411 Third St · Juneau, AK 99801

$270,000

4 bd · None ba · 2,363 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 1939 Poor condition 7,339 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A unique investment opportunity in Juneau's Historic District. This estate sale includes 411 Third Street bundled with 235 Gold Street for $270,000. Both are sold AS IS. Four vacant buildings remain with personal items. Street and front-of-property parking available. Prime location near the Baranof Hotel and downtown amenities.

Key facts

• 7,339 sq ft lot
• Built 1939
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $254k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 2.6% in Juneau — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#3 in AK, #703 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Juneau Borough School District (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #9 of 21 in AK (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 179 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 114 units permitted in Juneau City and Borough in 2024 (82 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Juneau County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $253,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.23%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-22,727
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $7,398
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99801

• Active inventory: 179
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$338 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $270,000 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $270,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $270,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $270,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-05-30
   days on market $270,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-04-06
   listed $270,000 Active 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Estate sale in Juneau's Historic District: 411 Third St + 235 Gold St for $270K. Sold AS IS with four vacant buildings. Street parking, prime walkable location near the Baranof. Rare investment opp

9. 2026-04-06
   listed $270,000 Active 197-char remark

   Show marketing remark (197 chars)

   Estate sale in Juneau's Historic District: 411 Third St + 235 Gold St for $270K. Sold AS IS with four vacant buildings. Street parking, prime walkable location near the Baranof. Rare investment opp

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,668
• − Management: −$2,668
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$367
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$88
• After-tax cash flow: $4,041/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs, including roof and exterior siding, to become move-in ready. Significant value can be added through these repairs.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Structural damage and snow accumulation
• Major exterior siding — Visible damage and snow accumulation

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof repair — Critical to safety and appearance
• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Structural damage and snow accumulation	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Visible damage and snow accumulation	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both roof repair — Critical to safety and appearance ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Juneau Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200210
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $81,032
• Composite: 35.76/100
• National rank: #4845
• State rank: #9 of 21 in AK

Livability — Juneau

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #703

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Juneau, AK
• County: Juneau Borough · 29,588 people
• City population: 29,588
• Metro: Juneau, AK
• Population (ZIP): 29,588
• Household income: $102,217
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 660.0

Population outlook (Juneau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,707 people
• By 2030: 38,658 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 42,270 · +15.2%
• By 2050: 46,086 · +25.6%
• By 2075: 58,476 · +59.3%
• By 2100: 69,228 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Two or more races 17% Native American 8% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 3% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Juneau

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.89%
• Current HPI: 170.9025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Juneau, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $270,000 AKMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $270,000 AKMLS