506 County Road 5015 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Manufactured · 757 Days on market

Built 2016 0.46 ac lot $82/sqft · 22% below area Est $115k · 22% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 37% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large cleared lot with open space for garden and animals. Country style living , completely fenced. Mobil home needs some work, but good solid condition.

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 2016
• Listed 756 days

Tags

• OPEN SPACE FOR GARDEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $638 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 757 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 757 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.40%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $115,000
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -21.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $27,672
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.30×
• Total profit: $83,184
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $952/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $638

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 757 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 756 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 755 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 754 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 752 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 748 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 747 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 746 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $89,900 Active 743 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 742 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 741 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 740 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 739 DOM
14. 2026-03-14
    price $99,500 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Large cleared lot with open space for garden and animals. Country style living , completely fenced. Mobil home needs some work, but good solid condition.

15. 2024-10-22
    price $125,000 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Large cleared lot with open space for garden and animals. Country style living , completely fenced. Mobil home needs some work, but good solid condition.

16. 2024-08-24
    price $139,500 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Large cleared lot with open space for garden and animals. Country style living , completely fenced. Mobil home needs some work, but good solid condition.

17. 2024-08-16
    price $149,500 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Large cleared lot with open space for garden and animals. Country style living , completely fenced. Mobil home needs some work, but good solid condition.

18. 2024-05-21
    listed $159,000 Active 153-char remark

    Show marketing remark (153 chars)

    Large cleared lot with open space for garden and animals. Country style living , completely fenced. Mobil home needs some work, but good solid condition.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $952 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$693/yr (+$58/mo · 72.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$952
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,515
• − Management: −$1,515
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $6,607
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,586
• After-tax cash flow: $6,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-37.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Price Changed $99,500 HARMLS
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-24 Price Changed $139,500 HARMLS
• 2024-08-16 Price Changed $149,500 HARMLS
• 2024-05-21 Listed $159,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $952 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.