161 Boxberry Way · Wylie, TX 75407

$199,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,213 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2023 5,009 sqft lot Est $194k · at est. $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the perfect blend of contemporary style and resort-style amenities in this stunning 3-bedroom, 2.5-bathroom home built in 2023. This thoughtfully designed residence features a bright, open-concept floor plan with sleek ceramic tile flooring in the main living areas and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The modern kitchen flows seamlessly into the family room, making it ideal for daily life and quiet evenings at home. Located in the premier Bridgewater subdivision, you'll enjoy unparalleled community perks including a sparkling swimming pool, fitness center, sand volleyball courts, and scenic walking trails near Lake Lavon. With energy-efficient features throughout and easy access to

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Swimming pool
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SWIMMING POOL
• FITNESS CENTER
• SAND VOLLEYBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Bridgewater Ph 5; Directions available
• Financial info: Listing accepted various financing types including cash, conventional, FHA (contact agent for details); Short sale special listing condition
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; HOA semi-annual fee; HOA includes full use of facilities, grounds maintenance, and management fees; HOA managed by Bridgewater Residential Community Inc

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking space; Attached garage (1-car) with garage door opener; Additional parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Located in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property; Newer construction (built in 2023)
• Construction: Siding exterior; Asphalt/composition roof; Built in 2023
• Exterior features: Less than 0.5 acre lot; Concrete driveway; Curbs

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on upper level with built-in cabinets)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Granite counters; Cable TV available; High speed internet available; Built-in cabinets
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room; Stacked washer/dryer area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $179k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (2.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.0% in Wylie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#419 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mayfield El (609 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 73% FRL vs 56% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1404 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,474 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $194,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6422 Willet Rd	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+4%)	4mo	$201,949	$160	66
6507 Glade St	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+4%)	2mo	$209,999	$166	63
6517 Glade St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+4%)	3mo	$206,999	$164	58
6513 Waterfall Ln	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,099 (-9%)	1mo	$219,000	$199	53
6308 Sandpiper Ln	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+12%)	1mo	$217,999	$160	52
6312 Sandpiper Ln	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+12%)	2mo	$192,999	$142	51
6524 Shoreline Ln	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,098 (-10%)	1mo	$215,000	$196	50
724 Wagtail Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+12%)	1mo	$195,999	$144	50
6305 Whimbrel Way	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+12%)	3mo	$191,999	$141	49
719 Wagtail Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+12%)	2mo	$192,999	$142	49
804 Wagtail Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,360 (+12%)	3mo	$187,499	$138	46
5509 Timber Point Dr	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,039 (-14%)	4mo	$199,000	$192	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-44,770
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-69,204
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75407

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 1404
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,937 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$456 /mo · $5,473/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,077

Max offer price $179,474

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-54	+0% $-111	+5% $-167	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-264	-5% $-187	+0% $-111	+5% $-34	+10% $42
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-60	base $-111	+0.5pp $-162	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Plumcove Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	3.0	1376	$2,150	$1.56	44d	1	0.05mi
241 Boxberry Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,725	$1.22	44d	1	0.12mi
228 Rubylace Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,700	$1.18	44d	1	0.24mi
5836 Timber Point Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,875	$1.30	19d	1	0.26mi
5825 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,780	$1.24	44d	1	0.28mi
5817 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1411	$1,624	$1.15	21d	1	0.29mi
134 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,825	$1.27	19d	1	0.31mi
5836 Crystal Water Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,799	$1.21	6d	1	0.31mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,785	$1.21	8d	1	0.31mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,785	$1.21	17d	1	0.31mi
5733 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,720	$1.36	44d	1	0.33mi
5724 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$2,050	$1.62	25d	1	0.34mi
5720 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	3.0	1500	$2,205	$1.47	6d	1	0.34mi
6114 Holly Spring Rd , TX	2.0	2.5	1351	$1,550	$1.15	13d	1	0.35mi
6114 Holly Spring Rd , TX	2.0	2.5	1130	$1,675	$1.48	44d	1	0.35mi
6203 Holly Spring Rd , TX	2.0	2.5	1130	$1,595	$1.41	44d	1	0.35mi
5708 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,925	$1.34	44d	1	0.36mi
402 Harvest St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,665	$1.16	13d	1	0.38mi
318 Mahogany Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	25d	1	0.40mi
214 Wheatgrass Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,699	$1.21	44d	1	0.41mi
5644 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,800	$1.43	44d	1	0.41mi
6445 Middlebury Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,649	$1.30	8d	1	0.42mi
5808 Cherry Hollow Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,749	$1.39	18d	1	0.43mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,849	$1.25	25d	1	0.48mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$1,749	$1.18	6d	1	0.48mi
119 Cypress Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,750	$1.39	44d	1	0.49mi
330 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,800	$1.22	19d	1	0.50mi
623 Linden Rd Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,650	$1.16	44d	1	0.50mi
427 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1482	$1,800	$1.21	4d	1	0.51mi
600 Sandhill Crane Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,100	$1.50	13d	1	0.51mi
6550 August Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,695	$1.20	4d	1	0.53mi
6018 Primrose Rd , TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1484	$1,800	$1.21	4d	5	0.53mi
6561 Alfalfa St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,599	$1.11	44d	1	0.54mi
320 Dewberry St Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,745	$1.18	13d	1	0.55mi
6222 Sandpiper Ln Unit NA Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,750	$1.25	8d	1	0.57mi
5504 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX	3.0	2.0	1479	$1,999	$1.35	5d	1	0.57mi
6102 Pinion Trl , TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$1,600	$1.13	44d	1	0.58mi
211 Herman Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1295	$1,595	$1.23	44d	1	0.60mi
152 Thresher Ln Princeton, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	13d	1	0.62mi
724 Wagtail Dr Princeton, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,675	$1.23	3d	1	0.64mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   price $199,000
3. 2026-03-20
   price $219,000
4. 2026-02-08
   listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,473 · $456/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,473 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$5,473
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,859
• − Management: −$1,859
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,578
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,099
• After-tax cash flow: $-228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Princeton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,827
• Composite: 42.44/100
• National rank: #3226
• State rank: #188 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wylie

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #8623

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,171
• Household income: $100,037
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Mexico
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.99%
• Current HPI: 238.9373
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.02%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-08 Listed $225,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+143.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,473 · -4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.