303 E South Mountain Ave #49 · Phoenix, AZ 85042

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 3 Days on market

Built 1994 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Rent growth +1.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1994

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $840 monthly; No association fees listed; Community pool; Near bus stop

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 3 open parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Steel frame construction; Other roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front and back yard; Private maintained road; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Full bathroom in primary bedroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $971 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Roosevelt Elementary District (4279) (urban): math 8% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #234 of 249 in AZ (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Maxine O Bush Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,076 of 1,109 statewide, top 97%, 262 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 36% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.0%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.50%
• DSCR: 3.47
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $44,211
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.62×
• Total profit: $96,916
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85042

• Home prices YoY: -27.7%
• Rents YoY: -4.0%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $971

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8350 S Central Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1167	$2,070	$1.77	1d	8	0.29mi
11 E Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.5–2.5	1167	$2,045	$1.75	1d	4	0.43mi
120 W Dobbins Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	938	$1,345	$1.43	1d	3	0.51mi
300 E Jessie Owens Pkwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,666	$1.82	1d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $75,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,627
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $11,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,670
• After-tax cash flow: $8,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, including painting and minor repairs, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Painting — Interior walls and exterior siding need touch-up paint.
• Minor Roof inspection — Aging roof may need minor repairs or replacement.
• Minor Window cleaning — Windows appear dusty and could use cleaning.
• Minor HVAC maintenance — No visible issues, but may need cleaning or minor repairs.
• Minor Landscaping — Minimal landscaping could be improved with some updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and minor repairs — Improves both resale and rental value by enhancing the home's appearance.
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures the home is comfortable and energy-efficient, which is attractive to buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Painting · Interior walls and exterior siding need touch-up paint.	Minor	$500–3,000
Roof inspection · Aging roof may need minor repairs or replacement.	Minor	$500–3,000
Window cleaning · Windows appear dusty and could use cleaning.	Minor	$500–3,000
HVAC maintenance · No visible issues, but may need cleaning or minor repairs.	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Minimal landscaping could be improved with some updates.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$2,500–15,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and minor repairs — Improves both resale and rental value by enhancing the home's appearance. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Ensures the home is comfortable and energy-efficient, which is attractive to buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roosevelt Elementary District (4279)
• NCES district ID: 0407080
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $42,813
• Composite: 9.74/100
• National rank: #9829
• State rank: #234 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,903
• Household income: $88,717
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1624.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% Two or more races 29% White 25% Black 14% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.03%
• Current HPI: 318.0601
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.00%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $75,000 ARMLS