520 Tacoma, WA	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	45d	1	0.68mi
9318 S Steele St Unit Q367 Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	960	$1,650	$1.72	45d	1	0.68mi
1801 S 84th St Tacoma, WA	1.0	1.0	725	$1,295	$1.79	26d	1	0.71mi
1819 S 93rd St Unit A Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	912	$1,575	$1.73	12d	1	0.73mi
1819 S 93rd St Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	912	$1,588	$1.74	19d	2	0.73mi
1718 S 84th St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	730	$1,445	$1.98	12d	2	0.77mi
9314 S Ash St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,683	$2.10	1d	20	0.77mi
1721 S 82nd St Unit 1813-10 Tacoma, WA	1.0	1.0	609	$1,300	$2.13	4d	1	0.81mi
1721 S 82nd St Unit 1807-02 Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	897	$1,500	$1.67	4d	1	0.81mi
9315 S Ash St Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.5	828	$1,550	$1.87	18d	1	0.81mi
1721 S 82nd St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	753	$1,400	$1.86	25d	3	0.83mi
1721 S 82nd St Tacoma, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	753	$1,500	$1.99	6d	4	0.83mi
2301 S 74th St Tacoma, WA	1.0	1.0	580	$1,295	$2.23	0d	1	0.88mi
2415 100th Street Ct S Tacoma, WA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	912	$1,600	$1.75	6d	2	0.89mi
10102 Sales Rd S Lakewood, WA	1.0	1.0	663	$1,320	$1.99	1d	20	0.95mi
10102 Sales Rd S Lakewood, WA	2.0	1.0–1.5	596	$1,550	$2.60	45d	26	0.95mi
6815 S Warner St Tacoma, WA	3.0	1.0	1034	$2,400	$2.32	4d	1	1.14mi
2201 104th St S Tacoma, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$1,998	$2.15	0d	19	1.18mi
6830 Tacoma Mall Blvd Tacoma, WA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,560	$1.59	1d	2	1.22mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $50,000 Active
2. 2025-08-01
   soldstatus $40,000 Closed
3. 2025-07-23
   status Pending
4. 2025-07-10
   price $44,000
5. 2025-06-10
   listed $49,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,544
• − Management: −$1,544
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $10,952
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,629
• After-tax cash flow: $8,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, offering a comfortable and attractive living space.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace carpet in living areas — New carpet improves comfort and appearance
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace carpet in living areas — New carpet improves comfort and appearance ↑
• Both Upgrade kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clover Park School District
• NCES district ID: 5301410
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,344
• Composite: 40.11/100
• National rank: #7858
• State rank: #190 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4754

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment B- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 61,673
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 32,464
• Household income: $67,292
• Rent vs Own: 62.1% rent · 37.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2313.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 15% Asian 8% Pacific Islander 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 16% Korean 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -536.54%
• Current HPI: 288.2797
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.00%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+2.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $50,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Sold (MLS) $40,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $44,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-10 Listed $49,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid