4116 Black Forest Trl · Cleburne, TX 76058

$124,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1981 1.00 ac lot $103/sqft · 33% below area Est $186k · 33% under ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this prime, oversized 1-Acre Corner Lot in Joshua, Texas! Amazing Investment Opportunity, property being sold As -Is. Very Affordable home ownership, conveniently located outside of city limits and free from HOA Restrictions. lots of space to dream and roam, For a Family enjoying country living and is less than 10 minutes to Chisholm Trail Parkway.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1981

Tags

• OVERSIZED 1-ACRE CORNER LOT
• FREE FROM HOA RESTRICTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 1.00 acre; Subdivision: Cherry Ridge Ph 02; County: Johnson
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, and VA loan
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; 1 covered space; 1 carport space
• Utilities: All-weather road access; Electricity connected; Rural water district; Septic
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One story; Preowned (built in 1981)
• Construction: Metal roof; Built in 1981; Smart home features present
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level); Primary bedroom(s) with walk-in closet(s)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating
• Interior features: Cable TV available; One living area; One dining area; 3 total rooms; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: No separate laundry details provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rb Godley El (511 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 420 active listings in the ZIP; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.94%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $185,821
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -32.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8333 Birdsong Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,178 (-3%)	6mo	$189,900	$161	79
4233 W Fm 917	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	6mo	$190,000	$156	78
4204 Cherry Ridge Ln	0.14mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,216 (0%)	13mo	$425,000	$350	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $16,355
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $61,662
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76058

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Active inventory: 420
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,602/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,254

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $644	-5% $608	+0% $573	+5% $538	+10% $502
Rent	-10% $417	-5% $495	+0% $573	+5% $651	+10% $729
Rate	-1.0pp $636	-0.5pp $605	base $573	+0.5pp $540	+1.0pp $508

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    listed $124,900 Active 361-char remark
16. 2024-03-06
    price $155,000
17. 2024-02-18
    listed $165,000 Active
18. 2017-08-28
    soldstatus
19. 2001-12-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,602 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,602 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,602
• − Insurance: −$1,422
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $5,292
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $5,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 29,538
• Population (ZIP): 21,531

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.22%
• Current HPI: 265.6513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $124,900 NTREIS
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $155,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-18 Listed $165,000 NTREIS
• 2017-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-12-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,602 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.